Line chart showing 3 curves for 3 different athletes. The X axis shows repetitions ranging from 1 to 15. The Y axis shows the percentage of the athletes' one repetition maximum.
tl;dr: You can get more accurate 1RM estimates by using a model that learns and accounts for differences between athletes. It also quantifies how certain the estimates are (which matters).
Just posted: "Making 1RM estimates more accurate and honest" where I simulate strength training data and compare a standard one rep max estimation formula with a custom statistical model.
mitchhenderson.dev/posts/2026-0...
Code provided in both #rstats and #python.
most Wes Anderson things I've ever seen
B
Many congratulations to the winners of the 2025 Table Contest. Great code, great presentations, great tables! 🏆
Table showing the probability of qualifying for the NRL finals given the number of wins during the season.
"This table turns 10,000 simulated rugby league seasons into one beautiful, instantly readable answer... It’s a great example of turning complex probability into actionable insight."
My table won the 'Best Sports Table' category in the @posit.co 2025 Table Contest 🏆
Code and data available on my GitHub (linked in the post below along with my submission).
posit.co/blog/2025-ta...
This blog post is going to do numbers 📈
This is great. Super comprehensive!
Thanks, glad you liked it 👍
Yes makes sense. That would be interesting, I'll have a look when i can and see if there's anything there that might conflict.
Thanks @matterofstats.bsky.social. Yeah I was having very similar thoughts. A part of me was a little uneasy knowing that the 8th placed team could have potentially won less games (or had a worse differential) and still qualified. Pros and cons to each I think.
How many wins do NRL teams need to make the finals?
I've FINALLY got around to posting some analytical writing where I use a Monte Carlo approach to simulate 10,000 seasons in #rstats to get practically useful finals probabilities.
mitchhenderson.dev/posts/2025-0...
tl;dr: Probably 13 wins.
Never seen ordinal data presented like this before but I really like it.
I definitely noticed a surge over the last few days of #rstats people posting on other platforms that the community is back together here. It was posts by @travisgerke.bsky.social @emilyriederer.bsky.social and @malcolmbarrett.malco.io on LinkedIn that got me across. Starter packs made it so easy.
