Nitou - Cyberotter Extraordinaire

Having pushed up through resistance at 6675, $SPX is currently hovering under 6700, with the next major resistance up at 6720. Still some chance we can fall back to 6650, but bullish positioning is coming in strong.

$SPY #ES_F

Hypothetical question: If this war persists and oil prices continue to rise. How long is the price of oil likely to remain elevated?
In other words, will/can other OPEC countries ramp up production to increase supply and lower price?

Targeting and killing of noncombatants, like school girls, is in fact a war crime

Lastly for shits 'n giggles I sold a 6740/6730 put credit spread (green) and I was able to get a 6740/6750 call credit spread (red) on the second to last candle to make another cute little iron butterfly that ended up closing at max profit. THX @gammastrike.bsky.social

In between work meetings I was able to first sell a 6770/6760 put credit spread (green), and then when spot tested gamma flip (red) here on @gammastrike.bsky.social RTD page and I saw put premiums move up I sold the 6770/6780 call credit spread to make a cute iron butterfly.

My plan was to leg into some put credit spreads to effectively create a long put butterfly or condor. Well, Tuesday we dropped more than I had expected and I was fortunate enough to create a 25 wide 6775-6675 put condor for this Friday.

Did some @gammastrike.bsky.social things today. It was a wild one for sure.
The main position I'd set up for today was something I legged into Monday Tuesday. With the conflict in Iran I first purchased some 6800/6775 put debit spreads for this Friday on Monday.

DId you see the drop coming? We did. A bounce off the gamma flip followed by put premiums rising even in the 15 minute bucket were a clear sign we were about to see at least SOME downside.

Watch our real time data dashboard live at www.youtube.com/@Pi-Fi

$SPX $SPY #ES_F

As I’m certain Iran will be discussed prior to the Q&A I’d like to slip this in. Oil over $100 was one of the risks identified to Trump associated with attacking Iran. Given how the military operation has gone how likely is that? What market impacts would we see at $100/barrel?

- PPI=hot
- OpenAI doing OpenAI things (spending more $ than they make)

- IV/HV both moved up, VRP continues to pinch
- 10D Skew ticked up, but 30D Skew continued down...

Morning cappuccino - ☑️
Checking market data with @gammastrike.bsky.social - ☑️

Franken Spreads complete

- sold 3x 6900/6910 BCS for 6.05
- changed my BPS exit to a 3x OCO: stop at 4.00, limit sell to open BCS 6905/6915 for 6.05

Remember that support I pointed out at 6865?
Well I sold some bull put spreads for 6.05 premium. They're currently up about 50%, and yes there's a stop in place. Here's hoping for a 6900 close.

thx @gammastrike.bsky.social

@gammastrike.bsky.social stuffs

Current plan is to look for SPX to find support below 6900, preferably below 6885 (roughly the lower IM) and look for long entries back to ~6900.

Looking at the live data and overall positioning on SPX I'm currently speculating that the low of the day is in, but that doesn't mean there can't still be wide range with a bearish bias. Chop around 6900 +/- 20 (SPX dropped from 6900 to 6890 as I'm typing)

- Skew turned down after yesterday
- VRP also pinched (IV down:HV up)
- This gave me a slightly bearish bias for today (thx @gammastrike.bsky.social )
- I will be honest I did not expect a drop to 6860, thus I had to have a think

Happy post-NVDA earnings day with @gammastrike.bsky.social
- the data was supporting my thesis of a drop to possibly 6900 after open
- I opened a long put condor and a deep in the money bear call spread
- My order for a bull put spread filled successfully legging me into an iron condor

a man in a suit and tie is making a funny face and saying probe was this big . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is making a funny face and saying probe was this big .

Oh, and if you need a tie breaker:

How about Iran and when/if Trump attacks? This is more stupid bet material, but still. Will Trump:
a. Attack before market open Monday
b. Attack before Thursday's talks in Geneva
c. Not at all, big bluff, art of the deal
d. something else...

Kinda difficult to come up with a meaningful question that isn’t related to the SCOTUS ruling and subsequent 15% global tariffs.

One of the things I like most about @gammastrike.bsky.social is on days like this where price action is boring and choppy, it really does allow me to see why and that I should be cautious. That being said, I did leg into a few iron butterflies.

As we were dropping into the end of the day I sold a 6850/6870 bear call spread to give me some more downside exposure. SPX found support at 6855 so I set a stop in case of a reversal with triggered for a modest gain. SPX then pumped back into my max profit zone, only to drop into close.