@rgoodlaw
https://www.youtube.com/@RGoodLaw Co-editor-in-chief @justsecurity.org. Chaired Prof at NYU Law. Former Chaired Prof Harvard. Former Special Counsel Defense Dept. https://www.justsecurity.org/author/goodmanryan
Reuters Exclusive
"U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school."
"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the Middle East."
2/ Link to President Trump's interview with Reuters including on support for Kurdish forces.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Middle East War about to take a sharp turn in the likely direction of greater chaos.
President Trump on Kurdish ground offensive:
“I think it’s wonderful that they want to do that, I’d be all for it."
What could go wrong:
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
3/ Another separate question: The U.S. attack on Iran (including its military assets) is unlawful under the UN Charter (indeed, the crime of aggression). "Jus ad bellum" is that body of law.
Under Geneva Conventions/"jus in bello" for targeting the vessel during armed conflict - that act is lawful.
2/
Separate question: the morality of striking the vessel.
Another separate question: legality of failure to search for and collect the shipwrecked.
But the initial attack to destroy the ship is no war crime. Note: the lack of law of war experts claiming it was.
Need to preserve the claim of "war crime" for when it accurately applies.
Lots of non-lawyers out there calling U.S. submarine sinking of Iranian military vessel a war crime.
That's wrong.
Vessel was clearly a legally targetable military object. And people on board weren't civilians.
1/
FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?
"Several Iranian Kurdish leaders described the strikes in eastern Iran as part of an effort to support an infiltration from Iraq."
"The bombardments have come at a huge cost to civilian lives in the area, Iranians who have relatives there told The Times."
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...
4/ Now updated as much more mixed on status of any Kurdish ground offensive:
3/ Powerful capstone paragraph in The Atlantic essay
"For many years, as they fought off the brutal dictatorship ruling over them, Iranians have worried that their struggle might lead to civil war and chaos. That scenario now seems closer than ever."
2/ "The fear among many Iranians and other observers is that the agendas of the ethnic militias are territorial and separatist and could lead Iran to disintegration or civil war."
By @arashtehran.bsky.social
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
"Thousands of Kurdish fighters have begun ground activity inside Iran from areas near the Iraqi border, according to senior American and Israeli officials."
www.jpost.com/middle-east/...
"The Republican-led House Oversight Committee voted to subpoena US Attorney General Pam Bondi for testimony about her role in the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files."
Passed 24-19 with Republicans Nancy Mace, Tim Burchett, Michael Cloud, Lauren Boebert and Scott Perry voting in favor.
Q: Secretary Hegseth, thank you. Regan Reese with the Daily Caller. You touched on this in your opening remarks, but I'm hoping you could expand on it a bit. It's been reported that Iran might be trying to outlast our ability to intercept their missiles. It sounds like you guys are saying they don't have the ability to do so. Is that the case? Can we – can they outlast us and their ability to do that? SECRETARY HEGSETH: Iran cannot outlast us. We are going to ensure through violence of action and our offensive capabilities and our defensive capabilities, as I said, that we set the tone and the tempo of this fight. That's why stories and speculation about different things that try to make it look like we're limited in what we can do, the only limits we have on this is President Trump's desire to achieve specific effects on behalf of the American people. And that's why we don't talk about – you know, you can say four weeks, but it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three. Ultimately, we set the pace and the tempo. The enemy's gonna – is off balance, and we're going to keep them off balance. And we know their ability to shoot versus our ability to defend. That difference gets wider and wider every day. Our defense gets better. Their offense capabilities diminish as we are going into ammunitions that we, as we said, have tens of thousands of and can drop unlimited supplies on, with even more effects than the stand-off munitions we have now, which is why, when we say the throttle's going up, the throttle's going up. And it's going to stay on high.
5/ Full exchange with Sec Hegseth:
www.war.gov/News/Transcr...
4/ Senator Kelly quote is from
US Air Defenses May Not Be Able to Intercept Many of Iran’s One-Way Drones
By @natashabertrand.bsky.social Kylie Atwood, Sarah Ferris, @piperhudsburn.bsky.social
3/ And emerging from closed door briefing with Hegseth and Caine yesterday, @captmarkkelly.bsky.social said:
"We do not have an unlimited supply. ... So at some point … this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?”
2/ Same day CNN reports on interceptor shortfall.
The Iran War’s Troubling Missile Math
By snlyngaas.bsky.social Kylie Atwood @ikhurshudyan.bsky.social
edition.cnn.com/2026/03/04/p...
A key to waging war successfully is retaining public trust and playing it straight.
SecDef Pete Hegseth appears to be doing the opposite here - with his claims about US interceptor capacities contradicted by real time reporting.
Echoes of Vietnam-era false assurances.
1/
2/ More details in the Early Edition here.
- Maltese-flagged container ship Safeen Prestige
- while transiting eastbound in the Strait of Hormuz
www.justsecurity.org/133079/early...
While transiting the Strait of Hormuz
"A container ship has reported being hit by an unknown projectile just above the water line causing a fire in the engine room."
"The crew have now abandoned the vessel."
3/ “This has the potential to undermine Iraqi sovereignty and essentially empower armed militias with no accountability and with little understanding of what it may set in motion.”
- Jen Gavito, former senior U.S. diplomat in CNN interview
2/ What could possibly go wrong?
"Another US official said the Kurds could help sow chaos in the region and stretch the Iranian regime’s military resources thin."
www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/p...
The next Forever War is here.
"The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN."
“Fortunately, we have Andrew Weissmann to illuminate these dark times and to offer a roadmap back to sanity, a reinvestment in our age-old principles and a return to virtue.”
- @kenlburns.bsky.social
Order new book here: linktr.ee/liarskingdom
Description: weissmann.substack.com/p/my-new-boo...
2/
Subset isolates when POTUS made decision to abandon negotiations, resort to war.
Subset gets at pre-strike assessments - what stakes for the American people were considered, and for the region.
Subset gets at intelligence assessments and levels of confidence on what happens next.
Much more.
With senior US officials briefing Congress on Tuesday about Iran war plans.
I teamed up with @tessbridgeman.bsky.social @k8brannen.bsky.social
Top Questions the Trump Administration Needs to Answer on War with Iran
Also plenty of questions for journalists (and the public) here.
🧵1/
4/ "On Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Trump officials also offered public assertions that differed from the consensus among other countries and independent experts, and didn’t share intelligence with lawmakers to bolster their claims."
3/ "No evidence was found that Tehran’s effort to field intercontinental missiles able to reach the US was close to fruition, according to a lawmaker familiar with the assessments. Recent US intelligence assessments had concluded that Iran couldn’t develop dozens of missiles for at least a decade."
2/ "Some lawmakers and U.S. officials say Iran was nowhere near capable of building a nuclear weapon, even if Tehran seeks one. They also say there is NO EVIDENCE to support Trump’s claim that Iran could rapidly develop a missile capable of striking the U.S."
www.wsj.com/world/middle...