The program features 26 exciting papers by researchers from the United States, Europe, and South America. You will not want to miss this opportunity to learn about the latest research and broaden your professional network. Sign up now and join us in Chicago!
This longstanding conference meets April 20-21 at the Illini Center in Chicago. Find the program, venue and hotel information, and conference registration here: buff.ly/3Qx6Qg3
Interested in research on agricultural commodity markets/trading/pricing? We are just 9 weeks away from the latest iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
My latest for @farmdocdaily: US grain storage capacity growth has stopped after decades of storage growth matching crop production growth. Capacity utilization is up, especially for on-farm storage, with implications for supply chains and future investments. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/02/us-g...
The next question is why. J.R.'s future work may assess legal, tax, and farm payment-based motives for adopting particular legal business structures.
The data allows J.R. to assess the changing prevalence of legal entity use at the farm level. He finds Limited Liability Companies or LLCs, have grown substantially in the past 15-20 years.
J.R. found a clever way to see how entity use is changing over time in public records on USDA Farm Service Agency payments. While the method for identifying entity types is imperfect (it's based on the named recipient which may contain the terms "LLC", "Inc", etc.) it is consistent over time.
Next is M.S. student J.R. Glenn, who looks at the use of legal entities in US production agriculture. Numbers of farms and farmers can be found in data from USDA NASS and the Census of Agriculture, but we know little about legal entities like partnerships, LLCs, C- and S- corps.
Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily: farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/the-...
We find China has made limited progress toward soybean self-sufficiency. Official Chinese statistics have the soymeal inclusion rate declining post-policy, but USDA/third-parties data show declines not as sharp or as smooth as official figures. China’s overall soybean import demand remains high.
Jilang shows roughly one-sixth of animal feed in China is soybean meal, mostly derived from imported soybeans. China hasn't always been dependent on soybean imports, and its agricultural policy seeks self-sufficiency. It's technically feasible but potentially costly: www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
Next is Ph.D. student Jilang Qing who assessed changes in China's soybean meal use in feed rations and what it says about efforts within China to reduce demand for soybean imports from Brazil and the US. (There was lots of interest in soybeans, veg oils, and related markets this year!)
Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets and prices for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily: farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/can-...
She finds the relatively stable relationship among vegetable oils prices has periodically broken down in the period since 2020, particularly around major biofuels policy shifts both in the US and in SE Asia.
Next up is MS student Yu-Chi who's been working with me on how soybean markets have adapted to growing demand for vegetable oils as a biofuels feedstock. She looks at pricing relationships among veg oils, specifically palm and soybean, globally the two largest.
Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets and prices for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily: farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/vola...
He shows the basic economics of crops like CoverCress and winter canola look promising, but existing acreage is a rounding error relative to soybeans and there are many tough-to-measure obstacles to widespread adoption.
Demand for biofuels feedstocks, especially fats and vegetable oils, has surged in the US. Jacob examines an intriguing form of supply response: increasing per-acre veg oil production by growing two oilseed crops each year.
First up is MS student Jacob Lionberger on potential for winter oilseed production in the Corn Belt. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/wint...
Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets and prices for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily
Shared my (uncontroversial?) take that US farmers would not benefit from tariffs on Canadian fertilizer. I had fewer thoughts when interviewed on the recently announced ad hoc farm payments.
www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-pol...
We delved into stimulating discussions on 24/7 trading, the rise of retail traders, and the critical role of futures markets for physical commodities. While our team didn't win (they finished 78th out of 615) they gleaned valuable insight on what it takes to win (and not lose) in commodity markets.
This semester, I had the pleasure of advising a student team from the Department of Ag and Consumer Economics in the CME University Trading Challenge: www.cmegroup.com/events/unive.... Yesterday, we engaged with CME staff and industry experts during the CME Group Day of Market Education in Chicago.
Whether you think farmers should be active users of futures and options-based marketing strategies or not, Joe and Mackenzie's market commentary is always worth a watch/listen.
Very cool to see our farmdoc Daily article on farmers' use of futures markets (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/12/risk...) cited by Joe Vaclavik this morning: youtu.be/WY0B3UD9Zhk?.... Data show the majority of grain farms, even large ones, don't have a brokerage account and aren't using futures.
After a successful 2025 edition, the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis will be back in Chicago, April 20-21, 2026. I'm co-organizing. The deadline to submit presentation proposals is Nov 21: farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/subm... Submit papers now and join us in April!
Last week I shared a grain market outlook with FBFM staff and discussed how we are using FBFM data to answer important research questions on commodity marketing. We've already published some of that work (e.g. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...) with more to come.
The farmdoc team at University of Illinois is fortunate to have great partners like FBFM who keep our analysis grounded in real-world data on farm finances and the agricultural economy.
I had the pleasure of speaking to an extraordinary group of state and provincial legislators at the International Legislators Forum in Deadwood, SD: agree.org/2025-interna... I talked about ongoing tariff shock and impacts on agricultural commodity trade. Hard to understate how big a change this is.
My latest for Farmdoc Daily: Are there really 97.3 million corn acres in the US this year? Jason Franken and I use acreage enrolled in Farm Service Agency farm programs to say yes. If anything, the 97.3 million acre guess released last week by USDA is a conservative one.
