Roberta Maggi

Pleased to have worked on this timely research for @chathamhouse.org. This is a critical moment for #Haiti - one that comes with several challenges as well as immense opportunity. Our three-year process roadmap outlines possible pathways to peace and meaningful reform, led by and for Haitians. Read⬇️

Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya Why an enhanced ‘economic track’ must be integrated into political negotiations

🚨 NEW @chathamhouse.org paper: Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya

Tim Eaton argues that efforts to restore stability in Libya have too often focused on power- and wealth-sharing among rival factions. 🧵

www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/esca...

Interested in international security and development programming?

@robertamaggi.bsky.social and I we have prepared an online course for the European Governance Lab on

🌍 SECURITY IN FRAGMENTED STATES: UNDERSTANDING AND RESPONDING TO HYBRID SECURITY CHALLENGES
eugovlab.com/courses/secu...

Grateful to @eddiemonkman.bsky.social for including my thoughts in his latest article on escalation and territorial control in #Sudan and at its border with #Libya. I focus on providing geopolitical nuance & historical contextualisation of current events & their impact on both countries' stability.

من يملك إرادة التغيير في ليبيا؟ المجلس الأطلسي يطرح مسارين للوصول إلى الانتخابات المجلس الأطلسي يقترح نهجا موقتا لدعم العملية السياسية التي ترعاها الأمم المتحدة في ليبيا.

أود أن أعبر عن خالص امتناني و جزيل الشكر والتقدير لصحيفة الوسط على مشاركتها لمقالي الذي كتبته مع الدكتور كريم مزران لصالح مركز @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
ولمن فاته الاطلاع على النسخة العربية، يمكنكم قراءتها عبر هذا الرابط 👈🏽 alwasat.ly/news/libya/4...

Mi-26s and T-62s: What Russia's military backing of Haftar means for Libya A sweeping display of arms and alliances in Benghazi reflects Khalifa Haftar’s effort to project statehood, Moscow’s deeper investment in Libya, and a shifting power balance that could reshape peace p...

#Russia is upgrading its military footprint in #Libya -
“The entity shift from Wagner to Africa Corps arguably makes this an opportunistic power grab, more so than projection” according to @robertamaggi.bsky.social interviewed by F. S. Schiavi

www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate.
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...

Beyond ceasefires: Reimagining stability and engagement in Libya With all major political institutions mired in crisis, a renewed approach to peace enforcement is pivotal to building stability.

Delighted to share the page with the phenomenal Karim Mezran for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social on current events in #Libya. We 🔎 on what clashes in Tripoli mean for peace prospects & the safety of 🇱🇾 citizens, & what the intl diplomatic community can do to prevent further violence. 👉 shorturl.at/wMRQe

Beyond ceasefires: Reimagining stability and engagement in Libya With all major political institutions mired in crisis, a renewed approach to peace enforcement is pivotal to building stability.

The assassination of Abdul Ghani al-Kikli and clashes in Tripoli that followed shattered illusions of stability in #Libya.

Karim Mezran & @robertamaggi.bsky.social outline what peace enforcement might look like in Libya’s current politico-security landscape. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menaso...

Thank you so much, dear Andrea, for sharing our piece. We hope you enjoyed the read and find the recommendations therein relevant 🙏

In Tripoli, A War on Militias Quickly Becomes a War of Militias A recent upsurge in violence in the Libyan capital portends a familiar and dangerous path for the war-torn country, and the urgent need for a political reset.

My latest for @mecouncil.bsky.social unpacks how a bid to rein in militias in #Tripoli unraveled into a war of militias, & what is now at stake.

International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.

HASSAN: What is habeas corpus?

NOEM: Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country

HASSAN: That's incorrect

How potential US migrant expulsions to Libya could feed into the country's criminal economy and instability On 7 May 2025, reports emerged that the US was preparing to deport irregular migrants to Libya. While no deportations had occurred as of mid-May, and the US government has neither confirmed nor denied...

