Check out this great episode with Andrew Martinez. He shares the inspiring story of his path into forecasting research and insights on the latest literature. He also talks about our paper "When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises" www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...
Great to visit CAP to debate solutions to the affordability crisis. @tarasinc.bsky.social and I argued against price controls, while finding common ground with @bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social on the need for real action to make life more affordable. Watch:
I’m looking forward to being part of this panel on affordability on Feb 10th - join us! It’s open to the public in person and online. Register here: rsvp2.americanprogress.org/theaffordabi...
This Thursday, join us for a virtual event on the opportunities and challenges of regulating AI. Hear from @tarasinc.bsky.social, Catherine Tucker, Nicol Turner Lee, and Sanjay Patnaik:
How do we regulate AI? Join us on 12/4 at 10:00 a.m. ET for a virtual event with @tarasinc.bsky.social, Catherine Tucker, Nicol Turner Lee, and Sanjay Patnaik:
🚨 Nov 21!
Join the next #AMLEDS webinar with @tarasinc.bsky.social presenting her “FOMC In Silico” paper that combines LLM-driven agents & Bayesian voting to simulate FOMC decisions, moderated by Shubhranshu Shekhar(Brandeis)
🕚 11AM ET-5PM CET
📄 ssrn.com/abstract=542...
#AI #LLMs #EconSky
From search engines to resume screening, algorithmic AI has become increasingly common in our everyday lives. On 12/4, hear from @tarasinc.bsky.social, Catherine Tucker, Nicol Turner Lee, and Sanjay Patnaik on the opportunities and risks associated with the growing use of algorithms:
Meet Sim Powell and his LLM Fed colleagues that argue, cajole, and dissent like the real FOMC. Amazing discussion with @tarasinc.bsky.social on her work with Sophia Kazinnik where they replicate and experiment with the FOMC via LLMs of each Fed official! Full show: youtu.be/rpLAka4MKIc (1/2)
Register now to join us at FFC/2025: The 26th Federal Forecasters Conference on October 9th! cer.columbian.gwu.edu/ffc2025-26th...
Speakers at #NABE2025 will address a shifting trade landscape, geopolitical instabilities, the complexities of widespread AI adoption, as well as persistent inflation and escalating fiscal imbalances. Join us and explore how governments and businesses can adapt to these new and enduring pressures.
#NABE2025 will explore the challenges and opportunities confronting leaders as they navigate an evolving global economy.
Join us for the 2025 NABE Economic Policy Conference, “Global Reset? New Dynamics Facing Business and Policy Leaders,” March 2-4 in Washington, DC! Register now! www.NABE.com/PC2025
Overall the report today looked like another set of data consistent with a soft landing.
More resources to the statistical agencies could help them collect more data more quickly and provide better information for data-driven decisions. For other examples, see the slides my (very nerdy) talk from last October: "Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches".
Statistical agencies face a timeliness versus accuracy tradeoff and provide the best estimates they can early on and as more information comes in they provide updates and revisions. They're doing incredible work on shoestring budgets.
Seasonal factor revisions strike again! Remember that increase in the U.S. unemployment rate in July to 4.3%? It ends up peak unemployment so far this cycle, based on updated seasonal adjustments, was just 4.2%. This is a challenge for policymakers watching every data release.
New Business Applications increased in November 2024 remaining at high levels relative to 2019. Applications in November 2024 for likely employers 46% higher than average month in 2019.
I got my Macro Musings podcast nominal GDP targeting mug. Check out the episode here: macromusings.libsyn.com/tara-sinclai...
On 9/27 at 3pm ET, join us at #ClimateConversations: The Macroeconomy with Eric Kemp-Benedict, Gregor Semieniuk and me on how to better incorporate climate into #Economic models: bit.ly/cc-macroecon...
