@ldjeconomics
William E. and Virginia Clemens Professor of Economics and the Liberal Arts at the College of Saint Benedict and Saint John's University. Telling the stories of Minnesota's economy, past and present. https://www.csbsju.edu/economics/person/louis-johnston/
Happy #JobsDay!
At 8:30 am ET, @usbls.bsky.social delivers one of the most-important signals about how economy is changing
Forecasts’ center:
+50K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) steady at 4.3%
This might be an example of the Winner's Curse...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
He will do this the same way that Marco Rubio eliminated USAID, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. destroyed public health infrastructure and research at HHS, Lee Zeldin wrecked climate science at EPAL to discredit the work that Fed economists are doing and fire as many of them as possible.
This is another clear sign that the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is going to try to destroy the expertise of the Federal Reserve and the regional Federal Reserve banks.
Kevin Hassett is lying. The paper is a careful study of the effects of tariffs. The method is set out in an earlier paper that is freely available: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
My hypothesis is that this is another example of how the president doesn't understand how percentage changes work. Quarterly GDP growth rates, like the 5% he mentions, are on an annual basis. It's not the case that 5% annual growth for 4 quarters adds up to 20% growth...
This is nonsense. The only time we grew this fast, in terms of real GDP, was 1941 through 1943. Source: www.measuringworth.com/datasets/usg...
Dad's hometown
My latest for streets! Did you know MNDOT owns half a rail line between here and Fargo? Begs the question, why not use it for passenger rail?
Relevant for today's financial market news:
www.minnpost.com/community-vo...
open.substack.com/pub/louisjoh...
Here's what's really going on, Rep. Emmer:
www.sctimes.com/story/news/l...
From soybeans to coffee beans!
If we make it harder for residents to send money abroad, what's next? Capital controls?
open.substack.com/pub/louisjoh...
This area is a perfect example of how immigration brings economic dynamism to an area. Now, the Trump Administration is trying to destroy it. Shame on them and kudos to my friends and neighbors who stood against ICE.
Every space on both corners is occupied and a new apartment building will soon go up. There is a convenience store, travel agency, mosque, pharmacy, grocery store, coffee shop, and other businesses catering to our Somali neighbors (not to mention bringing their goods and services to all of us).
Across the street, on the southwest corner, a brewery/pub opened, then closed, then opened, then closed over the course of a few years. The rest of that strip mall slowly died at the same time.
Now, this is one of the busiest, most vibrant economic places in St. Cloud.
Let me give you some background on this story...
The Star City Mall is at the corner of 3rd Street North and 33rd Avenue North, and it was slowly dying when I moved to St. Cloud in July 1997.
St. Gabriel the Archangel Catholic Church in Hopkins
stgabrielhopkins.org/news
Congress must stand up to mobster monetary policy
open.substack.com/pub/louisjoh...
The companies say deal will combine route networks to offer Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport to more mid-sized markets and vacation destinations.
At 8:30 am ET, @usbls.bsky.social delivers what’s usually one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing
Forecasts’ center:
+73K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) -0.1 percentage point (pp) to 4.5%
FREY: “.. the administration is sending a message to the entire country: If you show up for your immigrant neighbors, or even are simply present when those neighbors are taken, your rights will not be protected by the law and your life will be at risk.”
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/o...
"While I cannot take the time to name all the men in the State Department who have been named as members of the Communist Party and members of a spy ring, I have here in my hand a list of 205." Joseph R. McCarthy, February 9, 1950 www.senate.gov/about/powers...
Source: Timothy Snyder (@timothysnyder.bsky.social), On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century timothysnyder.org
"It was an act of domestic terrorism," said Homeland Security Secretary Noem with regard to victim's actions.
