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Lukas Mergele

@lukasmergele

Policy consultant @ BSS Economic Consultants, Basel | Economist: Public Sector, Labor Markets, Education | Dad of 3 | German-Swiss musings | trains. https://sites.google.com/view/lmergele/home

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Latest posts by Lukas Mergele @lukasmergele

Economists: we award Nobel Prizes for work on efficient institutions and minimizing transaction costs.
Also Economists: the review process at the American Economic Review.

03.03.2026 17:09 πŸ‘ 171 πŸ” 39 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 0
The Craft of Publishing in Economics – Economists for Ukraine

Last chance to register for the publishing in economics workshop, #EconSky! (Registration closing Thursday)

Happening Mon, March 9, 12-1:30pm US EDT.

econ4ua.org/the-craft-of...

04.03.2026 01:39 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Nazis stopped Jewish doctors from practising, so thousands of them left the country (my great grandfather was one of them). So many left that this was a good natural experiment for estimating the causal effect of losing doctors on infant mortality (& thousands died)

26.02.2026 23:23 πŸ‘ 108 πŸ” 46 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3
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Netflix Backs Out of Bid for Warner Bros., Paving Way for an Ellison Takeover

The richest man owns X.

The second and third richest men control Google.

The fourth richest man owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

The fifth richest man owns The Washington Post.

And now the sixth richest could soon take over both Paramount and Warner Bros.

See the problem here?

26.02.2026 23:40 πŸ‘ 38946 πŸ” 16530 πŸ’¬ 1827 πŸ“Œ 1084
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KOF Konjunkturbarometer: Gefestigte positive Konjunkturaussichten Das KOF Konjunkturbarometer steigt im Februar. Nach leichtem RΓΌckgang im Vormonat setzt es nun die AufwΓ€rtsentwicklungen der vorhergehenden Monate fort und bleibt ΓΌber dem mittelfristigen Durchschnitt...

Das KOF Konjunkturbarometer steigt aktuell um 0.9 Punkte auf 104.2 Pkte. Die Indikatoren der Konsumnachfrage und der Auslandsnachfrage legen zu. Die des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes stecken dagegen zurΓΌck. Die positiven Aussichten fΓΌr die Schweizer Konjunktur festigen sich.

kof.ethz.ch/news-und-ver...

27.02.2026 08:35 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

cool paper!

27.02.2026 09:22 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Pretty clear message from Friedrich Merz on his China trip: curb overcapacity - or expect more EU protection in key sectors.

Unlikely to shift Beijing’s policy. But clarity about the problem is good diplomacy - and a useful signal to fellow EU member states too.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/w...

26.02.2026 10:05 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Danke fΓΌrs Versuchen!

26.02.2026 15:20 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, its a log scale, fairly standard for plotting long-run growth

26.02.2026 15:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The scaling gap is real: The EU has only 20% of the scale-ups found in the US and hosts just 110 unicorns vs 687 in the States.

A major culprit is legal fragmentation. Founders still navigate 27 different labor, insolvency, and tax laws – adding massive costs and complexity.

2/

26.02.2026 08:31 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
The figure shows the content of feeds, by self-declared partisanship. Average content shown to users in each feed setting: the chronological feed (grey) and the algorithmic feed (red). 95% confidence intervals reported.

Algorithms curate what users of social media see, raising concerns that they may distort attitudes and affect social and political outcomes. This column reports on an experiment conducted on X in the US in 2023, in which users were randomly assigned to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed significantly shifted political opinions in a pro-Republican direction, while switching the algorithm off had no comparable effect. This asymmetry arose because the algorithm affected which accounts users chose to follow, leaving a lasting imprint on their information environment even after algorithmic curation was removed.

The figure shows the content of feeds, by self-declared partisanship. Average content shown to users in each feed setting: the chronological feed (grey) and the algorithmic feed (red). 95% confidence intervals reported. Algorithms curate what users of social media see, raising concerns that they may distort attitudes and affect social and political outcomes. This column reports on an experiment conducted on X in the US in 2023, in which users were randomly assigned to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed significantly shifted political opinions in a pro-Republican direction, while switching the algorithm off had no comparable effect. This asymmetry arose because the algorithm affected which accounts users chose to follow, leaving a lasting imprint on their information environment even after algorithmic curation was removed.

Germain Gauthier, Roland Hodler, @phinifa.bsky.social, & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya show that switching users from a chronological to an algorithmic feed on X significantly shifted political opinions in a pro-Republican direction.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

26.02.2026 09:28 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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EU wants Russia to hold free elections and withdraw troops from Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Transnistriaβ€” as part of a Ukraine peace deal, leaked paper shows The document, circulated by EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas among member states, also calls for nuclear weapons removal from Belarus, reparations, and free elections inside Russia.

EU demands Russia withdraw troops from Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Transnistria, pull nukes from Belarus, pay reparations, and hold free elections β€” all as conditions for a Ukraine deal.

"We pay back to Russian maximalist demands on Ukraine."

πŸ”— euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/19/e...

19.02.2026 11:08 πŸ‘ 505 πŸ” 190 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 52
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Alles, was man hintergrΓΌndig zum China-Besuch des Kanzlers wissen muss, haben @tbenner.bsky.social und zwei Kollegen sehr konzentriert in ihrem Essay zum β€žChina-Schockβ€œ fΓΌr die @internationalepolitik.de aufgeschrieben, dringende Empfehlung.

