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David Keller, CMT

@dkellercmt

Host @ Market Misbehavior | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Former StockCharts-Fidelity-Bloomberg | ๐ŸŽบ Musician ๐ŸŽถ | Trying not to take life too seriously ๐Ÿคช | For educational purposes only.

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16.11.2024
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Latest posts by David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt

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We're going LIVE today at 5pm ET / 2pm ET for our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with Dave Keller. Excited to break down the latest charts and market observations as $SPX and $QQQ rallied hard into the close. See you at 5:00pm ET!
youtube.com/live/kQOnGVO...

05.03.2026 21:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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When a stock is in a downtrend phase, I consider short-term rallies to be a "trade" not an "investment" until and unless the price breaks above the 200-day moving average. $CPB is a perfect example of the folly of chasing short-term gains and ignoring the longer-term downtrend!

05.03.2026 19:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Bullish charts keep going up. And when they stop going up, that's no longer bullish. But if they don't stop going up, then they don't stop being bullish. $ROST

05.03.2026 18:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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$AMZN > 225 = breakout above all the moving averages
$AMZN < 200 = breakdown of key support
$AMZN between 200 and 225 = ๐Ÿ’ค

05.03.2026 17:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
AMZN, TSLA Bounce as S&P Stalls | LRCX Divergence, MRNA Breakout | CHART THIS
AMZN, TSLA Bounce as S&P Stalls | LRCX Divergence, MRNA Breakout | CHART THIS Markets followed through on Tuesdayโ€™s strength with another constructive session, but the bigger story remains the same: the S&P 500 is stuck in a persistent sideways range. In todayโ€™s episode ofโ€ฆ

The S&P 500 is sideways โ€” but plenty of charts arenโ€™t.

Today on CHART THIS I break down:

โ€ข Amazon and Tesla bouncing
โ€ข Lam Research divergence
โ€ข Broadcom earnings
โ€ข Bitcoin back above 70K
โ€ข Improving trends like Moderna and LYB

Watch here:
youtu.be/JqVFHeQLjrs

05.03.2026 00:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
George Noble: Regime Change, Gold to $7,000, and Why the AI Trade Is Breaking
George Noble: Regime Change, Gold to $7,000, and Why the AI Trade Is Breaking In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by legendary investor George Noble. George began his career as an intern for Peter Lynch at Fidelity and later managed the Fidelityโ€ฆ

Rotation, not recession.

Legendary investor George Noble joins me to discuss regime change, energy vs. tech, gold vs. Bitcoin, and why price โ‰  value.

One of the most candid conversations weโ€™ve had in a while.

youtu.be/3EvIIqNN_oA

04.03.2026 18:14 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Market Panic or Opportunity? Navigating Middle East Volatility | CHART THIS
Market Panic or Opportunity? Navigating Middle East Volatility | CHART THIS Dave breaks down an incredibly volatile Tuesday session where the S&P 500 opened significantly lower as conflict in the Middle East accelerated. Despite the initial "fog of war" causing spikes in theโ€ฆ

Volatility is the story today! ๐Ÿ“Š The S&P 500 clawed back from its lows, but the Hindenburg Omen is flashing and the VIX is in a "danger zone." Iโ€™m breaking down the breakdown in Gold โญ๏ธ, the surge in Defense stocks ๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ, and wisdom from the great John Murphy. ๐Ÿ™

Full update here โ†’ youtu.be/RAvdpSYDCrc

03.03.2026 23:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Top 10 Charts to Watch | March 2026 Breakouts & Inflection Points
Top 10 Charts to Watch | March 2026 Breakouts & Inflection Points David Keller shares his top 10 charts to watch for March 2026, breaking them into three key groups: stocks sustaining breakouts, Magnificent Seven names at crucial inflection points, and beaten-downโ€ฆ

March chart watchlist is live ๐Ÿ“Š

Energy breakouts. Magnificent 7 at key levels. A few bottom-fishing setups. One textbook uptrend into earnings.

