@briankerg
Writer | Atlantic Council Fellow | Military Writers Guild Board Member | Irregular Warfare Initiative alumnus| Naval Institute Editorial Board alumnus | Krulak Center alumnus | Pacific Forum alumnus | School of Advanced Warfighting alumnus | Views My Own
Taiwan is not engaging in "separatism". It isn't now, and never was, part of China. Taiwanese independence is not a fascist movement. It opposed the authoritarian KMT and Japanese colonialists, and has roots over a century old.
You are completely ignorant of Taiwan and its history.
Yesterday was the anniversary of the 2/28 Incident of 1947, and the following March massacre executed by the #KMT against the people of #Taiwan.
This excellent episode of the #FormosaFiles podcast discusses this tragic period through the eyes of George Kerr:
www.formosafiles.com/george-kerr-...
Remaining pages of the above article follow:
One more previous piece that is increasingly timely given #Iran's strikes and the limits of air #defense we are seeing play out in real time. The most reliable defense against fires is earth. #SouthKorea and #Taiwan embraced this reality long ago. The #US and #Japan should as well. /1
Keeping on theme of implications for advanced bases, below is an old piece I wrote on the risk assumed for families who get stationed in the First Island Chain.
If families within Iran's WEZ are at risk, families within China's WEZ are at even greater risk.
www.mca-marines.org/wp-content/u...
Given the recent hits to US facilities, the below article is particularly prescient.
In this month's issue of the #Marine Corps Gazette, Bobby Fowler writes about the potential role of Military Police in providing base #defense against modern threats.
Zing!
Who keeps letting Douhet attend the National Security Council meetings?!?
💯
-People tend to fight when you start bombing them. Taiwan will fight if the PRC attacks. Invading Taiwan would be a Herculean feat.
-A Taiwan contingency will inherently impose war threshold crossing costs on Japan, and they will fight. Hence Takaichi's reference to STS, and Xi's consequent ire.
The perception that Xi and CCP might go for it, rather than the reality of doing it, is itself a powerful form of coercion that can help achieve their dream of national rejuvenation without having to risk annihilation.
Absolutely. Xi and CCP behavior trends toward getting as much as you can with minimal risk to the regime. There are many more ways to achieve their goals through other forms of pressure, applied over time and with patience. Risking regime survival is an in extremis option.
This would require:
-Overwhelming air and maritime superiority
-Massive amphibious lift
-The ability to establish, expand, stabilize, and break out of a lodgment
-Uninterrupted force flow across the strait
-And many other things the PLA cannot provide
Xi won't do it because he can't.
My latest in @usniproceedings.bsky.social:
"Gorilla dust can be dazzling to see and satisfying to throw—but it often does little, if any, good... judgment and moral courage must be ruthlessly applied... fighting the instinct to take a rash action now that will rarely solve the real problem."
This season of 'Black Mirror' keeps pushing the limits:
'An open letter to Secretary Hegseth', authored by an active duty #Marine lieutenant colonel currently serving in a military fellowship at Yale:
yaledailynews.com/articles/an-...
Does this mean we're reverting to another Charlie Wilson's War?
www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblo...
For those already going through international sports withdrawals, be advised: 'Best of the Best' is streaming free on Tubi.
You're welcome.
Required reading for those jumping into #TaiwanSky discourse:
One step away from using humans as batteries a la 'The Matrix'.
When you use 'The Price is Right' as your retention tool...
The First, Second, and Third Taiwan Strait Crises show what today’s U.S. planners risk getting wrong. https://ow.ly/Q0Ct50Y9yG5
Conventional war and limited nuclear war simultaneously.
I.e., we have CFC and KPA forces engaged on the Pen, then folks start popping nukes off at decisive points.
Because it's a real possibility but it's a hard problem. So usually when exercises hit the nuke threshold we just endex or reset.
Critical hit:
Cherry cordial never ends the way you want it to.
I used to attempt engaging with certain restrainers, giving them the benefit of the doubt that they were arguing in good faith.
But reason can't compete with Koch Brothers funding.
The new Gadsden Flag is lit:
Also a great way to discourage some great officers not to remain in service.
He means those squirrels he was ranting about forever ago.
"I have killed many squirrels in this life. A few face to face. Many more with thunder from the skies and other machines of war.
I have always prayed for every squirrel soul lost."
