@atabatabai
Public Service Fellow at Lawfare • Ex Pentagon & State Department • Recovering academic • Author of No Conquest, No Defeat (Oxford University Press) & co-author of Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China (Bloomsbury)
It's the “Attacking Iran” special edition!
On this week's Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, Daniel Byman, and @atabatabai.bsky.social for an in-depth discussion of the U.S. military operations against Iran. youtu.be/j-0aI-nLgIg
Even if one agrees with toppling the regime in Iran, this is an absolute mess in terms of planning & execution (& it’s just going to get worse).
Trump said everything is going way too fast. Yes, that’s how these things go. But everything that’s happening was predictable and predicted (for YEARS).
Yesterday morning, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org sat down with @sranderson.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and Troy Edwards to discuss the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran's response, and what may happen next.
Watch their discussion: youtube.com/live/mcld4DB...
LIVE NOW: @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @atabatabai.bsky.social, Troy Edwards, and @sranderson.bsky.social are discussing the U.S. strikes on Iran, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's response, and what may happen.
Watch their conversation: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
The next few days in Iran will be decisive. 2 things to watch for:
1. Whether regime uses the current chaos to further crack down on dissent (real & perceived). This is a scenario that has historical precedent and I worry about
2. Which factions emerge from this period in control of the situation
Tomorrow at 9am ET, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @atabatabai.bsky.social, Troy Edwards, and @sranderson.bsky.social will discuss the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran's response, and what may happen next.
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This is likely the first phase of counterattacks. The first two target-sets (US bases & energy) are part of the usual Iranian playbook, the third less so.
As I said on NPR this morning, we should expect a second phase once this one is over, which will play out in the gray zone internationally.
Thanks to @npr.org for having me on Weekend Edition this morning to talk about the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, what we can expect from the Iranian regime, and what’s next.
one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5726...
Here we have it: the admin is now signaling this is a war aimed at overthrowing the regime, not about the nuclear program.
Additional reporting is now indicating other cities in Iran are being hit as well, many with nuclear-related, missile, & military targets.
So the image that’s emerging is one of a much more comprehensive campaign than before, but one we expected might happen given the scale of the US build-up.
With this, the Trump admin may wish to keep this a limited conflict, starting and ending on its terms (as JD Vance suggested recently), but it may not succeed: the regime is weakened externally and internally, but it’s also feeling cornered, and that can drag us down an escalatory path.
If current reporting is accurate, the US-Israel strikes in Iran are not (just) targeting the nuclear program, but also hitting key regime facilities associated with its decisions making bodies (the supreme leader and supreme national security council)—some located in very densely populated areas.
Excited to share “AI Cooperation under the Shadow of China’s Digital Silk Road” tinyurl.com/3jkap6x5 examining how the PRC advances AI ties across the Global South & offers actionable recs for democracies to compete through partner agency, interoperability, sustainable financing,& capacity-building.
Yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened to invoke the Defense Production Act to compel Anthropic to provide its technology on the Pentagon's terms. @alanrozenshtein.com analyzes what the DPA can actually do here and what exactly the government is demanding.
On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social and @ebrewer.bsky.social joined @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org for a discussion of the likelihood of a U.S. strike on Iran, what the objectives would be, the legality of a strike, and more. youtu.be/IfNGVWjglL4
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with Daniel Byman, @michael-feinberg.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social to talk through some recent big news stories around the world, including Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference, U.S.-Iranian negotiations, and more.
Trump’s attempts to dominate allies come with many costs and few benefits, write @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social.
Today's Lawfare Daily is a panel with @sranderson.bsky.social, Claire Finkelstein, Christopher Maier, Larry Lewis, and Geoffrey Corn on the challenges of civilian harm mitigation in urban warfare environments at a conference hosted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law. youtu.be/bexOMyFLaPg
The Washington Post—for which I wrote editorials for nearly a decade—has closed its Kyiv bureau.
@lawfaremedia.org has not—and we will not.
We now employ more people in Kyiv than the Washington Post.
Let me tell you about what we have done in Ukraine over the past year and why we are not leaving
As Trump resumes negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, we’re learning more about the horrifying scale of the regime's atrocities. We talk about all of that here.
PS: Negotiating now w/ the regime is a mistake & emboldens it as it just killed more people than the CCP during Tiananmen.
For this second installment in our @lawfaremedia.org series on Trump's coercive approach to NATO, @j-dren.bsky.social & I look at how Russia views the tensions within the alliance.
The acute phase of the Greenland crisis may be over (for now), but Russia will keep benefiting from it.
lizzie johnson @lizziejohnsonnn · 49m I was just laid off by The Washington Post in the middle of a warzone. I have no words. I'm devastated. Quote lizzie johnson @lizziejohnsonnn · Jan 25 Waking up without power, heat, or running water. (Again.) But the work here in Kyiv continues. Warming up in the car, writing in pencil — pen ink freezes — by headlamp.
INBOX: Washington Post Ukraine Correspondent Lizzie Johnson announces that she has been laid off in the middle of a below-freezing war zone without power, heat, or running water.
This is the first in a series of @lawfaremedia.org articles @j-dren.bsky.social and I have coming out that look at the implications of the administration's coercive approach to alliances in general and NATO in particular.
Stay tuned:
On Lawfare Daily, @mollyroberts.bsky.social sat down with @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @j-dren.bsky.social to discuss the crisis over President Trump's threats to annex Greenland and its implications for the United States and NATO. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawf...
"One feels ridiculous, coming from a society that is busily, proudly endeavoring to destroy itself, spending time in a society that is working under the toughest of circumstances to preserve itself."
@benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org reflects on the Situation from Kyiv.
Today's world and domestic politics in the United States are no longer conducive to traditional methods of diplomacy in the context of nuclear nonproliferation. @atabatabai.bsky.social writes that Iran encapsulates this challenge—and provides an opportunity for the creation of a new toolkit.
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @tylermcbrien.com, @michael-feinberg.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s news in national security including the mass protests in Iran, ICE's increasingly provocative immigration enforcement, and more. youtu.be/vGQTeW9f3bI
Great conversation here with @richardmnephew.bsky.social—although I wish we were talking under different circumstances.
Noting that we’re just starting to learn what happened during the internet shutdown with the death toll drastically going up. This round of protests seem different.
The destruction doesn't make for a photo-op like tearing down the East Wing of the White House or bulldozing the Rose Garden, but it's every bit as bad. Generations of American children learned to spell and count, learned the Preamble to the Constitution, from watching shows produced by the CPB.
Coming up at 3 pm ET👇⬇️
