Today's low (and close) undercut the December low.
In the past 75 years, this has led to negative FY returns more than half the time (vs anytime of ~80%).
YTD, SPX's drawdown is 5%; in year's like these, the median max drawdown is 17% and the minimum is 7%.
Source on chart
I've been writing the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm for over 10 years now... here's some of my favorite timeless charts from the earlier years: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
What do those 6 really have to say? We all wake up and go to sleep with America's lunacy.
If the US wants to release said reserves, the other 6 will comply. In the case of Europe, another alternative is risking more favors for Russia like the temporary lifting of bans last week to ease oil prices..
I'm not. I know, quite unusual for social media. Happy to see your posts on here every day!
Europe is not united. They are not in a position to ask anything. Is what it is.
What do we call tweets on Bluesky? Was there a meeting about this? Being told my idea is not workable.
I've successfully managed to find most of the old "fintwit" crowd on here. Really is no reason to even consider X at this point.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Also worth noting how Elon's site seems completely bot/AI infested. The replies are usually fully of this "if not x, then y" LLM talk. It's the dead internet theory in full swing.
Barely see that on Bluesky or Reddit. I guess no financial incentive on Bluesky and on Reddit the LLMs get downvoted.
Fed governor Stephen Miran suggests that if he had to submit a rate projection for 2026 on current data, he would pencil in 100 bps in cuts this year, instead of the 150 bps he submitted at the December forecast round. www.thepeg.co/p/transcript...
I share the frustration about everyone bothsidesing everything and the role this has played in the country being where it is today. But Nick Timiraos is not one of the ones who does this.
You are not wrong and I think it's in part due to those with the strongest believes to have left X first and feel like they need to police the narrative here.
That being said, as a BlueSky reader (not poster), my experience here is a lot better than on X, especially for the "fintwit" niche.
Breadth is talked about way too often for something that holds practically no predictive value.
So a coin toss, why is that special?
When people say “but both sides need to tone it down” they’re telling you who they are. Believe them.
Use it for coding a lot. It's great at that, but I fail to see how it will end entire SAAS offerings. I'd expect these SAAS firms to ship their products with better margins, and that will probably compensate any potential loss of customers?
And it being a big paycheck for the Trump family. Eric Trump's X timeline is testimony of that.
This was the low. SPY made successive ATHs, climbing 7% in the next 2 months.
SPY is now back to its 20-wma (677). Deeper correction awaits if it fails (arrows)
Crazy story: A bank analyst published a report showing Kalshi users lose money even faster than sports gamblers, so Kalshi first tried to pressure the data provider to change their data and then accused them and the analyst of conspiring to extort them when that doesn’t work.
Must be a moment in the future where people look back on this and wonder how things were allowed to get this unserious (again).
10 Weekend Reads:
-23 Ways You’re Already Living in the Chinese Century
-The Cult of Costco
-Can Department Stores Ever Be Fun Again?
-By All Measures
-How Hackers Are Fighting Back Against ICE
-Defining Moments in TV History
-The Search for Alien Artifacts
ritholtz.com/2026/01/10-w...
Same price as last week even after the drop. Don't really see what all the fuss is about.
Glad that's settled then. Regardless if you think Kalshi odds have any merit, resorting to ad hominem attacks is childish. Can't defend your point of view like an adult.
How is it structurally flawed in an obvious way? If that's the case, go and become a millionaire. Flaws can be arbed on Kalshi.
I think, because there is money on the line, those that engage with Kalshi will reflect whatever information they can get their hands on it in the odds. Kalshi is not a survey.
A betting website is fascist?
Don't you think polling information is reflected in the Kalshi odds? The beautiful thing about Kalshi, if you truly feel the crowd has got it wrong, you can arb it all away and make good money. That in itself keeps the Kalshi odds fair and unbiased,assuming necessarily information is known to public
Do you have a better way of tapping into the wisdom of the crowd right at this point in time? Kalshi is a fair approximation as the fact there is money on the line makes it more honest and unbiased. The only real argument for not using it would be very illiquid markets with low participation.
I'd say Trump trying to make the industry his own has scared a lot of people away.
An asset that derives its value from faith has to be apolitical.
I really look forward to presenting at CQF Institute’s Portfolio Management in Quant Finance conference.
Read more about it here: substack.com/@antonvorobe...
#quant #quantsky #finance #markets #python #investment #investing #portfoliomanagement
It will hit that by end of week at this rate
