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Csaba G. Tóth

@tothgcsaba

Demographer and economist. population dynamics | mortality | population ageing | fertility | public policy https://sites.google.com/view/tothgcs

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18.11.2024
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Latest posts by Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba

Már csak 9,5 millióan vagyunk. De hány magyar él majd Magyarországon 2050-ben?
Már csak 9,5 millióan vagyunk. De hány magyar él majd Magyarországon 2050-ben? YouTube video by HVG Videó

A longer interview with me about Hungary’s demographic prospects— particularly for those who understand Hungarian, or simply enjoy the melody of the language.
#demograph #population #Hungary
youtu.be/gidRUKZrCl4?...

05.03.2026 08:50 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Even with the “magical” 2.1 fertility rate, Hungary’s population would fall from 9.6M to 8.6M by 2050 (assuming unchanged life expectancy and zero migration). Why? Age structure: too few couples are in their reproductive ages.
#demography #population #Hungary #fertility

04.03.2026 19:59 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The sex ratio at birth varies markedly across regions, most notably in Asia, where fertility policies combined with son preference have distorted the natural balance.
#demography #fertility #Asia #Europe #population

25.02.2026 06:14 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Up to one-fifth of the population has been lost to net migration, the balance of immigration and emigration, in some newer EU member states over three decades. The Baltic countries and parts of the Balkans have been particularly hard hit.
Source: doi.org/10.1111/padr...
#demography #migration

18.02.2026 18:57 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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While housing poverty affects some 2-3 million people in Hungary, 12.5 % of the total housing stock was vacant. It means that more than 570,000 dwellings were unoccupied.
#demography #Hungary #poverty #housing
Source: www.habitat.org/emea/newsroo...

14.02.2026 21:48 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1
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While most European populations have continued to age, Germany has seen a modest but steady decline in its median age. Immigration may be one of the key drivers.
#demography #Germany #France #population #Ageing

13.02.2026 13:56 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Life expectancy growth in Hungary has clearly slowed. Gains in the past decade were just one-third of those achieved in the previous decade. The deceleration was stronger among women, leading to a narrowing gender gap.
#demography #Hungary #population #ageing

11.02.2026 21:04 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Births from in vitro fertilization (IVF) now account for 4% of all births in Hungary. That is more than 3,000 babies.
#demography #population #fertilty #maternity #Hungary

11.02.2026 08:58 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Fertility rates in Poland have fallen in villages and cities alike. The long-term rural–urban convergence is remarkable.
#demography #population #fertility #Poland #Cities

06.02.2026 21:36 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Hungary’s population fell to 9.49 million by January 1, 2026, the same level observed in 1952.
#demography #population #Hungary

02.02.2026 21:33 👍 4 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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Hungary’s fertility rate fell from 1.51 to 1.31 in just two years. Births dropped sharply: from 85,000 in 2023 to 72,000 in 2025.
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary

30.01.2026 11:16 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1
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Child and youth psychiatric care in Hungary has doubled since 2011. Three factors may have contributed: (1) rising mental-health needs, (2) improved monitoring and diagnosis, and (3) greater use of specialist care.
#Hungary #children #MentalHealthMatters

27.01.2026 16:38 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Births in Budapest declined sharply by nearly 25% over the past two years in the January–September period, far exceeding the already large 16% decline at the national level in Hungary.
#demography #fertility #Budapest #Hungary

17.01.2026 21:48 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Suicide rates in Hungary remain alarmingly high above age 50. At the oldest ages, mortality is nearly 1.5× higher than in any regional peer.
#demography #Hungary #Poland #Romania

10.01.2026 22:36 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

It's a mistake.

04.01.2026 14:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Ajaj, tényleg. Köszönöm!

04.01.2026 07:39 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Fathers tend to be 3–4 years older than mothers, a gap that has remained stable over the last decade in Hungary. Three decades ago, the average age at childbirth was about 26 for women and 29 for men; today it is roughly 31 and 34.
#demography #fertility #motherhood #Hungary

21.12.2025 20:04 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Modern Fertility Choice: Population Change, Fertility, & Mothers' Employment
Modern Fertility Choice: Population Change, Fertility, & Mothers' Employment YouTube video by hceconomics

An unforgettable moment discussing my research with James J. Heckman, Nobel Prize–winning economist, and Ronald Lee, co-author of the Lee–Carter model, a cornerstone of modern mortality forecasting.
#demography #fertility
youtu.be/KuhbmK98i38?...

19.12.2025 10:36 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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It is a great honor to present my current research on population change at the Mini Conference organized by the Center for the Economics of Human Development at the University of Chicago, under the leadership of Nobel laureate James Heckman @heckmanequation.bsky.social.
#demography

09.12.2025 09:27 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Births fluctuate, but over five decades fertility in the EU27 was remarkably similar: almost all countries had a total fertility rate between 1.5 and 1.9. Ireland was the exception, at 2.4.
#demography #fertility #EU27 #Ireland #Poland #Germany

03.12.2025 07:49 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

This is the correct link to my publication:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

28.11.2025 17:11 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Thrilled to see the population-change decomposition method I developed now applied in the @EBRD Transition Report 2025–26, Brave New World.😃😃
EBRD report: www.ebrd.com/home/news-an...
My publication: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pa…

28.11.2025 14:48 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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Hungary’s fertility rate fell to 1.31 in the first ten months of the year, down from 1.62 four years ago. Combined with a shrinking reproductive-age population, this meant 17 thousand fewer births than in 2021.
#demography #population #Hungary #fertility #maternity

27.11.2025 14:11 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 2
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Sex ratio at birth hit a new record last year in Hungary.
The number of newborn boys per 100 girls jumped above 107. While boys are the majority at birth, their share gradually declines, by the time people reach their 50s, women become the majority.
#demography #population #fertility #birth

25.11.2025 15:31 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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One in five people eligible to vote in next year’s Hungarian election was too young to vote in 2010. Nearly 2 million people have died since then, leading to a 20% turnover in the voting-age population between 2010 and 2026.
#demography #population #Hungary #Election2026

22.11.2025 19:54 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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The Baltic countries lost a quarter of their population between 1990 and 2020. While net migration was the main driver, below-replacement fertility reduced their populations by about one tenth.
Details: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
#demography #Population #Estonia #Lithuania #Latvia

19.11.2025 14:03 👍 11 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1
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The young age profile fully offset population losses from negative migration in Central and Eastern Europe between 1990 and 2020. Population Council just featured my Population and Development Review paper in a short summary!
#demography #migration #Poland
popcouncil.org/insight/driver…

07.11.2025 10:18 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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South Korea’s dramatic fertility decline over the past 25 years has been driven mainly by falling birth rates among women aged 25–29. Since 2012, fertility among those aged 30–34 has also dropped sharply.
#demography #fertility #SouthKorea #population

05.11.2025 19:29 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Yes, exactly! :)

29.10.2025 10:12 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The age pattern of divorce among men has flattened over the past 25 years. Around the millennium, the risk of divorce fell sharply with age; today in Hungary, it’s nearly the same from 25 to 55. The same pattern holds for women.
#demography #divorce #motherhood #Hungary #marriage

29.10.2025 09:57 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0