Tickers: $MPC $JBL $TGT $AAPL $NVDA $NFLX $COIN $PLTR $UPWK $ROST

Full breakdown here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvma...

03.03.2026 01:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Middle East Shock: Oil Spikes, VIX Over 20, Markets Shrug It Off
Middle East Shock: Oil Spikes, VIX Over 20, Markets Shrug It Off Geopolitical headlines drove a major overnight move โ€” crude oil surged, volatility stayed elevated, and sector leadership rotated hardโ€ฆ yet the S&P 500 finished essentially flat. In todayโ€™s episodeโ€ฆ

Oil jumped on geopolitics, volatility stayed elevated, and yet stocks stabilized into the close. In todayโ€™s Chart This: S&P 500 levels (7,000 as the new bullish line), credit spreads, VIX, crude oilโ€™s overbought test, NVDA at the 200D, and Bitcoin near 70K.
youtu.be/2pOu95n-No4

02.03.2026 22:54 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Forget Predictions | Price, Price, Price Is All You Need in 2026! featuring Clint Sorenson
Forget Predictions | Price, Price, Price Is All You Need in 2026! featuring Clint Sorenson In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Clint Sorenson, CMT, Co-Founder of Ascentis Asset Management. We dig into how Clint uses technical analysis as a completeโ€ฆ

โ€œThe three most important indicators are price, price, price.โ€
Also a simple framework for a complex market: GRIP = Growth, Risk Appetite, Inflation, Policy. Clint Sorenson walks through how he tracks regime shifts in 2026. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ey_q...

28.02.2026 13:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
NVIDIA Earnings Didnโ€™t Lift Stocksโ€ฆ Hereโ€™s What That Means (CHART THIS Mailbag)
NVIDIA Earnings Didnโ€™t Lift Stocksโ€ฆ Hereโ€™s What That Means (CHART THIS Mailbag) NVIDIA delivered strong earnings, but the stock couldnโ€™t follow through to the upside โ€” an important tell about current risk appetite in mega-cap growth. In todayโ€™s episode of CHART THIS, Dave Kellerโ€ฆ

Mailbag Friday! Covered call ETFs $JEPI and $JEPQ, how to manage the psychology of selling, MOVE Index vs $VIX, $NFLX reversal checklist, and how to evaluate โ€œexpertsโ€ on financial TV!
youtu.be/8LAY2qYkuMI

27.02.2026 22:09 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
NVIDIA Earnings Reaction + Bitcoin Rip: Will the S&P 500 Clear 7000?
NVIDIA Earnings Reaction + Bitcoin Rip: Will the S&P 500 Clear 7000? Markets delivered a clear risk-on session as the Nasdaq led higher, crypto surged, and volatility cooledโ€”yet the S&P 500 remains locked in a frustrating range. In todayโ€™s episode of CHART THIS, Daveโ€ฆ

The S&P 500 is still rangebound (6800โ€“7000), even on a strong risk-on day.

Tech led, VIX slipped under 18, Bitcoin surged back toward 70K (and COIN moved a lot). I also break down IGV at long-term support + a โ€œgap-and-failโ€ risk in Deere.

youtu.be/pzyEI79gE2Y

25.02.2026 23:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
NVIDIA Earnings Loom: S&P 500 Range, VIX Whipsaw, Bonds Rally | CHART THIS (Feb 24)
NVIDIA Earnings Loom: S&P 500 Range, VIX Whipsaw, Bonds Rally | CHART THIS (Feb 24) Markets rebounded Tuesday as the S&P 500 pushed back toward the upper end of its recent range, but the broader technical picture remains unresolved. In todayโ€™s episode of CHART THIS, Dave Kellerโ€ฆ

We bounced back toward 7000 today, but the S&P 500 is still rangebound between 6800 and 7000.

