The NWS Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlooks will be changing slightly next week.
Meteorologists Evan Bentley and Liz Leitman, our experts at SPC, provide an update about the new conditional intensity outlook.
Quick update as I’ll be doing some major upgrades to my website tonight — the multi-model ensemble for Erin remains closer to Bermuda than the East coast (right), but this obscures a major split between the east leaning GEFS & west leaning EPS (left):
We are still evaluating how the new suite of AI models may compare (e.g., AIFS, Google-DeepMind, Graphcast). Thus far, it looks like the same limitations that apply the ordinary NWP modeling also applies to the new suite of AI modeling.
EMC's EVS webpage which had a bunch of comprehensive stats. Check it out here: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2grid/hgt/
Now for (2) sharing deterministic model output at long lead times:
Forecast skill for individual features meso-to-synoptic scale in size (i.e., #TC) lose predictability fast >5-7 day period.
The Environmental Modeling Center has detailed stats that show this rapid skill drop off in all models. 📉
Today marks the start of Hurricane Season; as I’ve said for most of my career, it only takes one storm to have a bad season. People are on edge from last season, so our job is to provide down-to-earth weather forecasting without the hype. Don’t post 10+ day-out forecasts….
Yup. It’s always pure entertainment
Someone commented on my post this morning on FB, saying the 5G phone service was causing Flash Flooding. 🤣🤣🤣🤦♂️
Here we go! A+ stunning weather ahead across North Carolina! #ncwx
Never seen before perspective of a tornado in Arnett, OK by our research drone on May 18th. Watch the full video here on YouTube: youtu.be/NGD2e741Riw
Numerous studies have shown that radiosondes are a critical input to the computer models that help us forecast the weather accurately on an ongoing basis.
Plus, they provide forecasters quality insight in and immediately ahead of high-impact events like severe storms and hurricanes.
What Nate said.
Ridiculous
Contact your representatives don’t let up they need to hear you.
Bad, bad news: More data is being lost. This is not a good sign heading into Hurricane Season. Weather service offices are severely understaffed and underfunded. Weather data will continue to be degraded across the United States. This is unacceptable. We should be funding more…
Didn’t have republican support hoping this bill along with the other things start the conversation.
@ross.house.gov
This also includes getting a radar to Charlotte, which folks have fought for years. This is desperately needed.
More progress to protect and further fund and support NWS/ NOAA but I thank @RepTimMooreNC @RepPatHarrigan and @RepDeborahRoss for understanding how important critical weather infrastructure and information is, and how it should be nonpartisan with widespread support. #ncwx
Well, look at this: When you push, it happens. Three North Carolina house reps have introduced a bill to fund/improve and modernize the NWS. I pushed for this in DC. @RepDeborahRoss said she would try to work with NC representatives on finding a bill. I hope this bill advances.
The rest of the world will band together, and the US will be on its own. Watch it.
I did it; I made a YouTube channel, give it a follow, and check out my first video covering the Severe Weather Threat today. #ncwx youtu.be/jQZFubfjwCc?...
There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening across NC. It is a rather complicated setup with a high bust potential; read more of my thoughts about the potential threat here. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-... #ncwx
The spring pattern is very elaborate this year and it’s leading to large swings and temperature and precipitation mostly la Niña related
2 additional radiosonde sites are temporarily suspending launches, while 6 others are reducing to one launch a day. 14 out of 83 sites now have partial or no launches.
The more radiosondes are reduced or suspended, the more noticeable the forecast skill reduction becomes.
Up-to-date NWS upper air network map
It's absolutely insane. More National Weather Service offices are suspending or limiting weather balloon launching due to staffing cuts. This could impact weather modeling, which we don’t need. In the weather world, we need more data, not less.
Last week, some pictures came to me from Western North Carolina. Helene debris still contains a lot of lost memories.
Social media was able to bring a lot of them back to their owners. Special thanks to Jack Kendrick and @ethangclark02.bsky.social for making it happen.
youtu.be/_JPZU3NZe-c?...
tornado ongoing in Mississippi
A very unfortunate tornado outbreak is currently ongoing in Dixie. A very pronounced ZDR arch, velocity, and debris ball are evident on reflectivity. Very likely a violent tornado ongoing. #wxsky
