The Israeli Forum for Intelligence Studies (IFIS)

Learning from mistakes: the impact of the October 7 surprise attack on the youngest generation of IDF intelligence analysts This article explores the individual-level effects of an intelligence failure; in particular, on entry-level intelligence analysts. It draws on interviews with graduates of the first class of the I...

Learning from mistakes: the impact of the October 7 surprise attack on the youngest generation of IDF intelligence analysts

Ofek Riemer

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Introduction: rethinking strategic warning and intelligence failure in an era of global transformation This special issue of Intelligence and National Security examines the persistence of strategic surprise and the limitations of existing early warning frameworks in an era of geopolitical volatility...

Introduction: rethinking strategic warning and intelligence failure in an era of global transformation

Shay Hershkovitz & Ofek Riemer

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Intelligence and National Security Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation. Volume 40, Issue 5 of Intelligence and National Security

Our latest edition, Vol 40, No. 5 is out now! This edition is a Special Issue on Strategic Surprise and Early Warning.

www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/c...

📣 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT

Proudly sharing that Meir Ben-Shabbat will be speaking at the Annual Israeli Conference on Intelligence Studies 2025

Registration Opens Sep. 30: www.ifis.co.il

📣 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT

Proudly sharing that Dr. Eyal Hulata will be speaking at the Annual Israeli Conference on Intelligence Studies 2025

Regitration Opens Sep. 30: ifis.co.il

New addition

Journal article: Introduction: rethinking strategic warning and intelligence failure in an era of global transformation by Shay Hershkovitz, Ofek Riemer (published 22-08-2025)

https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2025.2546249

Learning from mistakes: the impact of the October 7 surprise attack on the youngest generation of IDF intelligence analysts This article explores the individual-level effects of an intelligence failure; in particular, on entry-level intelligence analysts. It draws on interviews with graduates of the first class of the I...

An important article on the effects of cataclysmic failure on the bedrock of your organisation: your entry-level folk in the trenches.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Israel’s Operation Wrath of God: do targeted assassinations work? In Operation Wrath of God, Aviva Guttmann examines the secret campaign to take out Palestinian terrorists in revenge for the Munich Olympics massacre of 1972

Many thanks Roger Boyes of The Times for this terrific review of my new book, Operation Wrath of God: www.thetimes.com/culture/book...

Congrats Aviva!

Hurray, I have been elected as Fellow of the Royal Historical Society (RHS) in recognition of my contribution to historical scholarship. I am now officially FRHistS!

The vanishing watchman: the rise and decline of early warning This article investigates the rise and decline of early warning as a priority task for intelligence agencies. The article shows that shifts in the prioritization of early warning are shaped by a co...

🚨NEW in @intnatsecjournal.bsky.social (ed.
@smarrin.bsky.social)

"The vanishing watchman: the rise and decline of early warning" by Ehud Eiran, Ofer Guterman, & David Simantov

The article is part of a special issue on strategic warning & intel failure

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Learning from mistakes: the impact of the October 7 surprise attack on the youngest generation of IDF intelligence analysts This article explores the individual-level effects of an intelligence failure; in particular, on entry-level intelligence analysts. It draws on interviews with graduates of the first class of the I...

🚨NEW in @intnatsecjournal.bsky.social (ed. @smarrin.bsky.social)

"Learning from mistakes: the impact of the Oct 7 surprise attack on the youngest generation of IDF intelligence analysts" by Ofek Riemer

➡️part of a special issue on strat warning & intel failure

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Exploring the meaning and challenges of early warning A consistent challenge in the study and practice of warning is that of definitions. This article focuses on the meaning of early warning, arguing that it should be explicitly separated from the ter...

