@pwatkinson
Longtime climate negotiator for France, sometimes EU, helped on Paris Agreement at COP21, advised COP28, chaired the UNFCCC SBSTA for a couple of years. Keen to see greatly strengthened action and collaboration on climate mitigation and adaptation.
Nous sommes extrêmement reconnaissants aux modérateurs Paul Watkinson (@pwatkinson.bsky.social) et Ramona Bloj, ainsi qu’à Luis Vassy et Ariane Joab-Cornu de Sciences Po pour l’organisation de cette séquence inédite.
Preliminary data suggests that the global average increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2024 will be a record.
Not just a little record, but 25% higher than the previous record.
(This is the global average, as opposed to Moana Loa)
gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
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I'm conscious that this is all easier said than done, and that this remains very much thinking in progress, but would be happy to engage on the ideas.
Finally, we will need better ways to access all the information - for once this might be a task for artificial intelligence might be able to provide an answer (not just hype).
Such an approach could give new relevance to the information produced by multiple processes that currently get little consideration beyond the development of a few lines in conclusions or decisions that few read. It could also help to put some order and ensure better follow-up to the action agenda.
- Use also as a platform to draw lessons and overview progress on the action agenda.
- Feed outputs from the many activities that are underway, such as work programmes, constituted bodies, transparency framework, into a presidency-led implementation forum.
- Simplify work under the COPs and SBs, not seek negotiated outcomes on all items at every session.
I have been saying for a long time that we need to reduce the space given to negotiation and find ways to make the UNFCCC process more relevant to supporting implementation and overcoming barriers to action. I have put some ideas in this article: www.linkedin.com/pulse/from-n...
Knowledge is the most powerful tool humanity has ever developed, it gives us the ability to understand what is happening around us and to take decisions on our future. Reactionary forces have always tried stop knowledge being developed and shared. Strength to you and all the others under attack.
None of this will be easy, but in the face of deliberate and active efforts to stop and slow down the climate transition, we need to learn from what works, and avoid what does not, in national and international contexts.
Third, we need to put some order into the mutlitude of initiatives launched by successive COP presidencies - some of them can make a huge difference, but others are little more than pure communication.
Second, the multilateral climate process needs to deliver concrete support to action. Of course, we will still need to negotiate to agree ways forward on some points, but we must stop negotiating everything - that just plays into the hands of those who want to slow things down.
First, we need to develop climate policies that respond to peoples' hopes and expectations - cutting emissions, managing the transtion do not give them hope - we can build policies that offer a vision of their personal growth and the future for their children.
Three main ideas:
Some thoughts on how we might respond in this article on my LinkedIn page: www.linkedin.com/pulse/respon...
It’s tempting to despair, but there are some reasons to remain positive, and above all to strengthen the fight for climate action. But if we are going to succeed, we need to avoid past mistakes and get a clearer idea of what works, and what doesn’t.
Meanwhile, major oil companies are abandoning any plans to diversify their investments and returning to what they know best, producing more oil and gas. Banks and other financial institutions are backing out of agreements to transform their investments.
Other countries profess their continued support for climate action, but in the face of mounting opposition many are increasingly tempted to slow down implementation or water down their domestic climate policies, and budget constraints are leading them to cut their development assistance in turn.
Instead his administration is encouraging fossil fuel production, openly attacking climate science (with consequences for all of us), and ending aid to developing countries.
And yet, rather than responding to the growing climate crisis, Donald Trump is taking the world’s biggest economy and the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases out of the Paris Agreement.
These are troubling times for anyone concerned about the climate – and that ought to be just about everyone on the planet. Global temperatures have hit record highs, extreme events are multiplying.
So, a question on whether climate change might play a role in record high temperatures is not "on-topic" ...
Parabéns, good luck to André Corrêa do Lago ! A great choice to lead COP30, a huge challenge ahead.
I have a new paper in Dialogues on Climate Change exploring climate outcomes under current policies. I find that we are likely headed toward 2.7C by 2100 (with uncertainties from 1.9C to 3.7C), and that high end emissions scenarios have become much less likely.
journals.sagepub.com...
Pushing ahead, strengthening and accelerating climate action is the best response for the rest of the world to the US decision.
Finally, the order provides for the US withdrawal to be effective immediately. That is a unilateral reading of the provision that requires a year to take effect. But that also means that the US cannot claim the right to slow down decision-making anymore.
It is not just the headline figures that count, but the ability to transform targets into detailed policy frameworks and investment plans.
Overall ambition is unlikely to be as high as is needed, but the incoming Brazilian COP30 presidency, along with the UN Secretary General, can use their responsibilities to push hard for stronger implementation and collaboration.
The first test will be the new nationally determined contributions that parties are due to submit in the coming weeks.