...Would effectively wipe out the £150/year cut in average bills due to 2025 Budget policy changes
www.gov.uk/government/p...
04.03.2026 15:42
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...Would effectively wipe out the £150/year cut in average bills due to 2025 Budget policy changes
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Cornwall Insight says current levels of UK wholesale gas prices (if sustained) would push up the Ofgem domestic fuel price cap by 10% for July-September 2026.
+£160/year for typical household bill...
www.cornwall-insight.com/press-and-me...
Pretty big falls for US stocks on opening on Tuesday.
S&P500 & Nasdaq down around 2%...
finance.yahoo.com
Higher peak in unemployment...
Some other notable forecast changes since November 2025.
Lower net migration...
OBR's inflation forecast is unchanged since November 2025
It's this element of the Spring Statement forecast that's probably most at risk...
One obvious risk to this forecast is energy prices.
OBR forecasts for oil price in 2026-27 is $63 a barrel - it's currently at $84
OBR gas price forecast is £0.74 a therm - it's currently trading at £1.45...
Higher public spending (mainly on SEND) in the target year of 2029-30 is more than offset by strong forecast tax receipts, reducing projected borrowing by around £4bn on net...
In Spring Statement Office for Budget Responsibility projects UK current budget surplus of £24bn in 2029-30 - up from the £22bn projected in the November 2025 Budget - so "headroom" vs fiscal rule has slightly increased, though basically unchanged... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6d7...
OBR confirms £4bn a year increase in UK department spending on SEND in the three years to 2030-31
All consistent with market expectations of inflationary shock to world economy, with Europe in particular hit hard
10 year government bond yields across developed countries up between 4 and 14 basis points... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Oil price up further 7% to $83/barrel... tradingeconomics.com/commodity/br...
UK natural gas price up 39%... tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk...
European natural gas price up 42% today... tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu...
Market reaction today to the Middle East conflict is worse than on Monday.
Shares down across Europe - 3.7% in Germany, 2.9% in France, 2.6% in UK... finance.yahoo.com
Pretty painful session for European stocks on first day of trading since the US-Israel war with Iran - German index down 2.24% and France just under 2%... uk.finance.yahoo.com
...shows traders now betting on slower rate of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England.
Gilt yields might fall back, but if they don't will mean higher UK government borrowing (all else equal) & tomorrow's central forecasts from the OBR in the Spring Statement will have an upside risk
UK Gilt yields now up 10-17 basis points today at the 2-10 year end of the curve, due to the US-Israel war with Iran...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Impact of sustained 10% global oil price spike was estimated by the International Monetary Fund in 2023
+0.4pp to global inflation
-0.15pp off global growth
mediacenter.imf.org/news/imf-wor...
Estimates from the Bank of England last year suggested a 10% spike in oil prices could increase UK inflation by around 0.5 percentage points - lower impact on GDP of around 0.1 percentage points www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/...
Signals market expectations of
- higher energy prices
- slower pace of UK interest rate cuts
- some harm to UK firms' prospects
More UK focused FTSE250 down 1.5%... uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTMC/
FTSE 100 opens 0.9% down... uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTSE/
Sterling down 1.22% vs the dollar to $1.3317... www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD...
UK Gilt yields up 4-14 basis points at the 2 to 10 year end...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
UK gas price up 30% to 101p per therm... www.marketwatch.com/investing/fu...
Some UK financial markets morning reaction to the Iran-US-Israel conflict.
Brent crude oil price up around 10% to $80 per barrel... uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTMC/
Some context for this debate: bsky.app/profile/benc...
The Conservatives have today said they would scrap the real interest rate charged on Plan 2 student loans saving graduates "tens of thousands of pounds".
But *which* graduates would financially benefit?...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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