This is America First in combination with Energy Dominance: starve the rest of the world, while forcing them to buy your LNG at inflated prices
07.03.2026 15:07
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This is America First in combination with Energy Dominance: starve the rest of the world, while forcing them to buy your LNG at inflated prices
I think Trump is laying the rhetorical groundwork for strategic retreat from Iran
Claiming they already lost so he can pull back US forces & move onto the next thing eg Cuba
And let Hormuz reopen to avoid the worst impacts of a deep global energy shock ahead of midterms
What an absolute sh*tshow
Get one now before the price of precious metals triples
I was live on @aljazeera.com yesterday to discuss closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Qatari LNG supply shock, and what it all means for global gas markets.
Here's the clip 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cD9U...
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...
What’s do the Iran war and Trump’s ‘Energy Dominance’ agenda have in common?
Aligned incentives, as I argue here. Turns out, one enables the other.
youtu.be/0puDn_mUTVc?...
Thanks. You never really know how people find you. But as they say, there’s no such thing as bad coverage.
This was fun:
bsky.app/profile/sebk...
I was live on @aljazeera.com yesterday to discuss closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Qatari LNG supply shock, and what it all means for global gas markets.
Here's the clip 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cD9U...
Trying to resist the temptation to do so. Flux is usually a weekly, but that isn’t frequent enough in these situations.
I’ve been inundated with media requests too. Immense hunger for knowledge out there. I’ve given 7 or 8 interviews in 2 days, losing track. Fun but exhausting.
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...
The important point from @sebkennedy.bsky.social
“The idea that you can cost-effectively decarbonise your economies by relying on a commodity that, in the space of 5 years, is subject to two illegal wars that send prices stratospheric, it just doesn’t make any sense”
Solar makes sense.
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥
Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so.
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...
No probs ;)
I’ve been called worse
Multiple commentators have argued that the American LNG business is about to reap massive profits off the Iran war. @sebkennedy.bsky.social's calculations suggest the industry could pocket up to $4bn in windfall profits if the conflict lasts a month www.energyflux.news/war-profits-...
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War profits, quantified 💥
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War profits, quantified 💥
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War profits, quantified 💥
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...
LNG is quietly leaving the Atlantic basin.
The Spark Signals netback chart shows just how violently the economics have flipped in the last 48 hours.
A halt in Qatari LNG production and a surge in Asian spot prices has blown out the JKM premium, sending FOB arbitrage signals sharply higher.
My latest for Energy Flux:
💥 War profits, quantified 💥
As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall
Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...
Final thought: instead of relying on inherently volatile and vulnerable LNG supply chains, perhaps Europe should consider a Plan B for its energy security?
Paging @janrosenow.bsky.social
The BW Brussels may be just one ship. But it won’t be the last.
Europe's winter 2026-27 energy security now rests on two factors: a rapid de-escalation in Iran *and* a quick restart of Qatari exports.
When LNG arbitrage flips, cargoes move fast. Europe’s refill outlook can change just as quickly.
If Asian buyers start pulling flexible cargoes east, the Atlantic basin tightens quickly.
Europe’s refill strategy has always relied on one key assumption: that LNG would remain plentiful.
That assumption is now under pressure.
But for Europe, the timing could hardly be worse.
• EU gas storages exited winter below typical seasonal levels
• The summer refill campaign is about to begin...
• And now Asia may be entering a sudden scramble for LNG after QatarEnergy’s force majeure declaration
Originally heading toward Montoir, France, the vessel has now turned south toward the Cape of Good Hope — a strong indication the cargo will ultimately head to Asian buyers willing to pay higher netbacks.
This is the LNG market doing exactly what it is designed to do: follow the price signal.
For flexible cargoes, the message from the market is blunt: send LNG to Asia.
That signal is already translating into physical movements.
Kpler vessel data shows the BW Brussels, a TotalEnergies-chartered LNG carrier, diverting on 3 March 2026 after lifting a Nigerian cargo from Bonny LNG.
LNG is quietly leaving the Atlantic basin.
The Spark Signals netback chart shows just how violently the economics have flipped in the last 48 hours.
A halt in Qatari LNG production and a surge in Asian spot prices has blown out the JKM premium, sending FOB arbitrage signals sharply higher.
'The question the world must confront is not whether this war was avoidable, but who benefits from it.'
🎯
Read my latest Hot Take on US LNG, war and profit motives here: www.energyflux.news/iran-war-us-...