@chadskelton
Instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University in Vancouver, Canada. Data journalist. Nerd for hire: charts, maps, Tableau training. Past: Vancouver Sun he/him cskeltondata@gmail.com http://www.chadskelton.com/
So sorry. That sucks.
Curious about ChatGPT but don't know where to start? I'm running a two-hour workshop on how you can use AI tools in your day-to-day work on Sept. 25. www.eventbrite.ca/e/ai-worksho...
Huge loss for FVC/Overstory but congrats on the new Tyee gig Tyler! Thanks for all your hard work over the years mentoring KPU's students! 😀
My latest AI video: How to Create a ChatGPT Tutor Bot (and Quiz Bot!) for your students using Custom GPTs.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nerO...
One way to make AI do good things in education is to actively experiment in creating good things and share the results (whether they work or not) so others can build on those.
Mitigating bad outcomes are important, but good outcomes are not automatic either, and will take collective work.
Road for a majority for the Liberals is there, but it's slim.
There need to pick up 5 seats, and they're down by less than 400 votes in the following places:
- Vancouver Kingsway
- New West-Burnaby-Maillardville
- Nunavut
- Terrebonne
- Milton East-Halton Hills South
- Miramichi-Grand Lake
As I explored exhaustively this past Fall, late counted votes in B.C. provincial elections historically favour the left-leaning party and did so again in 2024. www.chadskelton.com/2024/10/how-...
I'm calling it a night but I see (at least) two possible scenarios in the final count:
1. The closest races are mainly ones where the Libs are leading. That means their seat count is more vulnerable.
2. If they count advance polls last and those tilt left, Libs could strengthen their position.
Now, having said all that, CBC's David Cochrane is saying on TV right now that they're pretty sure that straggling polls are mainly advance polls and special ballots which seem to tilt Liberal. And Lib (167) + NDP (7) margin has been inching up. So who knows...
@kevinmilligan.bsky.social has a nice spreadsheet of the closest races, and it shows how some of the tightest ones are Lib-Con where the Libs are leading. That's a fragile place to be. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Pro tip to a fellow nerd: If you have all results updating on a single webpage, =IMPORTHTML is your friend. (Though doesn't seem like Elections Canada has all ridings on a single page?) support.google.com/docs/answer/...
For the late-nighters, I made a google doc with the close outstanding races.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Just hand updating it so it's already like 30 mins out of date...
...but a lot of ridings could still flip.
In fairness, Liberals still have a few shots at turning a few blue seats red.
And a couple of other razor-thin Liberal margins in Metro Vancouver with a few polls left to count.
Wouldn't take much for the Liberals to lose their (razor thin) lead in Kelowna. Though only a handful of polls left to report.
And there seem to be at least a few B.C. seats where the tide is shifting against the Liberals in late vote count. bsky.app/profile/chad...
Lib (165) + NDP (7) has a razor thin 172-seat majority at the moment. I'd guess there's a good chance that won't hold. Significantly more of the Liberal seat count is 'leading' rather than elected compared to Conservatives. A decent risk Liberal count will go down before the night is over.
And just 7 minutes later, Conservative Ellis Ross has a strong lead. Early votes and late-counted votes must have come from very different areas.
Overall, Liberals did worse than expected based on the polls. But this post of mine from earlier today on my own riding aged pretty well. 😀
CBC site now saying Liberal Ernie Klassen is elected in South Surrey-White Rock. A flip from Conservative to Liberal.
Been keeping an eye on Skeena-Bulkley Valley (BC). Amazing how much the NDP's margin of victory has narrowed from earlier in the night. Shows how poorly early results can predict final count.
A cityscape at twilight, from the middle of a street.
1. Can you figure out where I was standing when I took this picture?
ChatGPT could. Given the photograph (scrubbed of all header information), the new chain of thought model, ChatGPT o.3, was able to pinpoint the location with a few meters.
"We denied the Liberals and NDP the chance to form a coalition government."
That's fundamentally untrue. They're literally at a combined 172 seats right now, which is enough for a majority.
(even though such an arrangement is unlikely)
Liberals + NDP + Green = 170 seats leading and elected
Conservatives + Bloc = 173 seats
Mark Carney looks set to be Prime Minister for a good while.
But at this moment, the unique math of this election could give the Bloc with a lot of leverage in the next parliament.
The path for the NDP to official party status is not looking great at the moment.
They need to pick up 4 more seats — but are only within 10% of the lead in 4 ridings total across the country.
And none of those are Jagmeet Singh, who is crashing.
They will need a lot of luck at this point.
Man, Kelowna really is a little red island in a sea of blue in the B.C. Interior.
Pierre Polievre being behind in his own riding of Carleton seemed like a fluke with only a few polls reporting. But we're now at 50/266 polls and he's still in second. And the margin ain't all that close. Still hard to see him losing but this seems closer than people were expecting.
And... Ernie's back in the lead.
Liberal Ernie Klassen has been consistently ahead in South Surrey-White Rock since counting began. But Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay just took the lead.