Iโ€™m watching NVDA into earnings, AMD near support, falling yields, and improving breadth.

Full episode:
youtu.be/Q0fDityvNbQ

24.02.2026 23:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Defensive Surge, Financials Crack Ahead of NVDA Earnings | CHART THIS
Defensive Surge, Financials Crack Ahead of NVDA Earnings | CHART THIS Markets started the week with a clear risk-off tone as the S&P 500 fell back toward 6800 and defensive sectors surged. In todayโ€™s episode of CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down a session defined byโ€ฆ

We opened the week risk-off.

Financials broke down, Microsoft remains weak, Bitcoin resolved lower, and gold surged. The S&P is back testing 6800 while defensive sectors lead.

I break down key levels and rotation signals.

Watch here:
youtu.be/9yPl7ZaQqR8

23.02.2026 23:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
S&P Back Above 6900 as Mega Caps Rally | CHART THIS Mailbag
S&P Back Above 6900 as Mega Caps Rally | CHART THIS Mailbag Markets finished the week on a constructive note as the S&P 500 pushed back above 6900, closing near the highs of the day despite tariff headlines and intraday volatility. In todayโ€™s episode of CHARTโ€ฆ

The S&P closed back above 6900 to end the week.

$GOOGL $AMZN and $NFLX powered the rally, silver surged 8%, and I tackled viewer questions on $CAT entries, $MSFT Fibonacci risk, ENPHโ€™s breakout and the Hindenburg Omen.

Full CHART THIS Mailbag:
youtu.be/XhC6BvnRNWo

20.02.2026 22:41 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
AI Is Realโ€”But Is the ROI? Tom Martin on Earnings Signals, CapEx, and Market Valuations
AI Is Realโ€”But Is the ROI? Tom Martin on Earnings Signals, CapEx, and Market Valuations In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Tom Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments. Recorded 2/18/26. We dig into whatโ€™s driving markets in earlyโ€ฆ

Markets flat near the highs + valuations near the upper end of history. Tom Martin breaks down what that actually meansโ€”and what could sustain (or break) it in 2026. www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB0G...

20.02.2026 17:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
S&P Stuck in โ€œNo Manโ€™s Landโ€ as Energy Breaks Out | CHART THIS
S&P Stuck in โ€œNo Manโ€™s Landโ€ as Energy Breaks Out | CHART THIS Markets delivered a quiet but telling session on Thursday as the S&P 500 remained stuck between 6800 and 7000. In todayโ€™s episode of CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down a market that feels heavy atโ€ฆ

The S&P is stuck between 6800 and 7000, but leadership is shifting.

DE surged on earnings, energy stocks broke out, and COIN continues to exaggerate Bitcoinโ€™s moves.

Hereโ€™s how Iโ€™m framing the risk:
youtu.be/wlUaz8azMrA

19.02.2026 23:08 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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โ€œThe S&P looks calmโ€ฆ but underneath, itโ€™s churning like crazy.โ€
Great convo with Gina Martin Adams (HB Wealth) on concentration risk, price-to-sales extremes, and why 2026 may be a stock pickerโ€™s market.
๐ŸŽ™๏ธ Latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: youtu.be/MQn1q4Mmp4w

19.02.2026 17:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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RSI Divergences Can Signal Major Tops โ€” But Only If Confirmed! RSI divergences can warn of potential major tops, but only if confirmed by breakdown signals. David Keller walks through DG, GOOGL, AT&T, and the S&P 500 to show what must happen before a divergence b...

Bearish RSI divergences can hint at a major top โ€” but only if price & key levels confirm. Momentum can fade while price still grinds higher. Patience & confirmation are essential.

My latest article on StockCharts:
articles.stockcharts.com/article/rsi-...

19.02.2026 00:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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AVGO & GOOGL Test Support, Energy Breaks Out, Bitcoin Wobbles | CHART THIS YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

The S&P is rangebound between 6800 and 7000, but rotation is everywhere.

