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Dave Kasten

@davekasten

Do what seems cool next. "You need to learn WHY things work on a starship."-Admiral James T. Kirk

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Latest posts by Dave Kasten @davekasten

I don't know how to explain this but Casablanca is a movie for adults.

There are lots of movies built on an element of fantasy about being young or brave or defying the odds.

Casablanca is not that. Everyone in that movie has back pain and they have all just accepted it.

06.03.2026 10:38 πŸ‘ 247 πŸ” 52 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Event organizer / investigative journalist seems to be telling a former Google L7 SWE that AI can't write code.

06.03.2026 01:31 πŸ‘ 43 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

I feel like David Graeber really captured something about lefty academia because the concept of β€œbullshit job” is very resonant and has a lot of intuitive appeal but his exploration of it is totally hamstrung by the fact that he’s never left campus and is very vague on the mechanics of actual work

05.03.2026 14:33 πŸ‘ 771 πŸ” 65 πŸ’¬ 29 πŸ“Œ 17

It's definitely a bit of a trip when like staff engineers and research compiler engineers I know irl are using Claude or whatever but no, middling enterprise devs and undergrad CS students will be our zealous defenders of artisanal code quality

05.03.2026 22:58 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

it is really funny watching actual, literal knownothings confidently tell people who I know are very competent developers *at minimum* that LLM code is "low quality"

who's more likely to know that?

05.03.2026 22:48 πŸ‘ 104 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2

For years on my old blog I published the names of servicemembers who died in Iraq & Afghanistan. No other outlets were.

These are the first 4 Americans to die in the Iran War.
Capt. Cody A. Khork, 35
Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, 42
Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor, 39
Sgt. Declan J. Coady, 20

03.03.2026 23:07 πŸ‘ 8990 πŸ” 2992 πŸ’¬ 429 πŸ“Œ 162
AI Expert Tells Bernie: β€œThe Humans will be Discarded”
AI Expert Tells Bernie: β€œThe Humans will be Discarded” YouTube video by Senator Bernie Sanders

Will AI become smarter than humans?

If so, is humanity in danger?

I went to Silicon Valley to ask some of the leading AI experts that question.

Here’s what they had to say:

04.03.2026 22:21 πŸ‘ 574 πŸ” 160 πŸ’¬ 92 πŸ“Œ 44

we have reached levels of inability to infer the ball's trajectory never before thought possible

04.03.2026 22:40 πŸ‘ 100 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0

Jesse is not only a great and brilliant dude, but a Big Damn Hero from his past work as one of the leaders of VaccinateCA. Can't wait to see what he does with this.

04.03.2026 23:42 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œhow do you know it’s right?” I don’t know, you see Opus work through logic of low-medium complexity with 100% reliability for three months and eventually you start relying on its capability there and save your critical evaluation for more important things

04.03.2026 01:21 πŸ‘ 45 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

> This task *must* be done exactly perfectly every time; any deviation or nondeterminism whatsoever is immediately disqualifying

< Wow, so any two people in your field would always reach the exact same result?

> Of course not, there's a huge amount of judgement required and we frequently disagree

28.02.2026 17:34 πŸ‘ 46 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

worse than that, this denial leads to extremely wrong predictions about what is going to happen over the next year (it’s going away any time guys!), and getting those predictions roughly right is very important for people’s careers and their professions’ ability to cope and adapt

04.03.2026 14:22 πŸ‘ 86 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

anthropic's current run rate beats openai's 2025 whole year rate. openai has of course grown too, but it seems clear that anthropic can definitely catch them here if they have not already.

04.03.2026 01:00 πŸ‘ 152 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Ex-NSA leader, OpenAI board member calls out Anthropic-Pentagon fight "This is not a good space for our nation," Gen. Paul Nakasone said at a conference in the Bay Area.

Gen. Nakasone, former head of the NSA & an OpenAI board member, called out the Pentagon's move to designate Anthropic as a "supply chain risk" at a conference in Sausalito last night.

"This is not a good space for our nation."

more @axios.com:
www.axios.com/2026/03/03/n...