Reports that the #US is seeking to send migrants to #Libya have raised big concerns on the risks of #HR violations and abuse.

In my new #GITOC brief, I detail those, & how #deportations could fuel Libya’s criminal economies and worsen political instability.

globalinitiative.net/analysis/how...

Today's perfect example of this:

Libya's parliament unironically meets to decide a new government claiming they're: Supporting protestors, and holding PM Dbeiba accountable for not handling militias with due process.

This will not end well

The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...

For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics.

It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.

emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...

Trump administration working on plan to move 1 million Palestinians to Libya Details are murky and no final agreement has been reached, but the plan is under serious enough consideration that the administration has discussed it with Libyan leadership.

BREAKING: The Trump administration is working on a plan to permanently relocate up to 1 million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya, five people with knowledge of the effort told NBC News.

Big demonstrations in Tripoli tonight for the government to fall, several ministers have resigned, protesters now reaching the prime minister's office...unfortunately there's no way around the other site to follow these events...

There is a power struggle ongoing right now in Libya amongst a despised, illegitimate, disconnected elite trying to play off mass frustration and desperation for change

The longer it goes without the UN taking control of the mediation space, the worse it'll get

Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare.

The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.

As reshuffling decrees are announced by the GNU/PM, it's important to remember that reform is more than mere de jure changes in chains of command.

A couple trends to watch in the coming days: dynamics around personnel (re)assignment within MoI and MoD, & the politics of power in institutions #Libya

Things in Libya are heating up as Ghneiwa, probably the most successful milita leader of Tripoli's cartel, was assassinated at a meeting advertised as calming recent tensions.

Now Dbeiba aligned forces will try and claim his territory as the MoI warns residents to stay home

Big night ahead

As POTUS heads to Saudi, the UAE, and Qatar next week for the first major foreign trip of his second term, lifting Syria sanctions should be at the top of his agenda -- doing so is the only way to position the Syrian people to be able to hold their govt accountable to deliver a Syria for all.

Informative on the Gaza foundation scheme, in equal parts illegal and incompetent.

• UAE nixed funding plea
• Plan would only feed 60% of Gaza, but Israel thinks emigration can solve that
• USA pressures UN to join, threatens fund cuts

@jacobmagid.bsky.social

www.timesofisrael.com/uae-rejects-...

Libya and Trump administration discussed sharing billions of dollars in frozen funds, sources say Envoy Massad Boulos purportedly held talks with Tripoli-based government about sharing billions of dollars in frozen Libyan state assets

This obviously requires verification, but here's a possible explanation for why greedy actors in Tripoli might be tempted to agree to taking the Trump admin's deportees even at the risk of being swept from power by the backlash this could cause.
www.middleeasteye.net/news/libya-a...

The Trump administration is reportedly planning to deport Laotian, Vietnamese, and Philippino individuals to Libya.

Not only are these individuals being denied due process, but they have zero ties to Libya and Libyan migration detention is infamous for extensive abuses.

Such an incredible and insightful piece - a must read. Congrats and thank you, Tarek!

The bear who came to tea: Russia, Libya and the Kremlin’s playbook for fragile states Russia’s re-entrenchment in Libya, Europe’s soft underbelly, offers profound lessons on how it exploits geopolitical instability—and how Europeans can push back…

My long read for @ecfr.eu and probably the publication im most proud of in all my years doing this.

A deep dive into how Russia retrenched in Libya, uses it to project power from Ukraine to the Sahel, and the many lessons Europe or other frontline states can learn from it

ecfr.eu/publication/...

Usually seeing a big problem would entail a "let me not make this worse" response but I guess common sense has left the chat in 2025

"My Fourth Time, We Drowned" is among the most haunting books I've read. @sallyhayd.bsky.social's work should become mandatory reading to contextualise just how damaging decisions like these can be to the *persons* concerned.
bsky.app/profile/sall...