I wrote an article for @rusi.bsky.social about the recent purges within the Central Military Commission and how Xi Jinping's modus operandi draws on both Leninist and Maoist tactics to enforce loyalty within the Party and its army. 3/3
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Recent purges within the Central Military Commission (CMC) in China echo the Chekist approach to ideological purity and absolute loyalty to the Party and, at its core, Xi Jinping. 2/
Remember the Cheka? The first Soviet secret security organisation, established in 1917 by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin to protect the Bolshevik Revolution. It was designed to eliminate threats to the Soviet regime and, eventually, it was the Cheka that enforced the Red Terror against political opponents.1/
And as Mr Rachman concludes: “Given all these uncertainties, it makes sense for countries to reduce their reliance on America.” 4/4
“We were lucky that America was so long governed by political elites who respected democracy and independent institutions, but we have to recognise that what we are now witnessing may be the real America.” 3/
While the foreign policy establishment, particularly among allies, certainly holds this as the preferred scenario, I want to cite a conversation from yesterday:
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“After Trump, the old America could make a comeback”, Gideon Rachman writes in his latest worth-reading column in FT.
“The gathering backlash against Trump is steadily increasing the chance that his presidency will ultimately be seen as a grotesque aberration — rather than a lasting shift.” 1/
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Investors pour billions into Europe’s AI and defence start-ups
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Nothing happens in Europe dominates the discussions too often:
Investors are pouring billions of euros into European AI and defence tech start-ups, backing companies seen as critical to Europe’s economic competitiveness and security.
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3) Xi may have learned a thing or two from Russia’s war in Ukraine; bad morals, close to zero training, and a lack of respect for individual soldiers equal a bad army. 4/4
1) Relating to the regent purges, Xi is seeking the support of the masses (not the first time).
2) Note: “war preparedness” –rumours about Gen Zhang Youxia either crossing with Xi’s plans on Taiwan or failing the combat readiness timeline, or both, may actually hold some truth. 3/4
…and urged all levels to do a good job in all aspects of guarantees, so that the broad masses of officers and soldiers can better dedicate themselves to military construction and war preparedness.” Quote source Manoj Kewalramani 2/4
Interesting article on People’s Daily today about Xi Jinping’s attention to grassroots officers.
“Chairman Xi is extremely concerned about the life of the officers and soldiers on board; ….
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Those who voted against Russia, Iran, Belarus, etc., are no surprise, but China, India, Indonesia, among many others, abstained. Seemingly a morally challenging decision indeed, whether a war aggressor should return children to their parents whom it has kidnapped as an action of war.
When Russia praises the new US security strategy, you get the idea of the magnitude of the shift that has taken place.
WSJ headline
🗣️ ‘The new embassy poses concrete security risks, and symbolically feeds into the war on narratives, amplifying the idea democracy is weak and has a propensity to sacrifice national security for economic gains,’ says @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, our International Fellow
#Tangram #ObservingChina
Even if nobody believes that the G2 order is emerging by agreement, Beijing must be pleased to be seen as an equal peer.
Bessent said that the US would counter China together with allies. Allies understand that countering China starts in Ukraine, not by appeasing Putin.
MEP Marketka Gregorova:
“It is unbelievable that the president of China officially states that he is neutral in the conflict and that the territorial integrity of states should be respected, but then representatives of his Parliament come here to repeat Russian propaganda.” 4/
The meeting bw the EU Parliament’s 🇨🇳delegation and members of 🇨🇳NPC was the first in 7yrs, after Beijing’s decision earlier this year to lift sanctions on current and former MEPs.
But rather than a diplomatic thaw, the meeting was tense and testy, marked by the 🇨🇳side challenging NATO’s legitimacy.2/
Chinese lawmakers told members of the European Parliament that NATO shouldn’t exist, and spouted Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine at a rare meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
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We are pleased to announce that @sariarhohavren.bsky.social and Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel are joining us as International Fellows!
🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....
It is actually positive news that President Trump will not meet with the Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping.
During President Stubb’s visit to the White House, President Trump answered Finnish media’s questions and said the United States has no plans to withdraw its troops from Europe, but they may be redeployed.
Beijing kills two (or more) birds with one stone with the new export controls. For Europe, this means seriously slowing down Europe’s rearmament by hitting hard at European defence industries. Beijing was never a fan of the 5% GDP defence target.
Meanwhile, the EU views China as bad in helping Russia in its war efforts, but India as good in helping Russia, considering how desperate the EU is to close its trade deal w 🇮🇳 by the end of the year.
And fwiw, 🇨🇳 should be held responsible for being the biggest enabler of Russia’s war machine. 3/3
In August, Modi “reiterated India’s commitment to extend all possible support [for the earliest restoration of peace]” in Ukraine directly to Zelenskyy.
And yet, as many times before, Modi calls Putin—a war criminal—his friend. 2/3
Inconsistency in foreign affairs is the new normal.
Modi just congratulated Putin:
“Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3
