The most important outcome of the Paris meeting is the announcement that the European Commission will soon provide a plan on how to redirect unused COVID recovery funds for strengthening European defence capabilities.
Yes, but we can do nothing about it, and by treating this seriously and making all that fuss we are only aggravating the situation.
As the interest in Greenland is rising, take a look๐
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
2/I think heโs really happy about the media stir he/Musk caused. They want exactly this: being perceived as irrational ruthless players as this might give them better position to achieve some of their goals (in a nonviolent;) way. All the criticism & uproar only serve these goals
1/As the โlooming US invasion of Greenland etc.โ is widely discussed in the media, itโs worth to read MccMaster.
We need to get used to a different communication style of the incoming president Trump ๐
For part 1 of a 2-part special BerlinsideOut episode, @bctallis.bsky.social & Aaron G. Burnett welcome @jgotkowska.bsky.social, Jakub Jaraczewski & Kai-Olaf Lang to get into the particularly important, but historically difficult & tense ๐ฉ๐ช-๐ต๐ฑ relationship. berlinsideout.podigee.io/13-germany-a...
Agree w @jgotkowska.bsky.social 'As long as it takes' is not an objective. Clear aim should be to ensure Ukraine recovers all its territory, to 1991 borders; and the West, especially Europe, needs to provide the resources to achieve that. Less than that, & Putin/Russia will be back for more.
12. It is not about land. Crimea and Donbas are not enough for Russia. From ๐ท๐บperspective this war is a zero-sum game. Ukraine understands that. The West only partly. We need a change of mindset and we need to listen to what Moscow clearly says.
11. Ukraine and the West can prevail but Western leaders need to admit the false premises of current strategy & understand the stake of this war. Russia and China aim to undermine regional security alliances led by ๐บ๐ธ and change the international order to their favour.
10. First, by giving ๐บ๐ฆ assurances of long term military deliveries. Second, by inviting Ukraine to NATO & showing ๐ท๐บ that the game is over for its neoimperial ambitions. Russia can loose this war & we are in a position to make it happen in coming years without feared escalation.
9. Does Ukraine has chances to win? Yes, but the West needs to change its strategy & mindset. Not only we need to meet the short term needs of ๐บ๐ฆdefence, equip ๐บ๐ฆ with additional weapons for the offensives in the coming year but also show ๐ท๐บ that we are there for the long run.
8. Building up European capabilities takes time, and not all of European allies heard the wake-up call, share the analysis of Russian goals and feel the same urgency. European arms industry due to the lack of orders is in general only slowly catching up with reality.
7. 2๏ธโฃ Letโs think about worst case scenarios. With a possible turmoil around ๐บ๐ธpresidential elections, ๐ท๐บmight also test Western resolve by militarily pressing the eastern flank countries. It would bet on ๐บ๐ธwilling to go for a deal, with the European allies being unprepared.
6. What scenarios are looming? 1๏ธโฃ If ๐บ๐ธ support will be delayed or decreased, it might be challenging for ๐บ๐ฆ to keep the current frontline already in the coming months. Are we prepared in Europe to replace the ๐บ๐ธ military deliveries to ๐บ๐ฆof e.g. ammunition?
5. Even if ๐ท๐บhas troubles in maintaining the war effort, it has also clear political goals&will to scarify a lot to achieve what it wants. Would ๐ท๐บwant to negotiate now? I doubt. If so, then on its own terms claiming full subordination of๐บ๐ฆ. Would that be acceptable for๐บ๐ฆ & us?
4. But ๐ท๐บ doesnโt want a piece of ๐บ๐ฆ, ๐ท๐บ wants control over whole ๐บ๐ฆ, and ๐ท๐บstrategic goals far beyond that. Russia aims to undermine the security&sovereignty of the eastern flank & Europe in general. ๐ท๐บ sees our weakness and bets on prolonging the war to wear ๐บ๐ฆ & the West off.
3. We see problems in๐บ๐ธ mounting with the next support package for๐บ๐ฆ. There is an increasing weariness in Western Europe to support๐บ๐ฆ and unpreparedness to wage a long conflict. And there is willingness to delude oneself that after all we might find a deal & modus vivendi with๐ท๐บ.
2. Yes, it united the West & helped ๐บ๐ฆ to survive and fight back. But it was devised on premises that are increasingly problematic/false: 1)the perseverance of the West in helping ๐บ๐ฆ 2)the belief that ๐ท๐บwill finally understand it cannot win the war and will admit it was a mistake.
1. After recent discussions in Vilnius&Berlin I think one needs to clearly say that Western strategy devised by๐บ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช, guided by fear of escalation and betting on โsupporting Ukraine as long as it takesโ =creating best conditions for negotiation= may turn out to be a failure.
sehr hรถrenswerte Doppelfolge @ostausschuss.bsky.social mit @kassymbekova.bsky.social zu Zentralasien (und damit einem Blind Spot hier in D) mit zum letzten Mal Gabriele Woidelko. Weiter dabei @jcbehrends.bsky.social @efdavies.bsky.social @gresselgustav.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/o...
Thanks to @cnas.bsky.social for making @jgotkowska.bsky.social @lianafix.bsky.social and me come together again on the #BrusselsSproutsPodcast to discuss the State of European Aid to Ukraine - do listen in here: brusselssprouts.podbean.com/e/the-state-...
My latest piece for โStrategic Europeโ @Carnegie Europe on how in the midst of several wars Europe/the EU cannot afford a wait-and-see attitude towards US position on Ukraine aid t.co/NbvcTQjsRI
Das kuriose daran ist, dass - wegen der jahrelangen Vernachlรคssigung & wegen des Unwillens der Bundesregierung den regulรคren BMVg-Haushalt zu steigern - das politische Ziel 2% BIP mit dem Sondervermรถgen zu erfรผllen die Modernisierung der Bundeswehr gefรคhrdet. ๐
Wenn ich mir @Sicherheitspod รผber den Verteidigungshaushalt anhรถre, mache ich mir noch mehr Sorgen ob Europa Ihren Teil an Verpflichtungen in der NATO erfรผllt.
podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast/s...
๐ข Russia's invasion of Ukraine reaffirmed #Poland's commitment to its security policy and prompted more investment in defence. The country has now become an important player on NATO's eastern flank. Joanna Maria Stolarek interviews @jgotkowska.bsky.social โก๏ธ pl.boell.org/en/2023/09/2...
Personally, I would never think that AfD might be second biggest party in most populous West German federal states. Germany is a prosperous, wealthy nation.
Itโs hard for me to understand.
