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Felix Dwinger

@dwingerfelix

Postdoc at the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST), France • Autocratic Politics, Democratic Backsliding, Game Theory, Causal Inference • felixdwinger.com

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21.09.2023
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Latest posts by Felix Dwinger @dwingerfelix

I'm seeing commentary that a formal commitment to keep Ukr out of NATO *no longer* satisfies Pu. What?? It never would've. There's plenty of evidence Ru always aimed to control or absorb Ukr and replace Europe's security architecture w an arrangement allowing Ru to reassert domination over EEurope.

27.02.2026 14:11 👍 133 🔁 29 💬 4 📌 2

Oh wow, this is wonderful news. Congrats, Steven!

24.02.2026 23:23 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Considering everything the Trump administration is doing, this is not surprising. but still heartbreaking.

A slow return to business as usual with genocidal invaders, even as they continue murdering Ukrainians and destroying our country.

21.02.2026 14:13 👍 170 🔁 56 💬 14 📌 6
Preview
The market for marriage - Works in Progress Magazine It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possession of a good agricultural surplus, must be in want of a wife.

Humans exhibit an astonishing variety of marriage systems. Sometimes monogamous, other times polygamous, occasionally we even marry ghosts. The diversity can seem to defy any general explanation. In my new piece for Works in Progress, I write about the Darwinian logic behind it. 1/

19.02.2026 16:10 👍 17 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 0
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Oh, how the tables have turned.

Ukrainian soldiers will be instructing NATO troops now.

18.02.2026 14:47 👍 254 🔁 46 💬 11 📌 3
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They tried to silence him — he amplified the fallen.
Skeleton athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych joined Germany’s Athletes for Ukraine to launch “Athletes for Athletes,” raising funds for families of Ukrainian athletes killed by Russia — honored on his “Memory Helmet.”

17.02.2026 10:13 👍 124 🔁 32 💬 2 📌 1
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Ukraine has been under russian drone attacks for most of the night.

Russian cruise missiles are expected to enter our airspace in half an hour, bringing more death and destruction.

Again, we play this deadly lottery while the world watches.

17.02.2026 03:18 👍 376 🔁 136 💬 11 📌 7

Terrific scholars, impressive book!

16.02.2026 21:46 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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🇱🇹Happy Day of Restoration of the State of Lithuania, dear Lithuanians🫶🏻

🇬🇪🇱🇹I appreciate and deeply value your support for Georgian people!

This photo comes from late 80’s, protests were held for freedom from ussr

16.02.2026 07:38 👍 12 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 0
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February 7 — Traditional Saturday march on the 437th day of continuous protest.

📷 Levan Zazadze

#GeorgiaProtests

07.02.2026 19:44 👍 55 🔁 28 💬 1 📌 4

Please notice the flag of Sweden, because the regime lashed out at Sweden today. Protesters in Georgia always display flags of partner countries, and especially when they feature prominently in latest events / are targeted by the regime.

03.02.2026 19:29 👍 220 🔁 87 💬 6 📌 4
Preview
Introducing The Long Carve: What Deserves Your Four Thousand Weeks? A series about choosing and staying with one idea long enough for it to change you

After a short hiatus, Respect the Marble is back:

catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/introducin...

Introducing a new series The Long Carve:

about how to decide which ideas deserves our long-term writing attention,

& how we learn to keep writing when the outcome is unknown and uncertain.

🧵

03.02.2026 10:47 👍 35 🔁 11 💬 1 📌 0
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🇬🇪🇪🇺The fight for Georgia’s freedom, democracy and European future goes on!
Day 4️⃣3️⃣0️⃣

@protest24.bsky.social

31.01.2026 08:31 👍 22 🔁 17 💬 0 📌 1
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4 Black journalists have been kidnapped by the federal government

30.01.2026 18:45 👍 15192 🔁 8332 💬 206 📌 332

OSCE’s Moscow Mechanism invoked following concerns about implementation of international human rights obligations by the Georgian authorities.