25.02.2026 05:17 πŸ‘ 58 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 4

cc-ing @rbmyerson.bsky.social

24.02.2026 15:26 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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New report outlining how we used text embeddings to categorize >30 million products of the ECB's daily price dataset in a cost-efficient manner. The goal is to turn billions of prices into snapshots of current inflation: www.bis.org/publ/othp109...

23.02.2026 14:24 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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How Ukraine’s Economy Has Defied the Odds Tatyana Deryugina, Anastassia Fedyk and Yuriy Gorodnichenko identify the military, institutional, and financial factors behind the country’s remarkable resilience.

How did #Ukraine economy survive the RUS onslaught?

maybe a miracle but there are also fundamental factors :

1) defend skies, shipping lanes
2) fiscal stimulus ↑
3) vital int'l aid
4) play econ cards well
5) adaptability of private sector

#UkrainianView #EconSky

(w/ @tderyugina.bsky.social )

23.02.2026 18:54 πŸ‘ 98 πŸ” 40 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Iceland looks to fast-track vote on joining EU A referendum on resuming membership talks had been expected in 2027, but could come as early as this August.

The EU as a safe haven, who would have thought

www.politico.eu/article/icel...

23.02.2026 09:39 πŸ‘ 122 πŸ” 33 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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The political effects of X’s feed algorithm - Nature Among users initially on a chronological feed, 7 weeks of exposure to X’s algorithmic feed in 2023 shifted political attitudes and account-following behaviour in a more conservative direction compared...

Important paper on X algorithm effect on political views. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

23.02.2026 08:44 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

An outstanding expert on international trade clarifies the key point: Tariffs as an instrument of arbitrary power have been dismantled.

23.02.2026 05:40 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Locations of new homes built in Switzerland in 2018

Locations of new homes built in Switzerland in 2018

Country-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from
moving chains, by Lukas Hauck and Frederic Kluser

Country-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from moving chains, by Lukas Hauck and Frederic Kluser

Another new paper on housebuilding and vacancy chains, this time with data on every Swiss resident & housing unit! An interesting context given Switzerland's high immigration, very large rented sector and strong tenancy rent controls... frederickluser.github.io/files/Moving...

20.02.2026 15:53 πŸ‘ 169 πŸ” 50 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 20
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If you haven't yet changed how you teach and evaluate thanks to AI, you probably need to. This is not something that educators asked to happen, but it is worth noting what is out there - in this case an OpenClaw tool designed to cheat.

23.02.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 95 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 11

This is exactly right. The Onion quietly left Twitter a month ago and... our weekly subscribers went up. It's because we're doing well here, on Instagram and on YouTube.

As a business, being on Twitter is somewhere between useless or detrimental, unless you're selling boner pills.

23.02.2026 01:51 πŸ‘ 29444 πŸ” 4984 πŸ’¬ 333 πŸ“Œ 124
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In the absence of AI access, higher-education participants outperform lower-education participants by 0.548 standard deviations; with AI access, this gap falls to 0.139 standard deviations, from Cruces, FernΓ‘ndez Meijide, Galiani, GΓ‘lvez, and Lombardi www.nber.org/papers/w34851

22.02.2026 20:01 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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In der kommenden Nacht, um 04.00 Uhr am Morgen, gehen im historischen Herzen von #Basel die Lichter aus und der Morgenstraich begrüsst mit Trommeln, Piccolos und vielfarbig leuchtenden Laternen freudig die #Fasnacht 2026 🧑

22.02.2026 17:36 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Loosely related: In der Schweizer EE-FΓΆrderung wied immer zwischen sommerstrom und winterstrom differenziert. WΓ€re das nicht auch fΓΌr D hilfreich?

21.02.2026 19:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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β€žEin guter Tag fΓΌr die Institutionen – aber ein chaotischer fΓΌr die Wirtschaftβ€œ Der Supreme Court hat Trumps ZΓΆlle teilweise gekippt – und jetzt? Fragen an einen Handelsexperten.

Ein paar Beobachtungen aus dem @wifo.bsky.social zur SCOTUS-Entscheidung zu den IEPAA-ZΓΆllen im Interview mit Nils Heisterhagen ThePioneer

www.thepioneer.de/originals/ot...

20.02.2026 20:40 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Hey #econsky we know of any economists that wrote on the commons as a potential positive (aside from ostrom, her books r on my list already) from economic lens

19.02.2026 21:02 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Working fron home is polluting, study finds:

Additional residential emissions > commuting emmissions

18.02.2026 15:03 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

I built an alternative to all the big players that can run fully local, where people own their data. I get hate.

I picked OpenAI because they gave me better answers about encryption, responsibility and safety concerns for what I want to build next. I get hate.

17.02.2026 15:49 πŸ‘ 113 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 28 πŸ“Œ 0
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EVs must be 70% made in the EU to qualify for state support, Brussels says Draft legislation on local content by European Commission seeks to protect bloc’s manufacturing industries

European Union is planning to force EV manufacturers benefiting from state support to ensure that at least 70% of the components in their cars are made in the EU, as it seeks to protect the bloc’s industries from intense Chinese competition.

by @alicemhancock.bsky.social & Kana Inagaki

16.02.2026 22:51 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 6