🚨NEW in @intnatsecjournal.bsky.social (ed. @smarrin.bsky.social)

"Exploring the meaning and challenges of early warning" by Jonathan P. Proctor

The article is part of a special issue on strategic warning & intel failure edited by Shay Hershkovitz & Ofek Riemer

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

New addition

Journal article: Learning from mistakes: the impact of the October 7 surprise attack on the youngest generation of IDF intelligence analysts by Ofek Riemer (published 20-07-2025)

https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2025.2526931

Surprise, Surprise: Misperception, Hubris, and Deception in Today’s Strategic Environment - Modern War Institute In recent years, strategic surprises are everywhere. Russia and the United States were surprised by Ukrainian resilience in 2022, and Israel was surprised by the Hamas attacks in October 2023. Just re...

👁️READ this commentary by Dr. Itai Shapira, a member of our forum: mwi.westpoint.edu/surprise-sur...

🎧האזינו לפודקאסט עם פרופ' אורי בר יוסף, חבר נכבד בפורום שלנו, על ההפתעה האסטרטגית של איראן: open.spotify.com/episode/5ecz...

Populists vs. Spies in Israel and Beyond - War on the Rocks Over a year and a half after the Oct. 7 attacks, the Israeli government is embroiled in an unprecedented institutional clash with the nation’s internal

From Tel Aviv to Caracas to Ankara, one pattern holds: Populist leaders eventually target the spies. warontherocks.com/20...

Populists vs. Spies in Israel and Beyond - War on the Rocks Over a year and a half after the Oct. 7 attacks, the Israeli government is embroiled in an unprecedented institutional clash with the nation’s internal

Why would a country sabotage its own security agencies in wartime? Israel's leadership crisis reveals a troubling global pattern. warontherocks.com/20...

Populists vs. Spies in Israel and Beyond - War on the Rocks Over a year and a half after the Oct. 7 attacks, the Israeli government is embroiled in an unprecedented institutional clash with the nation’s internal

Why would a country sabotage its own security agencies in wartime? Israel's leadership crisis reveals a troubling global pattern. warontherocks.com/20...

IFIS Webinar // Intelligence-Policy Crisis: Elected Officials & Civil Servants in Israel YouTube video by The Israeli Forum for Intelligence Studies

For a recording of our previous webinar on the relationship b/w elected officials & civil servants, and lessons for the intelligence: www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6uY...

📣Next week on our special webinar series:

Grzegorz Małecki, former director of Polish foreign intelligence agency (AW), and Prof. David Gioe (KCL), will discuss #intelligence-policy relations under populist governments in Poland & the United States

Register here: ifis.co.il

📣 Issuing today the call for papers & award nominations for the Israeli Intelligence Studies Conference 2025!

🗓️ October 28-29, 2025
🌎 @hebrewuniversity.bsky.social, Jerusalem

📩 Submission deadline: July 31, 2025

Proposals for the Annual Israeli Conference in Intelligence Studies, Jerusalem, 28-29 October 2025

Submission form for paper proposals: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

DM for further inquiries.

📣 Issuing today the call for papers & award nominations for the Israeli Intelligence Studies Conference 2025!

🗓️ October 28-29, 2025
🌎 @hebrewuniversity.bsky.social, Jerusalem

📩 Submission deadline: July 31, 2025

Is the evocation of "organizational culture" a way to avoid personal accountability for (an intelligence) failure?

Whose interests are served by the construction of public, academic discourse over "intelligence failure(s)"?

Join us for a talk by Prof. Hamilton Bean>>

Is the evocation of "organizational culture" a way to avoid personal accountability for (an intelligence) failure?

Whose interests are served by the construction of public, academic discourse over "intelligence failure(s)"?

Join us for a talk by Prof. Hamilton Bean>>

TOMORROW

The long wait is over. 2025 is going to be a great year. Coming soon with Oxford University Press.

If you wish to join this meeting, fill out this form: forms.gle/eMg5TKy4G4zK...

For more info - visit our website: www.ifis.co.il

October 7 raised many difficult questions relating not only to collection and analysis, but also to the relationship b/w intelligence and policymakers.

On Jan. 21 we will hold a panel to discuss intel-policy relations in a comparative perspective (USA, Russia, & Israel)>>