Among those investigations will be using chemical weapon against its own people.
Much appreciated @OSCE

odihr.osce.org/news/odihr/661…

30.01.2026 09:34 👍 12 🔁 9 💬 0 📌 0
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio)
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio) YouTube video by Bruce Springsteen

I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. It’s dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

Stay free

28.01.2026 17:02 👍 97509 🔁 40900 💬 4302 📌 5366

On the weakness of state terror: once ppl internalize the regime's lawless brutality, that they are no safer in their homes than in the streets (& vice versa), and that their unwavering defiance is what confounds & disempowers the regime, they also realize they have nothing to lose but their fear.

25.01.2026 19:51 👍 1310 🔁 454 💬 18 📌 10
Preview
Rights groups warn SIDE arrest powers risk 'persecution and intimidation' - Buenos Aires Herald More than 20 NGOs said that the decree granting broad discretion to intelligence services could become ‘a tool for massive surveillance’

Largely unnoticed outside of Argentina, President Milei is planning a massive expansion of the intelligence service's powers – SIDE.

Among other things, agents would be allowed to arrest citizens.

I spoke with the Buenos Aires Herald about possible consequences and parallels to the country's past.

20.01.2026 09:48 👍 18 🔁 12 💬 0 📌 0

Trump is not a "mad king" and we shouldn't be calling him that. He didn't come to power because of inheritance or conquest, we as a country elected him. The "mad king" language leaves us off the hook when this is on us all, and we should own it.

19.01.2026 14:54 👍 141 🔁 29 💬 14 📌 3
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Georgians continue to protest despite the snow and freezing cold, and all the repressive laws that now lead to criminal cases and imprisonment for protesting on the pavement.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 417

18.01.2026 17:30 👍 55 🔁 25 💬 0 📌 1
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They don’t sleep so you can.

Ukrainian defenders are freezing on the front line tonight, staying awake and holding positions so cities behind them can keep living.

Our normal life exists only because someone is carrying the night for us. 🇺🇦

17.01.2026 10:44 👍 159 🔁 36 💬 1 📌 1
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And despite it all, this is Tehran 🇮🇷

10.01.2026 23:40 👍 7897 🔁 2112 💬 126 📌 94
Research fellow (m/f/d) in the field of “contentious politics/political violence/autocratic politics” - Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

🚨Job alert! 🚨

I'm advertising a PhD position (66%) in Comparative Politics at HU Berlin. Ideal candidates combine a research interest in autocratic politics, conflict, and/or political violence with strong quantitative methods skills.

⏳ 4 (+2) years | 🗓 DL 16.01; Start March/April 26

More info:

06.01.2026 11:17 👍 46 🔁 48 💬 0 📌 3

I asked some protesters about their projects, hoping to find some funding for them, & they responded that it’s hard to think of projects when they have no money for basic food or transportation.

That’s where we’re at, while our partners STILL search for ways to “channel.”

#GeorgiaProtests Day 405

06.01.2026 17:51 👍 62 🔁 24 💬 2 📌 0
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It's wild that the PM of a NATO member feels compelled to put out a statement like this vis-à-vis the US government.

04.01.2026 20:23 👍 3341 🔁 1190 💬 59 📌 101
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First protest march of 2026 in Tbilisi.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 402

03.01.2026 16:22 👍 37 🔁 18 💬 0 📌 2
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It’s freezing cold, and it’s snowing in Tbilisi. But protesters are still on Rustaveli on January 1st, some of them singing Georgian folk songs.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 4000

01.01.2026 18:15 👍 109 🔁 45 💬 2 📌 1
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An article from December 1996 warns that Bulgaria has no chance of joining Europe and the euro would replace the lev only after the second coming of Christ. Brace yourselves, the euro replaces the lev tonight at midnight! 🤣(and, of course, Bulgaria did join the EU in 2007).

31.12.2025 16:01 👍 217 🔁 45 💬 7 📌 6
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Saturday march has just started✊🏼
Day 3️⃣9️⃣4️⃣
#GeorgiaProtests
Under the huge Flag🇬🇪🫶🏻

27.12.2025 16:04 👍 28 🔁 18 💬 0 📌 0
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Protesters on Rustaveli Avenue today, December 17. Georgian Dream adopted a new law that prohibits “blocking sidewalks.” Police officers are warning protesters to “free the pavement.”

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 385

17.12.2025 18:09 👍 31 🔁 11 💬 1 📌 2