That's not a bad rank at all for someone using only 3 out of 6 chips!
03.06.2025 23:44
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That's not a bad rank at all for someone using only 3 out of 6 chips!
But what if we look instead of average ownership of just the *10* most popular players? Now E64 and Content Creators league are *much* more concentrated than AE64 👀
Same table, but sorted
I was talking about ownership of players. This is the updated table including E64: average ownership rate of the 30 most popular players is almost identical between AE64 and E64 (44.27% versus 44.37%)
I'd be curious to see how other gameweeks look like, but would need to scrape data from official website for that.
But comparison is not apples to apples, because for the large leagues you are comparing the selected group of highly performing managers
Average ownership of top 30 most owned players (by top 50 ranked managers) in GW38 for selected leagues, from @fplgameweek.com. Turns out that analytics leagues (AE64, AEQ64, BW, FPLOptimized) had slightly more concentrated ownership than others
Based on what I'm seeing from captaincy polls, going Isak (c) over Salah (c) may be the best way to widen your outcome distribution. Not for the faint of heart, though...
I'd be curious to see a simulation that quantifies the rank gain from pursuing a defensive double or triple up versus going for a 10% owned versus a 50% owned asset
#SerieAFantasy GW23: 61 all out, OR 109-->115. Passing on Retegui+Zaccagni in previous GW proving to be very costly
#SerieAFantasy updated fixture ticker: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Does not reflect possible doubles yet (FIO-INT in 24, BOL-MIL in 26). Keep an eye on announcements later today
If Ful-Tot is in 25, 33 would have only two teams doubling, NEW and CRY (unless some of the GW34 blanks slot into it). Seems manageable.
TC24 on Salah and then AM25 (after knowing whether DGW25 is on) is also an option.
It would be close, but keep in mind that DGW25 implies that Tottenham advances to CC final, so no LIV blank in 29, no LIV double in 33. You lose a big chunk of EV relative to TC24 on Salah.
Optimal AM strategy very team dependent:
TC still available, already 3 Liv in squad: TC24 on Salah, AM in 31 or 35/36
TC still available, only 2 Liv in squad (or 3 LIV and lots of FTs) : maybe AM24 if provisional announcement of DGW25
TC played already: AM24 defo an option
Sharp-eyed managers will have noticed that there is some discrepancy between my EV for GW24 and Review's EV (mine is a bit lower on average). In this case, I would trust Review's numbers (based on betting odds, I think). But model is OK for predicting likelihood of table bonus in future GWs
GW24 is finally upon us, and managers can activate their Assistant Manager Chip. Check here my updated AM Chip Planning Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
#SerieAFantasy GW22: 59 all out, OR 86 --> 100. 12 week green streak over, we go again in 23
GW23: 54 all out, 1.6M -->1.8M. When is it gonna end, Robbie?
Keep in mind that there is a decent chance that GW24 or GW25 (or both!) will be doubles (make-up games for Fiorentina-Inter and Bologna-Milan). Inter almost surely through as top-8 in CL, so both midweeks free. Milan with a ~70% chance of making top 8.
#SerieAFantasy updated fixture ticker: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Updated Assistant Manager Chip Planning spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Some interesting moves in GW26: Moyes (vs MUN) now only 9% probability of table bonus, but Howe (vs NFO) up to 19% prob of bonus, EV with bonus 11.99 (!)
#SerieAFantasy GW21: 78 all out, OR 93-->86. Still slowly climbing.
GW22: 48 all out, OR, 1.64M --> 1.58M. New season objective: top 400K, roughly the average of my last 5 casual seasons before becoming an engaged manager 😔
GW21: 61 all out, 1.5M --> 1.6M. This season is humbling.
#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
#SerieAFantasy: Updated fixture ticker ahead of DGW20: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
GW20: 64(-4)=60 all out. OR 1.4M -->1.5M. Still meandering aimlessly in the mid 1M ranks. Would be nice to get some players that actually do points. We go again in 21.
#SerieAFantasy GW19: 65(-5)=60, OR 173-->132. Not the best of weeks, but enough people were not paying attention to the schedule to get a decent green. We move