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John McTernan

@johnmct

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Latest posts by John McTernan @johnmct

Good news: can be reasonably sure BLS numbers aren’t being manipulated.

06.03.2026 13:39 👍 47 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 1

quite apart from Kemi Badenoch's dismal performance on BBC Breakfast, minimising the work of the RAF, she spoke of Labour 'not being built' for conflict because they came into power to do things like 'breakfast clubs' in such a disparaging way, like feeding kids is a joke ambition

06.03.2026 11:52 👍 560 🔁 103 💬 55 📌 20

So, the really revealing part for me was in her Today programme interview where she claims we've learned the lessons if Iraq:

- Be prepared
- Have a plan
- Have an endgame

Then, when it is pointed out that none of these things apply here, waffles for over a minute about arrows and archers.

06.03.2026 14:31 👍 29 🔁 9 💬 4 📌 0

As I'm always saying: bring back the pamphlet!

There's a big space for non-fiction writing that sits somewhere between the long-read (c.5k words) and the full book (c.80k words).

06.03.2026 16:18 👍 38 🔁 6 💬 6 📌 0

"Labour came into government to do breakfast clubs, not to invade Iran. I came into office to invade Iran."

06.03.2026 14:25 👍 202 🔁 37 💬 14 📌 2
Preview
Labour is suffering from a bad case of “long Morgan” Chasing Reform voters on immigration is a bad strategy that is being badly executed by this government

What I describe as “Long Morgan” in my NS piece:

www.newstatesman.com/comment/2026...

06.03.2026 17:15 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
Starmer is facing a cocktail of dissent that is growing ever more potent After the Greens’ byelection win, PM’s failure to make a progressive offer has angered Labour’s soft-left majority

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

06.03.2026 14:48 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 1
Preview
Outraged and outplayed: how we lost the Brexit wars Morgan Jones’s new book unpicks the chaos of the campaign for a second referendum

Free to read on Substack: my, let’s say still quite furious, review of @morganj0nes.bsky.social’s book on the People’s Vote campaign.

substack.com/@rostaylor24...

06.03.2026 16:41 👍 17 🔁 5 💬 3 📌 1
Preview
Trump's ‘move fast and break things’ war slams into economy South Asian and Gulf countries may get hit particularly hard, mostly on energy, remittances, and agriculture. Here's how.

Very useful from @rajakorman.bsky.social on the economic impacts across the Global South.

responsiblestatecraft.org/war-ian-glob...

06.03.2026 16:44 👍 12 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0

👍🏿

06.03.2026 16:32 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
8 Badass Librarians We Need to Celebrate This International Women’s Day In the late Victorian era, Melvil Dewey, inventor of the Dewey Decimal system (and a womanizer) argued that women make excellent librarians because we have “a clear head, strong hand… and great hea…

8 Badass Librarians We Need to Celebrate This International Women’s Day lithub.com/8-badass-lib...

06.03.2026 12:17 👍 8 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0

So a tiny minority more than previous generations holds more misogynistic views. But don’t let that stop the narrative.

06.03.2026 09:54 👍 28 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0

thanks

06.03.2026 13:20 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

No better reason for the UK declining to be part of the attack.

06.03.2026 11:09 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
Preview
Sánchez’s principled stand against Trump matters. So does Merz’s silence Spain’s leader has taken a strong position in refusing the US demand to use Spanish bases to strike Iran. Europe should show solidarity in the face of Trump’s threats.

Pedro Sánchez has taken a strong position in refusing the US demand to use Spanish bases to strike Iran. Europe should show solidarity with Spain in the face of Donald Trump’s threats. https://bit.ly/4l7IYhs

06.03.2026 08:00 👍 21 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 0

These headlines should always read “New secondary moderns set to return”, since that’s where most kids will go under that system.

06.03.2026 07:26 👍 184 🔁 56 💬 11 📌 0
Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations — or promises — articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends.  Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 201625. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour government’s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.

Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations — or promises — articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends. Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 201625. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour government’s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.

My new @iza.org/LISER paper

Control Without Credibility: Immigration to the UK Since the Brexit Referendum

docs.iza.org/dp18419.pdf

05.03.2026 17:34 👍 17 🔁 13 💬 2 📌 0
Preview
Iran turns to cheap drones as US and Israel target missile launchers Shahed and other projectiles dominate Tehran’s retaliation

This is an excellent read. www.ft.com/content/218b... Iran turns to cheap drones as US and Israel target missile launchers

05.03.2026 20:01 👍 14 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0

Points to power of symbols.

Cutting winter fuel payments was so austerity coded it doesn’t matter it has been restored, it’s an emblem because it was attempted.

And sticks because it is inexplicable.

05.03.2026 23:01 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Post image

Very strong statement from the First Lady of Iraq:

05.03.2026 18:11 👍 9374 🔁 2851 💬 316 📌 161

Meanwhile the 2024 Labour govt was first govt of either party in history whose electorate was majority pro-immigration in broad terms. Reforms like this just don't make political sense. Obviously policy doesn't have to be popular, but Mahmood claims there is an electoral case for this. There isn't!

05.03.2026 09:34 👍 20 🔁 9 💬 2 📌 0

Your regular reminder than a large majority of voters - and overwhelming majority of Labour voters - favour giving settled migrants access to the welfare state after five years or less. The Home Secretary is not reforming rules in line with public opinion. She is doing the opposite.

