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Ensembleator

@ensembleator

Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.

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Latest posts by Ensembleator @ensembleator

Today not tomorrow. Tomorrow windy too though: "Euro has the deepening low Xing N central VI early Wed eve"

11.03.2026 11:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Rain, increasing wind tdy #YVR w/gusts peaking this eve (75 km/h beaches) as a deepening low now at 47.5N 138W (W end of the baroclinic leaf) crosses central VI. Shwrs Thu w/winds diminishing PM. Vrbl skies Fri. Wknd looks cool/mainly dry/breezy.

11.03.2026 11:44 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Could happen if precip rates ramp up enough in the earlier morning

11.03.2026 00:50 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Potential wndstorm tmrw-Thu for Srn BC now dvlpg alg the tail of the 52N 149W vortmax at at 47.5N 154.5W. There is plenty of available potential energy for dvlpmnt. Euro has the deepening low Xing N central VI early Thu eve when #@YVR would expect max wind, SE-SW gusts ~ 70 km/h but windy thru Thu

11.03.2026 00:45 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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4-5cm at spots now

10.03.2026 17:51 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Wintry up at #SFU but sticking only to the gras and trees so far.

10.03.2026 15:53 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Flat, snow-bearing sky #YVR

10.03.2026 15:35 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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A cold unstabl trof moves thru cstl BC tdy. Wintry shwrs this AM #YVR bcmg mainly wet ltr at lower elevs. Breezy. A compact low dvlps on the Jet to the SW + deepens as it Xs VI Wed. Wintry precip to start nr sea lvl then rain. Windy. Much mdl uncertainty on depth/deepeng rate. Shwry/breezy Thu

10.03.2026 14:02 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Convective precipitation over the Fraser River, looking east from the Port Mann Bridge bike path

Convective precipitation over the Fraser River, looking east from the Port Mann Bridge bike path

One of those showers looks rather heavy. View looking east from the Port Mann Bridge bike path

09.03.2026 16:53 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Wet flurry DT #YVR this morning

09.03.2026 15:57 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
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Not often, we get lenticular-esque looking tight clouds over Golden Ears

0755H PDT | 09 March 2026

#ShareYourWeather #BCStorm #BCStormWatch #YVRwx #SweetCloudAction @ensembleator.bsky.social

09.03.2026 15:07 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Vrbl skies #YVR w/chc shwrs, hier elev flurries tdy in an unstbl cool Wly flow aloft w/a stg Pacific Jet stuck to the S alg 45N. A weak trof tmrw AM comes onshor w/some wet snow likely even down to sea lvl and much more at hier areas in the LM, #SFU. Pds rain Wed-Thu w/a pause Fri-Sat. Windy Wed.

09.03.2026 14:02 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Like an upper front as cool air aloft floods in overhead

09.03.2026 02:18 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Anticipated view out my window at 5 AM when I start work in December 2026 and 4 hours later at 9 AM when I take a break for breakfast:

08.03.2026 16:45 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes in the AM. CMC has rain in the city (low levels), Euro dry. Pick your favourite.

08.03.2026 16:37 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Gusty NW winds tdy in the wake of a cold fnt, bit of a lull ltr PM then back up at the beaches ovnite #YVR. Chc shwrs erly this AM then vrbl skies. Cool w/a chc 🚿/wet ❄️ Mon AM then chc shwrs for the rest of the day. Chc 🚿/wet❄️Tue, breezy, cool. Pds rain Wed-Fri. Yuck! Alpine snow tho. Yum.

08.03.2026 14:24 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Looks like a quick jump up Wed to above the N shore peaks but some reversion to cooler weather thereafter.

07.03.2026 22:23 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Shwrs lift into the Alpine #YVR this AM as a rdg blds into SWBC. A wv dvlpg this AM 52N 142W slides dwn the cst ovnite w/rain endg erly Sun AM then cool/breezy w/vrbl skies. Cool w/shwrs of 🌧️or❄️Mon. Light rain likely Tue, possibly hvy Wed as a subtropical plume hits the cst. Chc shwrs Thu-Fri

07.03.2026 15:45 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Maybe some wet flakes Mon AM/Wed AM?

06.03.2026 17:47 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

You might be OK. Soil rarely freezes in the city in March although tender plants may suffer

06.03.2026 17:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Ensembles do indicate a higher chc of precip in the latter half of next week for the SWBC coastal area. Only the CMC control and a couple other members indicate significant heavy precip so odds are in the 10% range

06.03.2026 15:50 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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A moist NW flo streams onto the BC cst, arcing ovr the top of a bldg upr hi ~37N 144W. The hi xpands into SWBC on Sat, ending pcpn. It shifts inland Sun w/a cold fnt in its wake. Rain #YVR taperg to lgt shwrs Sat AM. Pre fntl shwrs Sat eve-Sun AM then vrbl skies/wndy. Unsettled/cool Mon-Wed chc 🌧️/❄️

06.03.2026 15:46 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Maybe some in the air at sea level. Little chance of low level accumulation.

05.03.2026 14:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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A stg upr rdg blds ovr ~40N 140W for the next few days, slowly shifting E, leaving SWBC in a NW flow aloft, bcmg W by Sun. Moisture arcs ovr the rdg tmrw. Vrbl skies tdy #YVR and breezy AM. Rain Fri tapering eve. Sat looks mostly dry w/chc shwr PM - Sun AM. Breezy Sun. Unsettled/cool Mon-Wed

05.03.2026 14:48 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Shwrs tdy #YVR as a vertically stacked trof tracks E thru SWBC. In its wake a stg sfc rdg blds into the cst, for a dry Thu w/vrbl skies. Breezy W wind AM. A warm fnt brings rain Fri taperg to shwrs Sat. A sharp wv trailing a cold fnt w/shwrs/wind Sun. Cool, vrbl skies Mon. Chc 🌧️ or wet ❄️Tue

04.03.2026 14:59 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Cool to cold wave over much of the country in the NAEFS ensemble for mid March, while the US SW bakes.

03.03.2026 16:49 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, potentially into "wet flurry land" 9-11

03.03.2026 15:40 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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#YVR undr a moist SW flow btn a deep low 52N 146W + an upr rdg just inland. A pair of wvs in the flow move thru SWBC thru Wed PM. Then, flow shifts NW as a large upr rdg blds onshore. Rain tdy. Chc shwrs Wed. Thu looks dry/breezy. Moisture arcing ovr the rdg brings shwrs Fri-Sat. Cool wind/rain Sun

03.03.2026 14:57 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The β€œWorm Moon” eclipsed by a worm of cirrostratus #YVR

03.03.2026 03:03 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Ptchy AM low cld nr the Strait otwz vrbl hi clds undr a weak upr ridge and WLy flow aloft. Rain Tue taprs to shwrs Wed AM as a couple of sfc/upr trofs move thru SWBC fm the SW. Rdg ofshr builds late Wed w/SWBC in an unsettled NW flow. Warm fnt w/rain Fri. Wknd unsettled. Storm chc (wind) Sun PM-Mon

02.03.2026 14:44 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0