Michael Kovrig

My full testimony:
parlvu.parl.gc.ca/Harmony/en/P...

All my parliamentary appearances are here:
www.ourcommons.ca/committees/e...

Turning to China to hedge against Trump carries serious risks. Accommodation invites more coercion. The CCP playbook runs from inducements to dependency, to demands for deference, to coercion. Stay out of the doom-loop. More in my testimony to Canada’s House of Commons Committee on Trade last week.

What Xi’s really trying to do is behaviourally condition them to self-censor in return for economic crumbs and relief from bullying. It's propagandistic narrative control.

Xi’s framing is a dominance move that deliberately ignores that criticisms go public because it’s frustratingly hard to get access to Xi, and even when leaders do meet him, it usually doesn't accomplish anything for them, because the CCP has its own solipsistic agenda.

A "Correct" Perception of China It's not the one the Chinese Communist Party wants you to have. That's why it's crucial to decode what its diplomatic slogans really mean.

But what are we to do if we bring problems to the General Secretary, and he doesn't resolve them to our satisfaction?

More on my Substack in the link below. open.substack.com/pub/michaelk...

Canada’s PM reveals some clues about his discussion with China’s Xi in January. At a basic level, Xi articulated to Carney what everyone wants: "If you have a problem, talk to me directly. Don't criticize me publicly."

À mesure que les échanges s’approfondissent, les menaces à la sécurité, à la technologie et aux droits de la personne augmentent. Le silence sur les valeurs est un signal, et Pékin sait le lire.

L'accord Canada-Chine n'est pas sans risque, prévient Michael Kovrig | Sur le terrain Michael Kovrig, un ancien diplomate canadien en Chine, a été un des deux Canadiens détenus par Pékin pendant près de trois ans. Aujourd’hui, il appelle le Canada à faire preuve de prudence. Une rare e...

Le dialogue avec la Chine peut être utile, mais il ne doit pas normaliser la pression ni échanger un calme de court terme contre des risques à long terme.

Voir l’entrevue complète ici:
L'accord Canada-Chine n'est pas sans risque, prévient Michael Kovrig

En parlant avec Sur le terrain à Radio-Canada, j’ai expliqué pourquoi traiter avec la Chine n’est pas une question de confiance. Il s’agit de leviers, de contraintes et de conséquences. Le Canada doit composer avec le monde tel qu’il est.

Want to Counter China? Stop Tariffing Your Friends In this era of weaponized trade, America’s readiness to impose tariffs on friends and foes alike now barely raises eyebrows, while China’s economic coercion of its neighbors has become almost routine....

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... (paywalled)
Archived version: archive.is/qAXpa

Germany's China crisis The grim context for Chancellor Merz’s first official visit to Beijing

My latest on Germany’s China crisis: the grim context for Chancellor Merz’s first official visit to Beijing—and what Berlin needs to do to save German industry
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/germanys-c...

The Carney Doctrine Can Be More Than a Davos Speech Middle powers need real institutions to resist superpower gravity.

In a new essay for @foreignpolicy.com I offer some ideas on how. Links to all in the comments.

The Carney Doctrine Can Be More Than a Davos Speech
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/18/c...

I hope Chancellor Merz returns from his visit to China this week energized to work on Europe’s response, and that Canada’s Prime Minister Carney and his team arrive in Australia, India and Japan over the coming days ready for serious discussions on how to coordinate responses to stymie coercion.

Victor says, despite Trump’s volatility, “China is the greater immediate threat because of the vast control it has over global supply chains… For decades, Beijing has repeatedly used trade relationships to get its way. If countries don’t work together, they will be picked off one by one.”

EXACTLY.

Vaswani quotes the excellent Victor Cha, whose new book, “China’s Weaponization of Trade”, documents more than 600 cases of Chinese economic coercion over the past three decades. I look forward to reading it!

Countering the Chinese Communist Party’s bullying requires many countries to work together to provide collective resilience and raise the cost of intimidation.

The US should strengthen relationships in Asia to counter Beijing's strong-arm tactics, rather than straining them with its own volatile trade policy.

China routinely uses economic coercion, most recently on Japan. It blocks market access and chokes supply lines to send political messages and condition behaviour.

Want to counter China? Stop tariffing your friends. That’s the message to Trump in @karishmajourno.bsky.social’s latest @bloomberg.com column. I couldn’t agree more.

Defeatist Europe is set for growing dependence on China without decisive action Europe's executives and politicians need to recognize that only huge financial and geopolitical sacrifices today will save the region from greater pain tomorrow, says Jacob Gunter.European trouble wit...

Europe asking Chinese companies to reindustrialize the continent is rewarding the actors causing deindustrialization. MericsChina's Jacob Gunter: pay de-risking costs now on your terms, or higher costs later on Beijing's. Lessons for Canada, Australia & others too:

Germany's China crisis The grim context for Chancellor Merz’s first official visit to Beijing

Berlin chose trade over strategy while the CCP systematically built leverage over German corporations and, through them, the German government. This is weaponized interdependence. The visit is Merz’s chance to start ending it. More on my Substack:
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/germanys-china-crisis

German car exports to China have collapsed. Auto sector layoffs are in the hundreds of thousands. Yet German firms invested €7B in China last year. Beijing's massive industrial policy incentives, lower labour costs and economies of scale are the main drivers.

German Chancellor Merz landed in Beijing this week with 30 corporate bosses and a €90 billion trade deficit. His country’s relations with China face a crisis most people have yet to notice.

The CCP will conclude that coercion works and it can brutally silence dissidents, and a divided West will say little and do even less. What would Jimmy say?

archive.is/jrbOq (open access) 🤫

John Ivison: Lai sentence a test for Carney's new trade deal with China Early signs are that Ottawa is broadly in favour of the pursuit of justice, as long as it doesn’t hamper its trade policy.

The Liberal government is moving hastily to restore market access without thinking through the long-term price for Canadian industry, sovereignty and dignity.

Read his commentary: nationalpost.com/opinion/john... (paywall)

Jimmy Lai’s unjust 20-year prison sentence for promoting democracy, press freedom & criticizing the Communist Party stains Canada’s bid to stabilize relations with China. As I told @nationalpost.bsky.social's @johnivison.bsky.social, hedging Trump is pushing the Liberal government to move hastily.

China Shock 2.0 is coming for your advanced manufacturing The price of China’s beggar-thy-neighbour growth is deindustrialization for everyone else

China Shock 2.0 has become an existential threat to Germany’s economy. Read more on my Substack:

China: „Deutschland muss das ganze Ausmaß der Zeitenwende begreifen“ Der ehemalige Diplomat Michael Kovrig saß 1019 Tage in chinesischer Geiselhaft und kennt das Land so gut wie kaum jemand. Er spricht über den China-Schock und die Gefahr, die von Peking für Europa aus...

The CCP calls it "win-win." I call it elite capture—corporate hostages bound by supply chains and sunk investments. Which dependencies can still be unwound? Which companies are effectively lost? German original story here:

German Chancellor Merz heads to China this week with a 30-strong business delegation. The problem: some of those companies may already be more aligned with Beijing than Berlin. My Q&A with Handelsblatt is linked below

Without paywall: archive.is/SvHv1