03.03.2026 17:00 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

sure feels like the amount of news one is expected to keep up with is growing geometrically

03.03.2026 16:12 πŸ‘ 130 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 3

When I am President I will order every frontier AI company to subtly lace all responses to venture capitalists with basic concepts from political science and philosophy, or be designated a supply chain risk. Vote Patel

02.03.2026 18:51 πŸ‘ 432 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 0

the compresence of both hype and substance is very tough for people who learned their intuitions from the NFT boom

02.03.2026 16:02 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
This strikes at a core principle of the American republic, one that has traditionally been especially dear to conservatives: private property. Suppose, for example, that the military approached Google and said β€œwe would like to purchase individualized worldwide Google search data to do with whatever we want, and if you object, we will designate you a supply chain risk.” I don’t think they are going to do that, but there is no difference in principle between this and the message DoW is sending. There is no such thing as private property. If we need to use it for national security, we simply will. The government won’t quite β€œsteal” it from youβ€”they’ll compensate youβ€”but you cannot set the terms, and you cannot simply exit from the transaction, lest you be deemed a β€œsupply chain risk,” not to mention have the other litany of policy obstacles the government can throw at you.

This strikes at a core principle of the American republic, one that has traditionally been especially dear to conservatives: private property. Suppose, for example, that the military approached Google and said β€œwe would like to purchase individualized worldwide Google search data to do with whatever we want, and if you object, we will designate you a supply chain risk.” I don’t think they are going to do that, but there is no difference in principle between this and the message DoW is sending. There is no such thing as private property. If we need to use it for national security, we simply will. The government won’t quite β€œsteal” it from youβ€”they’ll compensate youβ€”but you cannot set the terms, and you cannot simply exit from the transaction, lest you be deemed a β€œsupply chain risk,” not to mention have the other litany of policy obstacles the government can throw at you.

Good point from Dean Ball on Pentagon/Anthropic and why the real stakes go even further than AI www.hyperdimensional.co/p/clawed

02.03.2026 15:50 πŸ‘ 422 πŸ” 132 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 21

you can also do puritan names like Diligence and Discipline.

wait. wait

Benevolence Diligence Love-Thy-Neighbor

02.03.2026 15:00 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1

an llm is, among other things, an advanced nominative determinism machine. you notice only anthropic gave their llm a human name? this is a major part of how they think about the technology. leaning into every one of these oddities is a big part of their success

02.03.2026 14:51 πŸ‘ 124 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 4

Becoming the galactic hegemon by just giving the best scritches to every alien we come across

02.03.2026 14:16 πŸ‘ 147 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2

also the basic capability only came up in the past 3-9 months. before that, the models and harnesses weren't good enough. that this point of view was not anticipated I think is a consequence of the hype-obsessed critique that leads everyone astray

02.03.2026 15:54 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

I tried to explain that I was only telling them how I came to the point of view I had out of long experience, and that the lesson I took away was humility about the future. this is considered condescending, dismissive, and arrogant

02.03.2026 15:31 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

I am more interested in what the claim is taken to imply. it's virtually always an implicit or explicit "and that's why LLMs can never do X". but often this X is something they obviously can do, so the whole thing is silly: appealing to the lack of reason to explain something that's not even true

02.03.2026 14:31 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I am tired of folks showing up in my mentions to argue some insane point about what "reasoning" that ends up being "it's not reasoning if I know how it's done."

Tonight's new low: "It's not reasoning if it's a function." That commits you to "kids executing long division aren't reasoning." Absurd.

02.03.2026 04:59 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Reading this, again, you get the sense that someone at Anthropic knows how the intel community misleads by using definitions of words that are different than everyone else believes. And the people at OpenAI simply don't know or don't care about that.

01.03.2026 17:40 πŸ‘ 1412 πŸ” 324 πŸ’¬ 23 πŸ“Œ 12

This is a bombshell: "the Pentagon wanted the company to allow for the collection and analysis of unclassified, commercial bulk data on Americans, such as geolocation and web browsing data"

This kind of agenda echoes the defunded Total Information Awareness effort, post-9/11

01.03.2026 19:26 πŸ‘ 2318 πŸ” 1027 πŸ’¬ 54 πŸ“Œ 62
Post image

Re: anthropic:
- it's interesting how unified the "AI guys" are in support of anthropic; even the OAI die-hards are on their side of this.
- the right-wing "pro freedom" VCs on the other hand...

01.03.2026 13:16 πŸ‘ 199 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 3

Source describes the failed Pentagon-Anthropic talks: through the end, the Pentagon wanted to use Anthropic's AI to analyze bulk data collected about Americans (Ross Andersen/The Atlantic)

Main Link | Techmeme Permalink

01.03.2026 16:35 πŸ‘ 625 πŸ” 249 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 50

if not familiar the strawberry dude being quoted is literally prominent entirely for having been an openai fanboy account

01.03.2026 17:18 πŸ‘ 70 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0