This is great.
13.06.2025 05:32
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This is great.
It's bad. But it won't get better if we don't fight.
Today's Morning Shots from @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social and @eggerdc.bsky.social:
2/ Erica Chenoweth, who has studied regime change from 1900 to present, discovered that nonviolent protests are TWICE as likely to result in regime change compared to armed conflict
- and the amazing power of everyday people, protesting together
She's posted Q&A here:
bsky.app/profile/chen...
1/ Reminder - research shows most effective way to cause regime change... persistent nonviolent public pressure
- if as little as 3.5% of the population takes to streets AND STAYS THERE, unwanted regimes will often just leave (see @chenoweth.bsky.social)
www.bbc.com/future/artic...
Extract from the URL / PDF posted in the skeet: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-05/Erica%20Chenoweth_2020-005.pdf Summary The “3.5% rule” refers to the claim that no government has withstood a challenge of 3.5% of their population mobilized against it during a peak event. In this brief paper, I address some of the common questions I have received about the 3.5% rule, as well as several updates from more recent work on this topic. Four key takeaways are as follows: • The 3.5% figure is a descriptive statistic based on a sample of historical movements. It is not necessarily a prescriptive one, and no one can see the future. Trying to achieve the threshold without building a broader public constituency does not guarantee success in the future. • The 3.5% participation metric may be useful as a rule of thumb in most cases; however, other factors—momentum, organization, strategic leadership, and sustainability—are likely as important as large-scale participation in achieving movement success and are often precursors to achieving 3.5% participation. • New research suggests that one nonviolent movement, Bahrain in 2011-2014, appears to have decisively failed despite achieving over 6% popular participation at its peak. This suggests that there has been at least one exception to the 3.5% rule, and that the rule is a tendency, rather than a law. • Large peak participation size is associated with movement success. However, most mass nonviolent movements that have succeeded have done so even without achieving 3.5% popular participation.
3/ Though regime change can occur w/as little as 3.5% of the population, these movements must also have...
"momentum, organization, strategic leadership, and sustainability"
--> Get out on the streets AGAIN & AGAIN, every weekend, every opportunity...
www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/defaul...
White woman with shoulder-length platinum hair, carrying a "Hands Off Immigrants" sign, mouth wide open in surprise & joy
People carrying "Christians for Ceasefire" banner & Hands Off Palestine / Stop Arming Israel" sogns
People in large Chicago march carrying a "Protect RP" banner with a monarch butterfly on it. Protect RP is a neighborhood ICE watch group.
Woman from the back wearing a red T-shirt that says "Jews Say Stop Arming Israel."
The first is my joyful midchant face when I see my photographer friend Michael Bracey at Chicago's Hands Off march (April 5). The rest are favorite images of other marchers.
#handsoff
This!
Wow! GO TEAM!
💙 DC never disappoints. #handsoff
Just a kid living out his dream
She shouldn’t have to be out in the Kansas City cold, worried about her financial future.
#HandsOff #KansasCity
Massive #HandsOff turn-out in Colorado. I was so overcome with emotion that I just spontaneously started crying... and then laughing. Overwhelmed with gratitude for the sense of solidarity -- here & throughout the nation. Here are just a few of my favorite signs.
A crowd of protesters in raincoats gathers under umbrellas, holding signs advocating for democracy and civil rights in a rainy urban setting. Ukraine flag in the background.
Louisville, Kentucky #3E #Handsoff #FiftyFiftyOne
📷 @bantaart.bsky.social
Absolutely.
A massive crowd of protesters gathers in a public area, holding colorful signs advocating for democracy and social justice.
Portland, Oregon #3E #Handsoff #FiftyFiftyOne
📷 @climatebrad.hillheat.com
My favorite sign today: “Old? Pissed off? Welcome to Grantifa!” held by an old guy
This is great! 😂
“Today’s topic could be about fury or madness, sadness or loss, stress & distress, but I’d like to lean into hope. Because even in the darkness, even as the evidence of destruction mounts…this insane chapter is neither monolithic nor will it be never-ending.” www.americaamerica.news/p/what-does-...
They want us to be silent. But we won’t be.
Because we know there’s no cavalry coming.
We are the cavalry.
And we’ll fight in the courts, in the streets and in our communities—because our kids, our jobs and our futures are worth fighting for.
#HandsOff
Unknown numbers of Ukrainians received emails by mistake from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security saying their humanitarian protected status was being revoked and they would have to leave the United States within days, the agency said Friday.
If your NC vote has been challenged, the appeals court has triggered a 15-day "curing" period. It is imperative that you contact your local Board of Elections or legal representation for the next steps.
The NC GOP is openly trying to steal their state's Supreme Court. Do not let them.
Thanks @stevevladeck.bsky.social for the cite to Abu Ali c. Ashcroft…sounds familiar (the Bush admin brought this guy back)
if Kristin Noem can coordinate a media stunt at the prison he is at then they can get him released.
Why cuts to @ILAB_DOL are a horrible idea....by Fairtrade America, the International Cocoa Initiative and The Rainforest Alliance.... #ChildLabor @alt-dol.altgov.info @theameilee.bsky.social
cocoaradar.com/us-cuts-to-c...
DNC chair Ken Martin just announced he's creating a "People's Cabinet." Just happens to be 11 days after Michael Tomasky wrote a column suggesting that they do this!
newrepublic.com/article/1930...
I kind of want to go
Here’s a tally of the stock market damage: cnb.cx/3EgjVI4
In an appearance on Fox Business Friday, Senator Ron Johnson said, "I’m getting all kinds of reactions from businesses, farmers in Wisconsin that are highly concerned about what’s happening."
A DOGE operative at the Department of Veterans Affairs appears to be trying to use an AI tool to write code for the agency's systems, among other proposals.
Tomorrow, #April5, we're taking to the streets nationwide to say #HandsOff! We will not let these billionaires illegally gut the federal government and take away the protections and benefits Americans have worked so hard for.
Find an event near you: www.mobilize.us/handsoff
