dilksy

Alisson pen save and CS coming later to finish me off.

🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️

GW26.

Alisson ➡️ Raya
Rogers ➡️ Dango
JP ➡️ Welbeck

(3/4)

Got off to a good start.

🌍 550K

Yeah, I’m with you. I’ll be happy with the decision either way.

Yep, will largely depend on what happens over the next two days (Spurs miracle at Anfield being the best outcome), but if things go by the odds script then it’s likely a late AM path for me.

I’m with Thomas on this one. I think Moyes AM was more than fine in your spot, WR. If I could have walked into it I might not have given other options much thought, but ultimately I’m glad I was forced to consider other paths. EVE win next week and maybe I’ll change my mind 😄

Thanks mate!

Happy with the outcome so far too.

Provided a little reasoning to Simon just now:

bsky.app/profile/dilk...

But seriously, I think especially in my spot (3 LIV, only 3 FTs after an early transfer, nothing ITB) it made sense and solved pretty well. And then regardless, there’s enough scenarios where it works out better than the AM path. JC also sold me on maintaining some flexibility. And, as ever, fun!

I don't actually think it's going to happen and looked OK if it doesn't, but if it does...oh baby!

🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️

GW24.

Triple Captain.

DCL ➡️ Ndiaye (1/4).

See you on the other side 🫡

🌍 754K

🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️

GW22.

Rolling (0/3)

Haven't gone anywhere since GW13. Stuck in this small, provincial town we call the 600Ks. Sick of the sight of this team. Got transfers, but can't do anything about it. Here we go again I guess.

🌍 650K (maybe I've always been here)

I guess you, probably not unfairly, believe that 'analytics' broadly isn't doing much adjusting? But then, as far as I'm concerned, we're still in our infancy and getting to grips with the tools and processes available. We should just absolutely be vigilant against complacency and our own biases.

without entirely abandoning thinking about the things we've been freed from. My position is basically that we should begin from and maintain a mathematical framework. Like with poker, you start from solver generated ranges and *then* learn how to adjust.

I'm completely with you that data shouldn't be all that we're shaped by and we can improve our frameworks, but I'm with Simon that the pen % issue feels more like an inability to think probabilistically. I still believe that we should think of data as 'freeing' us to think about other things, but

We will be there.

3) I don't accept that people have their own strategies and decisions in the way we often imagine. We're always already within a framework. Ultimately, only by accepting how malleable you are can you begin to understand what you should be shaped by. There are worse things to be shaped by than data.

Few things:

1) Short form is inadequate for this conversation so you should complete that article and then we should do a pod discussing it 😉

2) I want to emphasise that this shift in thinking is possible/necessary whether a person uses a model or is 'maximising xP' in their head or whatever.

He's smart for a fish.

I suppose so. We're always balancing these two, not distinct, 'modes of operation' lets call them, among all the other stuff, but I guess I do believe there should be a shift in which mode we prioritize at this point in the season because there's an even more extreme relationship with uncertainty.

We're calling this optimal now.

Think I sit on the side of this perhaps being the kind of xP you still want to maximise (depending on how many Liverpool you have/your 24/25 strategy).

'Rather than trying to maximise points, you're trying to maximise the amount of flexibility that you have at times when information becomes available' - @trout-post.com

🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️

Rollin'

New Year, New me trying to actually bank some transfers.

🌍 545K

OK. I do have to hold my hands up and say I wish I’d been less fixated on WC6.

Anyone can chuck a wildcard together 🙄

🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️

GW18.

Saka ➡️ Øde
Solanke ➡️ Isak

Games a bit dull at the moment as multiple factors force a convergence of teams, but who cares? It's Christmas and I wish you all the merriest of seasons!

🌍 520K

I have to remember to get the bloody screenshots before deadline 😄

All we should want for Christmas is more bench points.

Doesn’t hit the same when you wait until I’m toppled by negative variance.