In Apr 2024, 49% of Repubs said "limiting the power & influence of Iran" should be a top long-range priority for the US (Pew); and in Sept 2024 only 22% of Repubs strongly supported military action (YouGov). And the Trump campaign ran against it. Now suddenly, 84% support the war.
We're "re-obliterating" Iran at land and sea, but it's "not a war"! And when Trump thinks that the undeclared goals of the non-war have been achieved, then Iran will have "surrendered unconditionally" to whatever we are doing, but it's definitely not a war. Am I getting that right?
A picture of PEW poll on global attitude survey, saying the % who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as good vs bad, where the US has the worst rankings and Canada the best
Americans: we live in a fallen state—embroiled by sin, cheating, lying, and evil. You cannot trust anyone, not even those who claim to know you best
Canadians: I love my neighbors and my friends!
New post: Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? (No. No it can't. Come on, now.)
davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/can-ai-rep...
We are not at war!
Tariffs are not a tax!
ICE only deports killers!
We’ve slashed spending!
There’s no affordability crisis!
American manufacturing is back!
Farmers are doing better than ever!
Am I missing any?
🎯
A US submarine sinking a lonely, dinky Iranian surface ship an ocean away from the theater of the main conflict—and 9000
miles from North America—makes it pretty clear the US is fighting a general war, without the declaration required by the Constitution. www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
“.. Federal prosecutors have put together possible corruption and money laundering charges ..”
@reuters.com 🇻🇪
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
For years on my old blog I published the names of servicemembers who died in Iraq & Afghanistan. No other outlets were.
These are the first 4 Americans to die in the Iran War.
Capt. Cody A. Khork, 35
Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, 42
Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor, 39
Sgt. Declan J. Coady, 20
The war's limited objectives:
-Destroy nuclear program
-Degrade ballistic missile capabilities
-Bring the armies of the world together to fight at the End Times and bring about the return of Christ
Just arrived: MAKING A CAREER IN DICTATORSHIP.
Featuring original visualizations throughout, the book reconstructs an entire military organization using career data from 15k officers.
A deep dive into how the security apparatus in autocracies really works.
Excited to finally hold it in my hands.
tomorrow is with one of the biggest election days of the year. there's so much to go over it's hard to know where to start.
so, let me help:
here are the *10* elections i'm watching the most closely, *at the state and local level* (=no federal elections included!)
🧵:
💥“No president in the modern era has ordered more military strikes against as many different countries as Trump. He's attacked 7 nations, 3 of which — Iran, Nigeria & Venezuela — had never been targeted by US strikes. He authorized more individual air strikes in 2025 than Biden did in 4 years.”💥
A line graph showing NSF grant awards made through 2/27/26 for fiscal year 2026 compared with grant awards for fiscal years 2021-2025.
NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26)
Directorates to follow
1/10
Hell of a chart, this, from @financialtimes.com. Spot the JCPOA.
on.ft.com/4kSuQYO
That's right. Worse than Pointless
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/o...
The UAE have become a major transshipment hub for Western goods going to Russia. Chart shows UAE exports to Kyrgyzstan, which obviously never go there but head straight to Moscow. All these transshipments now come to a crashing halt. One positive upside...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-big-ar...
resources have been diverted away from terror prevention; Americans has been distracted by fiction and chaos; and potential attackers have been encouraged"
"the present government invites a terror attack. Most of the people directing the relevant agencies are incompetent; the next few layers down have been purged in culture wars; much the remaining personnel have resigned, been fired, or are demoralized..."
It’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.
Critics (like myself) are ignoring how Trump is gradually picking off Russian allies & clients: Syria, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba...and working on prying away India.
Gotta wonder about the discussions going on in Pyongyang this weekend!
True that Congress hasn't declared war since WWII, but at least presidents would ask permission (via an authorization of the use of military force, or AUMF) before major military operations
It may not feel like it but it is actually a big deal that Trump has now twice skipped even that cursory step
They are clearly already used to it and seem to have no problems with it.
There has been no (significant) resistance to
- illegal deployment on U.S. soil
- extrajudicial killings in Caribbean
- illegal capture of leader of foreign country
I fear a coming wave of antisemitism. Israel, Kushner, Witkoff (perhaps Miller) can all be portrayed by the neo-Nazi movement "the Jews manipulated Trump into this." Especially if this war goes terribly wrong.
This is the likeliest and costliest and bloodiest outcome in Iran with this level of military effort, even if the Pentagon does say its logistics and munitions can sustain no more than a 10-day war.
My line on BBCr4 Today on the Iran strikes was this. Last June there were intensive US/Iran talks under way. Aborted by Israeli strikes on Iran which US joined. I think this is similar. The US-Iran-Oman talks seemed to be going well. Netanyahu preempted, and Trump felt he had to follow 1/5
First impression: This is regime change, lots of ways for it to go wrong, a few it could go right, but at huge risk:
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
Congress rejected massive cuts to US science budgets for 2026, but much of the money still isn’t flowing to researchers.
The culprit? The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is quietly slow-walking the release of funds. 🧵👇
This draft Trump EO on voting is even nuttier than you imagined. Zeroing out all voter rolls and making everyone re-register in person. Mandatory annual online re-registration. Requiring anyone casting an absentee ballot to find a notary. No dropboxes. All post-election disputes federalized. 😟
