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02.03.2026 09:49
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Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so: ecfr.eu/article/trum...
How did the Chagos islands become a totem of Britain's post-imperial decline?
An essay for this Weekend's FT on whether there was an alternative to the deal that Farage denounces as a "surrender" www.ft.com/content/a6d0...
How to understand war with Iran? We must get away from propaganda. Facts suggest two interpretive frameworks: a foreign war as a mechanism to destroy democracy at home; and a foreign war as an element of personal corruption by the president of the United States.
snyder.substack.com/p/why-attack...
That is the story of our exclusive recent @ecfr.eu poll of 16,393 Europeans. See @pawelzerka.bsky.social's and @celiabelin.bsky.social's paper for the full details:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Which leaves the Trumpists. They amount to just 5% of Europeans, but an important 5% - as this is the Europe genuinely open to the US president. They are anti-EU & pro-US. They think Trump is doing a great job. You may even find the shape of their island vaguely familiar.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
The craggiest island is that of the Nationalists, 12% of the European population. They are dubious about both the EU and the US, but back increased defence spending. You'll find plenty of them in France and Poland, and among parts (but not all) of the radical right.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
The Renegades (15%) are the anti-Atlanticists. They are really pessimistic about the future. They don't like the US or the EU. They don't like defence investment. They are the most favourable to Russia of the six islands. Their island is a bay of angry pirates.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Then you have the Atlanticists, 12% of Europeans. The Atlanticists are old-school. They still see the US as an ally, are positive about today's EU - and generally optimistic about things. You find them especially in Poland, Estonia and the UK.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
21% of Europeans are Euro-doves. They really don't like Trump and don't trust today's US. They are pro-EU. But they are not sold on a European military-ramp up - an island with an olive tree on it. Lots of Euro-doves in southern Europe and among centre-left voters.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
28% of Europeans are Euro-hawks. They no longer see the US as an ally (or they never did), back increased defence spending, and are upbeat about the EU. There are lots of them in Denmark, Portugal and Germany. They are highly alarmed by the geopolitical situation.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Europe 2026. Donald Trump has been in power for a year. The continent is under threat. Its people have split into a (proverbial) archipelago of six main islands: Euro-hawks, Euro-doves, Atlanticists, Renegades, Nationalists, Trumpists. Which island do you belong to?
ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfr.eu
🎧 New week, new episode!
@markhleonard.bsky.social welcomes Mark Malloch-Brown to talk about the future of the Bretton Woods institutions. Is Mark Carney right that there is a rupture in the old order? Are the World Bank and IMF problematic and outdated?
Our newest episode: https://bit.ly/46exDGr
🎧 Is Mark Carney right that there is a rupture in the old order? How did the Bretton Woods institutions underpin the old order? Listen to what @markhleonard.bsky.social and Mark Malloch-Brown think about this.
👉 Link to the latest episode: https://bit.ly/46exDGr
Delighted to announce the launch of the New Politics Project at @ecfr.eu.
Led by me in Berlin and Piotr Buras in Warsaw, it will 1) research how volatility, fragmentation & populism are reshaping European foreign policies, 2) build a resilient agenda for a stronger, autonomous Europe.
ecfr.eu/npp
Important new @worldresources.bsky.social research shows that agricultural expansion isn’t only leading to forest loss - it’s leading to loss of grasslands, savannas, & wetlands too.
From 2005-20, the 🌎 lost 95 Mha of non-forest natural ecosystems to annual crops, and another 95 Mha to pasture. 1/
magnificent, luminous, joyful mozart from the OAE and Robin Ticciati this evening . . . bliss
wasn't it magnificent
Jesse Jackson reading "Green Eggs and Ham" is so wonderful. RIP
Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help
snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...
"I think we need a stronger UN, not a weaker UN. The UN is only as strong as its member states allow it to be."
David Miliband discusses today’s global conflicts, Donald Trump’s plans for Gaza, and Keir Starmer’s problems. Read more: bloom.bg/4tqDpyK
📷️: Jose Sarmento Matos/Bloomberg
The global plastics treaty can be saved — here’s how to break the deadlock
"the UN's largest contributor, the US, refused to contribute to its regular and peacekeeping budgets... Several other members are in arrears or are simply refusing to pay." www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Best, Most Original Idea Man’s Ever Had Returns 114,000 Google Search Results theonion.com/best-most-or...
I think this is the most important article I've written for a while: a trip to Sudan to report on the UN's refugee agency.
Battered by Trump's cuts and western retreat, can humanitarianism survive?
as.ft.com/r/f137508d-d...
In his Prospect diary, David Miliband, CEO of @uk.rescue.org, writes from Mogadishu on the damage done by US aid cuts estimated to be responsible for one million deaths globally.
This should be a great evening. Oxford, Thursday.
See you there.
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/food-syste...
South Kordofan is on the brink.
Civilians face escalating violence, mass displacement and a collapse of basic services.
Dilling and Kadugli are cut off, markets empty, health care exhausted.
Attacks on civilians must stop – and safe, sustained humanitarian access is urgent.
