oil basically holding and vol curve still very inverted. stocks have done well to hang in today, but not sure the conditions are lining up yet for a real rally (esp in front of the weekend)
feels like stocks are trying to anticipate oil coming in here
hoping my hands don’t rip on the muscle ups in 26.2
spent another 10 minutes now looking for the scene where Chris Flowers says of Paulson and Treasury, “they’re not on top of this”
mechanics break today may be incoming
March VX gonna take out Tuesday highs with ES still well above its lows
bullish PMs: with the jobs report coming tomorrow the market can shift its focus from geopolitical concerns back to fundamentals
right. even coming into this market we’re starting to shake. the vol move in October with stocks at ATHs. the November correction. crypto and software destroyed. hyperscalers all fell on earnings on the capex numbers. private equity issues. oil going back to 60 doesn’t mean happy days are here again
oil trading like VIX into liberation day. maybe it fizzles back down to pre event levels if the worst doesn’t happen. but there is a growing chance (even if still relatively small) it goes to 125+
Tottenham going to championship stadiums next season
walking to the NYMEX pit
trying to think of something close to Arsenal win the league and Spurs go down and I’ve got nothing
these are rings
doing it tomorrow at 12pm!
26.2 is here and this one I will smash
we probably are oil traders the next couple weeks
megas tried to push indices last 20 minutes, but oil makes a new high
there's a lot of activity in OTM March VX puts. people making some size bets vols come in quite a bit the next 2 weeks, and I just don't see it
now oil pushing in 81s. even if mideast is solved in 2 weeks (not likely), assuming markets suddenly become awesome (remember they weren't awesome) to reach those 7800 price targets is a bit optimistic
beating the dead horse. markets 👏 were 👏 not 👏 healthy 👏 coming into this. unhealthy breadth expansion took the baton from the megas. vols started picking up in October when SPX was at ATHs. November correction. hyperscalers smashed on AI capex guidance. crypto, software. private equity 🪦
when i hear people say the action from the last few months is healthier than the low vol narrow breath advancing market we had in 2023 and 2024
after both being wrecked for months, and then bouncing together the last couple weeks, kinda interesting IGV and crypto finally diverging today
new monkey wrench oil seems like it’s in charge in the short term. don’t think stocks can rally until it stops this ascent and comes in
down 48bps on ES pushing VIX 1.35 vols says, “it’s gonna be volatile for a while”
vols still very sensitive to regular market moves
also disliked them because this dope knew he was untouchable youtu.be/-lIRKyWDhhk
when Man U and Chelsea were physically pushing the Wenger squads around the pitch Arsenal were called soft, criticized for trying to score the perfect goal by passing the ball into the net
