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Declan Gaffney

@greyskiesthinking

Research, analysis & grey-skies thinking on labour markets, social security, public finance & equality. Usual disclaimer. Cheap foreign labour ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช. Profile pic is Takashi Shimura with Toshiro Mifune in Stray Dog (Akira Kurosawa, 1949).

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Latest posts by Declan Gaffney @greyskiesthinking

Presumably this is the snack to have if youโ€™re drinking Black and Tans.

06.03.2026 23:24 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Did you know?

In 2024, the govt had to rename the statutory enquiry process for DA deaths to โ€˜Domestic Abuse Related Death Review (DARDR)โ€™* because suicide is the most common cause of death in domestic abuse cases.

(was Domestic Homicide Review)

06.03.2026 22:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 12 ๐Ÿ” 6 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Market research for the possible relaunch* of 'Socialisme ou Barbarie'

On a scale of 1 to 10 how do you rate the following options?

(a) Socialism

(b) Barbarism

*if only

06.03.2026 23:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This reminds me of the many weird conversations I had with English people, post-Brexit, insisting that the Republic of Ireland would want to rejoin the UK. As if the best solution to every modern problem must be to restore some version of the old British Imperial order. Utterly mental.

06.03.2026 22:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 33 ๐Ÿ” 9 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Trump Occasionally Redefines Threats Into Limited, Lighter Asks.

06.03.2026 19:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 12 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

๐Ÿ™

06.03.2026 18:48 ๐Ÿ‘ 28 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Oh mine too. And I found her playing back then - which was iirc more focussed on timbre and spooky chord playing - more interesting than anything I've heard from her since.

06.03.2026 12:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Beginning to feel about Labour the way I feel about America. Sure this frenzy might pass but the fact that it can happen means you have to permanently re-calibrate your expectations.

06.03.2026 12:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I see Mary Halvorson is on it - I remember being very struck by her playing at an Anthony Braxton gig at least 20 years ago.

06.03.2026 12:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Until someone works out how to get monopoly profits from renewables they are constantly going to be attacked by frightened oligarchs.

06.03.2026 11:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 84 ๐Ÿ” 19 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Oh no Soweto played a track from the first of those last night and it was really good.

06.03.2026 11:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

There is a remarkable process of elite radicalisation - based on a cartoonish caricature of the Great British Public

bsky.app/profile/sund...

05.03.2026 21:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 68 ๐Ÿ” 21 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image

Serendipity

05.03.2026 21:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I know what limogรฉe means and even half-remember the etymology but I still can't help translating it as 'enamelled'.

05.03.2026 21:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Ugh. If there was an opposite of the 'like' button.

05.03.2026 19:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas definitely sounds like a real and important thing, absolutely, 100%, much shield very envoy such important wow

05.03.2026 19:02 ๐Ÿ‘ 80 ๐Ÿ” 13 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 12 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations โ€” or promises โ€” articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends.  Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 201625. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour governmentโ€™s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.

Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations โ€” or promises โ€” articulated at the time. This paper provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends. Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 201625. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and, in particular, the Labour governmentโ€™s approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.

My new @iza.org/LISER paper

Control Without Credibility: Immigration to the UK Since the Brexit Referendum

docs.iza.org/dp18419.pdf

05.03.2026 17:34 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 13 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Cruelty to immigrants is not what my party stands for. Itโ€™s time for True Labour, not Blue Labour | Stella Creasy We must get back to the partyโ€™s roots before it is too late. That means embracing difference, rejecting division โ€“ and fighting for opportunities for all, says MP for Walthamstow, Stella Creasy

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

05.03.2026 17:41 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Of course one of the problems for us non-British Labour members these days is that when Labour politicians say 'we' and'our' they probably aren't talking about us.

05.03.2026 16:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I don't know of any values I share with the home secretary.

05.03.2026 16:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 27 ๐Ÿ” 7 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Movie title, very simply: AVOIDANCE.

05.03.2026 14:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

He has an hour and half to get on the plane to avoid his huge tax bill but what if ...he falls in love with a complete stranger?

05.03.2026 14:34 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Great one-line movie scenario.

05.03.2026 14:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

As always my answer is Luis Buรฑuel's Wuthering Heights, which exists but which I have never seen.

05.03.2026 14:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
That the UK needs new leadership is clear. Starmer's allies say that he is still the best option Labour has. Their argument is that he has had to struggle with a grim economic inheritance and the turmoil of Donald Trump's second term and the impact of the Ukraine war on Europe's security.
Mistakes have been made, but he has climbed a steep learning curve; he has three years to put things right and deserves the chance to do so.
This is not a trivial argument. It deserves to be taken seriously. However, Labour's own history of successes and failures contains clear lessons for anyone aspiring to lead the party effectively. Starmer has shown little interest in learning them. For instance, nobody familiar with Labour's progressive traditions and fights for equality would have drafted a speech warning that this country was fast becoming
"an island of strangers". Any senior Labour politician aware of those traditions would have instantly deleted or refused to say those words.

That the UK needs new leadership is clear. Starmer's allies say that he is still the best option Labour has. Their argument is that he has had to struggle with a grim economic inheritance and the turmoil of Donald Trump's second term and the impact of the Ukraine war on Europe's security. Mistakes have been made, but he has climbed a steep learning curve; he has three years to put things right and deserves the chance to do so. This is not a trivial argument. It deserves to be taken seriously. However, Labour's own history of successes and failures contains clear lessons for anyone aspiring to lead the party effectively. Starmer has shown little interest in learning them. For instance, nobody familiar with Labour's progressive traditions and fights for equality would have drafted a speech warning that this country was fast becoming "an island of strangers". Any senior Labour politician aware of those traditions would have instantly deleted or refused to say those words.

Suffice to say Starmer has done none of these. Kellner concludes thus.

05.03.2026 13:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

And isn't brandade de morue a Cork dish after all? France is virtually an exclave.

05.03.2026 12:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

He likes France but.

05.03.2026 12:12 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The results for youse and your neighbours in the Kingdom would be particularly interesting.

05.03.2026 11:42 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Yes, I was thinking of county sports. I like it personally.

05.03.2026 11:40 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Has anyone done this for Ireland?

05.03.2026 11:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0