I'm very excited to see our paper on group appeals finally formatted and published online with the JoP! www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
06.03.2026 07:37
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I'm very excited to see our paper on group appeals finally formatted and published online with the JoP! www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
(It doesn't matter if you did everything to please him. It doesn't matter if you're his daughter, or his wife. It doesn't matter if you're dead. It doesn't matter if you're a child.)
Humiliating women is the single* thing Trump has been 100% consistent, 100% reliable throughout his life and career.
*okay, maybe one of the two things.
how are you integrating the endless promises of AI in your productivity workflow
Two-party system update
Reform UK 23% (-1)
GRN 21% (+4)
LAB 16%(-2)
CON 16%(-2)
LDEM 14%
news.sky.com/story/greens...
🚨 New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
We usually think that social identities precede preferences
We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences
Focus: class identity in 🇬🇧 + Christian identity in 🇮🇹
Sounds like a job for Sue Gray
Farewell.
They want January 6 in Britain. They're actively rooting for it.
![Notable examples
Some examples of settings, groups, and eras where purity spirals have occurred:[1][2]
Khmer Rouge
Cultural Revolution, Red Guards and mass denunciations
French Revolution
Instagram knitting circles[4]
Moscow trials[6]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cyyd366g3hrxp5rynixm2mm3/bafkreifnyhg2vrzdcgtcyyfvzqka63o5cjdimqnhw3aa4dpqpjfmuj2sbe@jpeg)
Notable examples Some examples of settings, groups, and eras where purity spirals have occurred:[1][2] Khmer Rouge Cultural Revolution, Red Guards and mass denunciations French Revolution Instagram knitting circles[4] Moscow trials[6]
I don't want to give too much credit to European media environments, which have their fair share of illiberalism, but imho the UK is kind of unique in how its radical right parties are effectively outgrowths of pre-existing radical right media, as opposed to the other way around.
UK media have primed voter with the sort of illiberal politics - attacks on courts, electoral integrity, human rights, freedom of association, right to protest - that radical right parties took decades to normalise elsewhere. When Reform UK gets a majority, backsliding will be a walk in the park.
A (comparative) word of caution on rushing to see in the Greens' rise the mirror image of Reform UK's.
Radical Right > largest Mainstream Right in 🇦🇹🇨🇿🇫🇷🇮🇹🇵🇱🇳🇱🇷🇴🇨🇭🇸🇪
Greens > Mainstream Left in... err, nowhere I can think of, in Europe.
Within-bloc realignment on the Right is much larger than on the Left.
Not sure what to make of this specific story, but democratic backsliding in Greece - at the hand of a manifestly pro-European, centre-right "mainstream" government - has proceeded very much under the radar. Not all threats to democracy come with Orbánist bluster.
www.politico.eu/article/gree...
An official letter from the Kansas Division of Vehicles dated February 23, 2026, with a redacted recipient address. The letter notifies the recipient that due to the enactment of Senate Bill 244, all Kansas driver's licenses and IDs must reflect the holder's sex at birth. It states that the recipient's current credential will become invalid immediately upon the law's publication on February 26, 2026, with no grace period. The recipient is directed to surrender their current ID to receive a new one matching their sex assigned at birth. The document concludes with instructions on how to appeal the notice if received in error, along with contact information for the department.
Kansas is sending letters to trans people telling them that their licenses will be revoked as of tomorrow and that they risk arrest for driving on a suspended license.
This is pure cruelty.
www.erininthemorning.com/p/kansas-sen...
It's not just FPTP that can't accommodate the emerging 5-to-6 party system in Britain. Scotland's MMP system could see the SNP win a single-party majority with barely a third of the vote in the proportional tier, thanks to anti-Reform coordination in the SMD tier. www.scotsman.com/news/politic...
In a new pre-print, @fraraffaelli.bsky.social and I ask: what are the effects of anti-immigration appeals that portray migrants as a threat to a native group (e.g. the working class or Christians)?
TL;DR: people change their *identity* to back up their attitudes to migrants.
osf.io/preprints/so...
NEW: The fifth year of Russia’s invasion is not beginning well for Moscow. Recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield disprove Russian claims that things can only get worse for Ukraine the longer Kyiv delays surrendering to Russian demands.
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar022426
Next time you doubt you are the right person for a job, remember: Chupa Chups make toothpaste.
Slava Ukraini.
Why do I have to pretend that I'm going to print something in order to save it as a PDF. Why do I have to engage in a little ruse.
Our focus on elite depravity shouldn’t distract us from the extent of mass public-level moral decay. There’s an army of little Kristi Noems out there.
This suggests that these "identity spillovers" are instrumental: people pick certain identities for themselves to justify their immigration attitudes.
In sum, the politics of immigration isn't just displacing old social identities: it's changing what things like class and religion mean to people.
Our finding: ‘treated’ nativists claim working-class/Christian identities to a larger extent. (In the UK, pro-immigration people also dis-identified from the working class.)
The effect is driven by middle-class Brits and non-churchgoing Italians, and didn't translate into changes on policy views.
We ran two survey experiments: one in Britain (on class identity) and one in Italy (on Christian identity).
We exposed people to real politicians' quotes on the working class or Christianity being under threat, but only the treatment group got primed with the idea that immigrants are the threat.
In a new pre-print, @fraraffaelli.bsky.social and I ask: what are the effects of anti-immigration appeals that portray migrants as a threat to a native group (e.g. the working class or Christians)?
TL;DR: people change their *identity* to back up their attitudes to migrants.
osf.io/preprints/so...
Ok, I have work to do now, I'm sorry I can't continue this extremely interesting conversation with you. Someone on the internet said something you disagree with, it's not the end of the world. Have a nice day.
I think that the citation is Korpi and Palme (1998). Another way of saying this is: VAT in Nordic countries is 25% - that's not taxes on the rich.
The realignment of British politics is mostly about culture. But there's an economic push factor too: 14 years of conservatism have made being middle-income in Britain a miserable experience. Those on the left should not be ashamed to embrace these people.
...better public services need the median taxpayer to pay more, and they must get something back. If some these rewards are regressive (affordable university, higher income caps on benefits, subsidised trains), so be it. With some caution, it can be good policy *and* good politics.