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Andrew Winner

@acwinner

Adjunct Professor, SAIS Europe, Johns Hopkins University Professor Emeritus, U.S. Naval War College Views are mine own. Umarell in training.

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Latest posts by Andrew Winner @acwinner

One would think. I would like. I highly doubt.

06.03.2026 16:07 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

Exclusive: Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating β€” even indirectly β€” in the war.

06.03.2026 12:30 πŸ‘ 564 πŸ” 286 πŸ’¬ 82 πŸ“Œ 112

media.defense.gov/2026/Feb/27/...

03.03.2026 15:36 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This university is one of the "potential new partner institutions" that Secretary Hegseth has directed for senior military officers to attend for certain graduate school education and fellowships instead of the Ivies and a number of other universities. He characterized the new list as "elite."

03.03.2026 15:36 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

CENTCOM X post talked about targeting Iranian submarines as well.

01.03.2026 21:21 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

02134! Send it to Zoom!

22.02.2026 22:50 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Super quick look: not been ignored and experts have been discussing/publishing on, this issue for years now. Only one example: Big Data and Armed Conflict: Legal Issues Above and Below the Armed Conflict Threshold, Laura A. Dickinson (ed.), Edward W. Berg (ed.) 2023, Oxford U Press

20.02.2026 14:09 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

On obligation of differentiation, I will let the law of armed conflict experts weigh in. From my reading over the past two plus years, it is a β€œyes, but” or β€œyes, and” situation with lots of discretion for the commander in weighing tradeoffs and interpreting information. Again, not an expert.

20.02.2026 12:55 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Many things here on which I am not at all an expert. Genuine ?: Are or will many data centers be inherently dual-use (used by/for civilian and military purposes)? If so, then the framing is perhaps more neutral than yours β€” no one is necessarily β€œhiding” something. It is simply how things are.

20.02.2026 12:55 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

As more governments use AI as parts of intelligence and policy, how are data centers not part of a country’s C4I infrastructure and therefore a rational and potential military target, depending on one’s policy aims in using force?

20.02.2026 12:01 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Bluff or Death? How to Assess Nuclear β€œThreats” In turbulent times, the less precise our nuclear discourse, the more fear nuclear manipulators can elicit.

We @apln.network are pleased to partner with
@carnegieendowment.org & Nautilus Institute on new paper series exploring dynamics around nuclear signaling and threats. The launch discussion for the first of these is Tues Feb 10 at 0900 EST - sign up today! carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/...

03.02.2026 21:44 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Some eye-popping cost estimates for the battleship, courtesy of Eric Labs of the Congressional Budget Office. 1 BBG could buy up to 7 DDGs (which, btw is 128 VLS cells and 12 CPS cells vs 672 VLS cells). In the words of the immortal Ron O’Rourke, which came first: the program or the analysis?

15.01.2026 21:40 πŸ‘ 116 πŸ” 25 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 14

Do we have a sense of how β€œnearby” the Russian vessels were? They would have limited options to intervene, especially at a distance, unless they wanted to fire at a US CG ship or SOF helo.

07.01.2026 13:27 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Front pages of American newspapers after Jan. 6, 2021, with headlines like "Capitol Chaos," "Assault on Democracy," "Pro-Trump mob storms Capitol."

Front pages of American newspapers after Jan. 6, 2021, with headlines like "Capitol Chaos," "Assault on Democracy," "Pro-Trump mob storms Capitol."

Five years ago.

06.01.2026 03:24 πŸ‘ 5878 πŸ” 3444 πŸ’¬ 107 πŸ“Œ 282

USG will want to seize the tankers (with low risk), although they could choose to stop them by disabling fire first. Seizure would likely require some "high demand; low density" assets or capabilities such as VBSS (visit, board, search, seizure) teams (USN, USCG, SOF). So some limits might exist.

05.01.2026 14:51 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

*6-3
So this was a HUGE question mark, and it’s fascinating that they decided this way.
The statute (32 USC 12406) at its inception MUST have meant the regular armed forces (as few/none of the other forces existed at the time, and it was about making the NG a federal reserve component of the Army)..

23.12.2025 21:04 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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a poster for ferris bueller 's day off features three people in a red car ALT: a poster for ferris bueller 's day off features three people in a red car
08.12.2025 04:55 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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a large aircraft carrier is floating in the ocean . ALT: a large aircraft carrier is floating in the ocean .
07.12.2025 10:45 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Research Assistant (War Studies) at King's College London Discover an exciting academic career path as a Research Assistant (War Studies) at jobs.ac.uk. Don't miss out on this job opportunity - apply today!

Research Assistant (War Studies)
King's College London - School of Security Studies School Office #skystorians πŸ—ƒοΈwww.jobs.ac.uk/job/DPK464/r...

18.11.2025 06:39 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier to the Caribbean The move would be a major escalation of the Trump administration’s military campaign to target drug smugglers and threaten governments in Latin America.

Signs mounting that U.S. plans to bomb Venezuela, ostensibly with the goal of toppling the regime. Unfortunately the track record of this kind of campaign is uniformly poor. A short thread. 1/8
www.wsj.com/world/americ...

27.10.2025 18:55 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Must read thread by the best person to read on these issues!

06.10.2025 12:39 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

More information is being released about Epstein by the House? And the discharge petition might have enough votes very soon?

27.09.2025 18:12 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Nuclear Deterrence Fellow (PostDoc) in Leicester | University of Leicester Recruitment Team View details and apply for this Nuclear Deterrence Fellow (PostDoc) vacancy in Leicester. The University of Leicester is proud to be part of the UK Nuclear Deterrence Network, a collaborative initia...

jobs.le.ac.uk/vacancies/11...

01.09.2025 13:42 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3

Thank you Anna! So critical to have this, in detail, on the public record while it is happening.

31.08.2025 18:43 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes!

27.08.2025 20:02 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Looking forward to reading this one!

31.07.2025 11:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Details - Assistant or Associate Professor, Global and Public Affairs - Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs | University of Denver

The @josefkorbelschool.bsky.social is searching for a tenure line position in Technology and Global Affairs at the Assistant or Associate level. I am chairing the committee and happy to talk with anyone who is interested. Please share!
jobs.du.edu/en-us/job/49...

28.07.2025 14:58 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

Thank you Anna!

16.07.2025 21:22 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Awful in so many ways from the personal for these people who committed their lives and careers to serve the US and its citizens to the loss of expertise and knowledge on complex issues that the US needs to know and lead in to protect its own interests.

12.07.2025 20:27 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Looking forward to reading this (and assigning chapters for my fall class)! Listen to the podcast; www.hoover.org/publications..., and buy the book!

08.07.2025 12:05 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0