Miles Kellerman

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

Betting on Regime Change Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.

Seems like an apt time to repost this —>

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

Just thinking about how lots of people in the White House are making money off of this

Betting on Regime Change Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.

Agree and wrote on this after Venezuela: open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

It is hard to ignore the convenience of this initiative for American social media companies who might otherwise be restricted by campaign finance laws

Orange County Syndrome How the birthplace of subprime mortgages paved the way for Trump's rise.

What explains Trump's rise? How did we get here?

There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California.

Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...

Writing in the Oxford Business Law Blog, I argue we face a "Detection Trilemma" in financial crime.

The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results.

#econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance

blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...

Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.

“European officials, on the other hand, talk incessantly about the anti-coercion instrument, but it still fails to deter because they seem so extraordinarily reluctant to deploy it.”

@himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed.

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...

To prevent miscalculation, avoid US taking Greenland, Europe has to disabuse the US of the notion that it is weak. This means clearly signaling what's on the table to deter action. To deter, Europe has to be clear. The problem is Euro foreign policy is anything but clear. 9/

They did after 9/11, it's a historical fact.

The thing to know about the PM of Canada is he just signed a trade deal with China. He is as serious as a heart attack about this.

LIVE: PM Carney delivers special address at World Economic Forum YouTube video by CTV News

"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination."

"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."

In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.

www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...

Betting on Regime Change Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.

Enjoyed this. I wrote a piece last week expressing similar sentiments (👇). The problem is not just the gamification of world events; it's also their reduction to binary outcomes, a trend that warps reality and encourages the worst forms of nihilism.

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...

Betting on Regime Change Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.

Hi Brian, I wrote a piece last week expressing similar sentiments that might be of interest —>

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

May be of interest to @weisenthal.bsky.social @tracyalloway.bsky.social @mattlevineofficial.bsky.social @katie0martin.ft.com @profgalloway.com @mims.bsky.social #kalshi #polymarket

Betting on Regime Change Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.

Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro.

Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...

My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Betting on Regime Change Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.

With suspiciously perfect timing, someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's ousting.

In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.

#polisky #econsky #lawsky

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...

The Trump Doctrine in Venezuela Richard Haass explains why the US military intervention and arrest of Nicolás Maduro will play well in Beijing and Moscow.

5/This is not a world marked by spheres of interest in the traditional sense because the focus is not about competing blocks. It is about extraction and dominance for the insider elite clique.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...

“We” are in the oil-selling business. The President of the United States claims Venezuela’s assets as his own.

A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

The Trump Administration Approved a Big Lithium Mine. A Top Official’s Husband Profited.

Karen Budd-Falen, the No. 3 at the Interior Department, didn’t disclose a $3.5 million water-rights contract between her husband and the developers of a Nevada mine, records show.

By NYT Lisa Friedman

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/c...

This is a huge moment, a complete integration of crypto into the state-regulated sphere and the realm of companies likely to be bailed out by taxpayers in times of stress

Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference? Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.

Russia’s well-resourced financial intelligence unit, Rosfinmonitoring, is indeed capable of extensive oversight. But it uses these tools against the Kremlin’s conception of bad actors, writes @mileskellerman.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oMGEg3

Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference? Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.

I have a new op-ed in @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on the EU adding Russia to its AML blacklist (no, it wasn’t already on it!).

It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...

Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.

1/AI chip sale to China strike a tectonic shift in US national security policy? Whats diving it:"It is a system that closely reflects what Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman have referred to as neo-royalism...The winning clique is clear: Nvidia, Trump’s inner circle"
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.

Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.

This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.

Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.

This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

Nvidia can sell H200 AI chips to China, Donald Trump says President says other chipmakers can also resume exports and ‘25% will be paid’ to the US

Last week, the DOJ shut down a major network for smuggling Nvidia H200 chips into China. This week, Trump says those controls no longer apply.

U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.

www.ft.com/content/ac63...

Exclusive | Chinese Rare-Earth Dealers Find Ways to Dodge Beijing’s Export Restrictions Companies are tweaking magnet formulas and embedding them in motors to keep selling to the West.

With every action a reaction. Chinese companies are finding workarounds to sidestep Beijing's export controls.

www.wsj.com/world/china/...