05.03.2026 08:22 👍 614 🔁 247 💬 23 📌 10
South Dakota's "Meth. We're on it" campaign

South Dakota's "Meth. We're on it" campaign

I'll always remember Kristi Noem for the "Meth. We're on it." campaign.

05.03.2026 20:32 👍 7022 🔁 1220 💬 90 📌 91
If there is evidence of irregularities at some polling stations at the Gorton and Denton byelection, then that evidence should be properly and promptly investigated in accordance with due process by the proper authorities. And that is what is being done. Any denunciations of the election result should thereby await the result of this process.

The losing party spokesperson candidly admitted the day after the election that any irregularities were not enough to have affected the result, which was emphatic. But this did not prevent the losing party’s leader from loudly promoting grave allegations of sectarian voting, corruption and dishonesty. Yet if the irregularities are not upheld on investigation as invalidating the result, it is unlikely that those findings will be shouted about.

And such a response is irresponsible. Parts of the United Kingdom have a history of sectarian violence. Parts of the United Kingdom have histories of racial tension. Responsible politicians should not exploit such allegations for partisan advantage. Making such allegations is to play with fire, literally. 

Responsible politicians should be careful to avoid subverting the very fundamentals on which a functioning democracy rests. Such “poisoning of the wells” is familiar to those following the politics of the United States, and it lay behind the lethal violence that took place in Washington DC on 6th January 2021.

If there is evidence of irregularities at some polling stations at the Gorton and Denton byelection, then that evidence should be properly and promptly investigated in accordance with due process by the proper authorities. And that is what is being done. Any denunciations of the election result should thereby await the result of this process. The losing party spokesperson candidly admitted the day after the election that any irregularities were not enough to have affected the result, which was emphatic. But this did not prevent the losing party’s leader from loudly promoting grave allegations of sectarian voting, corruption and dishonesty. Yet if the irregularities are not upheld on investigation as invalidating the result, it is unlikely that those findings will be shouted about. And such a response is irresponsible. Parts of the United Kingdom have a history of sectarian violence. Parts of the United Kingdom have histories of racial tension. Responsible politicians should not exploit such allegations for partisan advantage. Making such allegations is to play with fire, literally. Responsible politicians should be careful to avoid subverting the very fundamentals on which a functioning democracy rests. Such “poisoning of the wells” is familiar to those following the politics of the United States, and it lay behind the lethal violence that took place in Washington DC on 6th January 2021.

New

The poisoning of the wells

Why discrediting election results without waiting for due process is unhealthy for a democracy

This week's Weekly Constitutional by me at @prospectmagazine.co.uk

05.03.2026 11:55 👍 327 🔁 116 💬 10 📌 5

If you think I'm overstating concerns about the loyalties of US tech companies - check out this memo from Anthropic CEO to staff on their battle with the Trump administration.

05.03.2026 16:37 👍 278 🔁 123 💬 8 📌 0

What I will never understand is....Twitter was *never* a good gauge of public opinion! I genuinely cannot understand the people who have clearly been using it as a measure of something other than 'internal leadership contests' (where it was genuinely useful' or 'ways to discover cool links'.

05.03.2026 17:19 👍 482 🔁 100 💬 25 📌 4
 This article was amended on 5 March 2026. An earlier version said low-skilled workers would “receive immediate access to welfare and social housing” if Labour did not make them wait longer to apply for settlement. In fact, settlement status only gives people the eligibility to apply for welfare and social housing, it does not give them instant or automatic access to such benefits. This has been clarified.

From breaking news to huge investigative proje

This article was amended on 5 March 2026. An earlier version said low-skilled workers would “receive immediate access to welfare and social housing” if Labour did not make them wait longer to apply for settlement. In fact, settlement status only gives people the eligibility to apply for welfare and social housing, it does not give them instant or automatic access to such benefits. This has been clarified. From breaking news to huge investigative proje

Guardian has now [after my complaint] corrected Mahmood's deliberate & incendiary false claim settlement gives immigrants "immediate access to welfare and social housing".

Good for Gdn but embarrassing/shameful that Home Secretary deliberately misled the public for political gain like this.

05.03.2026 16:45 👍 606 🔁 255 💬 21 📌 15
Preview
Labour is suffering from a bad case of “long Morgan” Chasing Reform voters on immigration is a bad strategy that is being badly executed by this government

Labour needs to recover from “Long Morgan”, as I wrote for the New Statesman:

www.newstatesman.com/comment/2026...

05.03.2026 18:12 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
Forlorn Xmas tree abandoned at street side on 111, newly emerged from snowmelt.

Forlorn Xmas tree abandoned at street side on 111, newly emerged from snowmelt.

Sort of like when the mummies of baby mammoths emerge from the melting permafrost

05.03.2026 14:11 👍 27 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
More Ministers To Be Paid Under Payroll Reforms Exclusive: The number of paid ministerial roles is to increase as part of new government reforms to be announced on Thursday.

This is interesting - on the one hand, makes sense given how much is expected of ministers in the Lords (who don't have a base salary, just an allowance)

But I do think this is a failing to be more innovative about what ministers are for...

www.politicshome.com/news/article...

05.03.2026 14:11 👍 7 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0