Energy is breaking out, AVGO and GOOGL are testing support, and Bitcoin looks vulnerable.

I walk through the key levels and leadership signals here:
youtube.com/live/rlPNdYN...

18.02.2026 23:18 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
S&P 6800 in Focus as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Again | CHART THIS
S&P 6800 in Focus as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Again | CHART THIS YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Weโ€™re still stuck between 6800 and 7000 on the $SPX, but the evidence is getting more interesting.

The Hindenburg Omen just confirmed again, financials are testing support, and Alphabet broke down.

Hereโ€™s what Iโ€™m watching next:
youtu.be/EcrZXdto7XQ

17.02.2026 22:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Rob Haworth: 2026 Macro Momentum, Fed Uncertainty, Tariffs & the 10-Year Risk
Rob Haworth: 2026 Macro Momentum, Fed Uncertainty, Tariffs & the 10-Year Risk YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Rob Haworth (U.S. Bank Asset Management) joins Market Misbehavior for a macro check-in: economy momentum, inflation + earnings trends, tariffs, geopolitics, midterm-year noise, and why the 10-year yield may be the key risk signal in 2026.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSNZ...

17.02.2026 00:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Defensive Rotation Continues as Trend Model Turns Bearish | CHART THIS Mailbag
Defensive Rotation Continues as Trend Model Turns Bearish | CHART THIS Mailbag YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Defensive sectors are leading in February, the VIX is holding above 20, and my short-term trend model turned bearish again. In todayโ€™s CHART THIS mailbag, I cover earnings strategy (MAR), Bitcoin correlation, and trading discipline.

youtu.be/sJDwa7R6zFQ

13.02.2026 23:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Risk-off day today. Apple -5%, Cisco -12%, VIX back above 20, and defensive sectors leading. I break down S&P support levels, breadth deterioration, and what would confirm a deeper pullback. Full recap here: youtu.be/X4jM2fi0dY0

12.02.2026 22:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
CHART THIS with Dave Keller | The SPX Stall and Why Global Markets Are Shifting
CHART THIS with Dave Keller | The SPX Stall and Why Global Markets Are Shifting YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

U.S. indices are stuck in the mud, but Iโ€™m seeing a massive move into Staples and Energy. ๐Ÿ“Š I'm breaking down the Shooting Star candle in Apple, the breakdown in Alphabet, and why international markets are decisively outperforming the S&P 500 right now. ๐Ÿ ๐ŸŒ

Full update here โ†’ youtu.be/NptcK-RA_eE

11.02.2026 23:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
S&P 500 Near 7,000: Growth Bounce, Gold Surge, and Airline Breakouts | CHART THIS
S&P 500 Near 7,000: Growth Bounce, Gold Surge, and Airline Breakouts | CHART THIS YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Markets moved higher Monday, but leadership remains selective. In todayโ€™s CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down tech strength, sector rotation, commodities, crypto, and why the S&P 500 is still stuck below 7000.
youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU

10.02.2026 23:03 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question is what happens after the 200-day is reached?

10.02.2026 18:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang that looks tempting.....

10.02.2026 17:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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#Bitcoin is a tough chart right about now. Potential V-bottom, but the momentum remains incredibly weak. Has lost over 50% of its value since Oct 2025 peak, but the chart remains in a primary downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.

I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?

10.02.2026 16:24 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
S&P 500 Near 7,000: Growth Bounce, Gold Surge, and Airline Breakouts | CHART THIS
S&P 500 Near 7,000: Growth Bounce, Gold Surge, and Airline Breakouts | CHART THIS YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Markets moved higher Monday, but the real story was rotation. Tech rebounded, gold and silver surged, and airlines quietly broke out.

On todayโ€™s CHART THIS, I break down $SPX near 7000, $NVDA at resistance, and why select airlines are improving.

CHART THIS โ†’ youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU

09.02.2026 23:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0