The polling industry has collectively created a behemoth when it comes to 'cost of living' in issues tracking. This from Electoral Calculus demonstrates the need to unpack the issue.
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
New Senedd polling shows Labour in the lead but with Reform and Plaid close behind.
LAB 27%
REF 24%
PC 24%
CON 15%
LD 5%
GRE 5%
OTH 1%
F/w 10th March - 3rd April.
@jackpeacock1.bsky.social explores the findings here: www.survation.com/senedd-polli...
Ahead of the spring statement, @jackpeacock1.bsky.social looks at how the public understands the economy and their views on economic growth as an indicator of performance. We find just 54% of people believe they personally gain when the UK economy is growing.
www.survation.com/the-chancell...
The two 'soft ends' of Labour's coalition are Reform curious voters on right, Green curious voters on left.
Looking at their values, they're relatively far apart on culture but united on economics.
Reform curious Lab voters are also notably more left-wing economically than wider Reform vote.
Latest from me with a focus on fragmentation and economic pessimism. Voters’ expectations for delivery are through the floor, yet they don't believe anyone else would necessarily fare better.
How left- or right-wing is each MP?
New data by @chanret.bsky.social and @vlazarov.bsky.social in partnership with Survation and @ukandeu.bsky.social reveals the (economic) left-right positions of individual MPs.
www.survation.com/how-left-or-...
Worth drawing attention to the table in this piece - it is absolutely the case Labour faces a 2nd placed Reform in 89 seats but in most of those they are a long way behind Labour, and still behind Labour if you give them all the Conservative vote in those seats as well.
Labour is betting on long-term delivery to rebuild trust. Focusing on delivery is the correct approach, but Labour needs to find a narrative. 8/8
Labour has prioritised making what they consider difficult decisions early in their tenure, a strategy that at times appeared as if they were intentionally courting unpopularity - and it has yielded results. Labour is now the most disliked major party in Britain. 7/8
Trust in Labour is fragile. They lead on 10 of 16 key issues, including the NHS (+7%) and cost of living (+2%), but their leads are slim compared to their time in opposition. Reform has no lead on any issue, suggesting it has some way to go before it becomes a credible governing alternative. 6/8
On the NHS, initial optimism has collapsed. In July, a plurality believed NHS outcomes would improve over the next five years. Six months later, pessimism dominates, with 57% of Conservatives and the majority of Reform voters now expressing low confidence. 5/8
Confidence in Labour’s handling of key issues is negative across the board. Immigration (-26%) and refugees/asylum (-29%) are the worst-rated areas, with discontent cutting across partisan lines. Even Labour voters lack confidence here. 4/8
Immigration is the defining issue for Reform. 38% of their voters rank it as their top concern, compared to just 25% of Conservatives. This outsized focus highlights Reform’s growing role in shaping the narrative on the right. 3/8
Reform finished second in 98 seats in July, 89 of which were Labour wins. But Reform currently poses a bigger challenge to the Conservatives than to Labour. 2024 Conservative voters are twice as likely as Labour voters to now plan to vote for Reform. 2/8
Labour’s vote share has fallen 4 points since the election, while the Conservatives have inched up 1 point. The biggest winner? Reform UK, whose vote share has surged by 6 points, capitalising on dissatisfaction on the right. 1/8
