Daniel Joyaux

I agree Supporting Actress is also wild! I just think the difference is that it’s very much three-woman race, with two additional nominees that I don’t actually think can win. Whereas Actor/Supporting Actor feel like genuine 5-way races. (At least to me.)

A few broad Oscar hot takes:

1. Both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor are races that I legitimately feel like all five nominees could win. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.

My posts are purely a reflection of the fact that I think this stuff is really interesting to think about and discuss! Totally fine, obviously, for anyone to disagree with that. But don’t ascribe brand-management-esque motives where there aren’t any.

I disagree with most of what you say in your many responses, but there’s no point in trying to litigate it until we just see what happens next week.

But one thing I will say: my posts aren’t an effort to get ahead of surprises. I’m not trying to hedge bets or cover bases…

(1/2)

It could certainly happen that way!

I think there’s too strong a chance that Best Cinematography goes to Train Dreams to really call it a bellwether category.

But I agree with you that IF it goes to either Sinners or One Battle, that will be very telling.

Apt for someone who literally made a documentary about Paul Newman!

Yeah, since Redford died I think Hawke is now in first place for the active leading-man career that feels most interesting and honorable.

I’m curious what you think I’m overthinking?

I assure you I’m not doing anything for the sake of drama. I don’t have a big enough following to make that worth it.

Yeah, anyone who says they “know” who’s winning these races is either lying to you, themselves, or both.

You should see it! It’s some A+ Hollywood escapism.

But wouldn’t “most editing” favor F1?

Final voting started last Thursday and ended yesterday. So the winners have already been decided! We just have to wait another nine days to find out what they are.

It really has incredible editing! Were I a voter, I’d probably pick One Battle for Best Editing, but it would be a tough call and I would agonize over it.

Anyway. I will make official predictions sometime next week. In most races, I really don’t know what I’ll predict yet. So I wanted to lay out some of my general thinking.

What a fun year!

I would love for you to be right! I’m rooting for him, but probably wouldn’t bet on him.

Usually when there’s a Picture/Director split, it’s a situation where voters are being pulled between what they actually like best vs what they think they’re supposed to like best.

I don’t think that’s a factor this year. Voters seem to genuinely love both movies.

6. People seem to think Best Director is sewn up for PTA.

I really don’t think it is. Gun to my head, I would still bet on PTA, but I think it’s a close race.

It will be really hard for voters to think Sinners is the best film of the year and not credit Coogler for that.

(Unless Best Editing goes to F1, which could totally happen! It’s a crazy year.)

Best Editing especially feels like the code breaker. There’s a world where neither Sinners or One Battle wins either Supporting race. (Madigan and Skarsgaard could easily be the two winners, for example.)

But more than likely, the Editing winner will be the Best Picture winner.

5. There are three categories that feel like they will really tip the Academy’s hand: Best Editing, and both Supporting categories.

Either Sinners or One Battle could easily sweep all three races. If that happens, the sweeper will obviously win Best Picture.

So I’m predicting that the Academy will heavily break in one direction or the other. But toward which movie? I still haven’t decided yet.

It’s really that close.

He was obviously correct, as all 7 swing states went right.

I think the same thing will happen with Sinners and One Battle. I feel like it’s unlikely both end the night winning five or six Oscars. It feels far more likely to me that one will win ~8 and the other will win ~2.

4. In thinking about Sinners vs. One Battle, I’m borrowing a James Carville theory.

In October ‘24, Carville said swing states rarely split down the middle in a presidential election. You almost never see 7 swing states split 3-4 between the candidates. Far more frequent that they break 6-1 or 7-0.

3. I could easily imagine Sinners or One Battle After Another winning three acting races. I could also easily imagine either of them winning zero acting races. They could even both get blanked in the acting races.

The potential variance really is that high.

What voting demo does that leave for Timmy?

Having said that, I also think he could still win. First place and fifth place both feel very on the table for him.

Never seen a race like this.

2. Also, if I had to bet, I kinda think Timmy gets the fewest votes of the five lead nominees.

MBJ and Leo are in the two most widely loved movies (which also strongly appeal to younger/cool voters), Wagner could dominate the international vote, and Hawke could dominate the older vote.

A few broad Oscar hot takes:

1. Both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor are races that I legitimately feel like all five nominees could win. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.

My hot take is he needs to get the fuck away from the Kardashians

Who’s the white face behind Dark Phoenix? Wendigo?