@plegrain
Senior visiting fellow at LSE's European Institute; Founder, Open Political Economy Network (OPEN) think tank. Author of 5 books, commentator, researcher, dog owner I write a Substack at https://philippelegrain.substack.com/
Employment rates for non-EU born are now *above* those for the UK born.
Gap used be nearly 10 percentage points.
A tribute to the success of UK immigration/immigrants and labour market integration, especially in recent years.
Something government should celebrate..
Read my latest column for
@brusselstimes.com
www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/1...
While many things need to change, at EU level there are 3 big levers for economic reform:
deeper integration in the EU's incomplete single market,
lighter-touch regulation for smaller companies and innovative sectors, and
increased investment, not least in venture capital.
While the EU has suffered big external shocks in recent years - Russian energy, US tariffs, Chinese competition - the core problem is its corporatist economic model, which favours established companies in mature industries over innovative startups in growth sectors like tech.
#EU leaders have just gathered for yet another discussion on how to make Europe's economy more "competitive".
That's the wrong target; the aim should be to make the EU more dynamic. 🧵#econsky
www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/1...
The caveat: if gold becomes a more mainstream financial asset, it may lose some of its safe-haven properties.
Read my latest for @brusselstimes.com
www.brusselstimes.com/1949906/the-...
And it can also offer a decent return. Ignoring the past year's exuberance, gold appreciated by an average of 9% a year between Jan 2000 & Jan 2025.
Clearly, speculation is part of the story. FOMO has amplified fear of geopolitical & financial turmoil.
But in a time of war and Western sanctions, geopolitical upheaval & loss of trust in the dollar, gold is also a valuable form of insurance that has stood the test of time.
The price of #gold has plunged over the past week, but is still up more than 10% this year and has nearly doubled since the start of 2025.
Is it just a #bubble? Or are there sound reasons for gold's safe-haven appeal?
www.brusselstimes.com/1949906/the-...
My guide to getting over reading block in @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/article/12c0...
Conclusion: We need a fortress Europe militarily, but not economically.
Check out my latest column for @brusselstimes.com
www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/1937...
Third, develop & deepen partnerships that bypass US with
1) like-minded powers eg #Canada, #Japan, #Australia & #UK
2) emerging powers eg #India & #Mercosur, and
3) cooperate with #China eg on climate change.
This explains why EU-Mercosur deal matters btw
www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/1...
1) Invest massively in EU #tech (& deregulate);
2) Accelerate #energy transition to reduce US gas dependency
3) Issue more EU bonds to boost #euro's global role.
Second, reduce Europe's economic vulnerability.
Contrary to Trump's claims, EU-US trade is broadly balanced. So if Europe could defend itself, it could stand its ground economically.
But still diversify away from US, especially in areas Trump can use as leverage: eg tech, energy, finance
France & UK, Europe’s existing nuclear powers, should also develop a nuclear deterrence strategy for defending Europe if Trump won’t.
With a defence splurge, a drone wall & an enhanced nuclear deterrent, Europe could better defend Ukraine, deter Putin & resist Trump’s blackmail.
2) Invest massively in Ukrainian drone production to aid its defence & erect a drone wall along Europe's border with Russia.
3) Develop joint nuclear deterrent among #NATO countries that surround #Baltic Sea. Sweden & Finland have nuclear reactors & expertise to develop nukes
Top priority is #defence. While fully replacing US role will take years, big progress can be made quickly.
1) Spend much more, now. #EU borrowing ideally, raise taxes/cut spending otherwise. The state’s top priority is to defend its citizens. Failing to rearm is a false economy.
After the #Greenland crisis, Europeans need to face facts: they can't rely on #Trump to protect them from #Russia; indeed, he too poses a threat.
It's time to accelerate plans to reduce Europe’s military, economic & tech dependence on Trump’s America.
www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/1937...
Good ideas from @martinsandbu.ft.com on what Europe needs to do to put more pressure on Putin, and be indispensable to talks about #Ukraine www.ft.com/content/7409...
Conclusion: in a world governed by force, Europe needs to be able to defend itself – not by 2035, but now.
When in 2019 Trump first suggested the US acquire #Greenland, Europeans dismissed the idea as a bad joke. But they’re not laughing now.
My @brusselstimes.com column explains why Trump wants it, how he might gain control & what that would mean for Europe.
www.brusselstimes.com/1910890/afte...
Superb @mortenmorland.bsky.social 🤣
Good piece by @plegrain.bsky.social - thanks for mentioning my "bad bank" proposal for the blocked Russian reserves.
thanks Martin
Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’ that Donald Trump wants to trade for peace
Known as the Donbas, the region has become the fulcrum of fraught US-led diplomacy to end Russia’s full-scale invasion.
A bit of history, the recent past & present in my
@financialtimes.com piece today
www.ft.com/content/ec49...
Read my latest @brusselstimes.com column
www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/1...
Providing €80bn a year would entail borrowing 0.4% of EU GDP a year, a total of only 2% of GDP over 5 years.
To bypass a Hungarian veto, a coalition of willing governments could, if necessary, establish a separate entity for that purpose, as they did during the eurozone crisis
If all else fails, the EU should simply borrow the money to fund Ukraine. That's what the Commission is proposing as a stopgap, and it could also be a viable longer-term solution.
There's a compelling case for using Russia’s frozen assets. It would be morally right, legally justified and politically expedient.
But Belgium, which hosts most of the assets, objects, as does Hungary’s pro-Putin PM Viktor Orban, and the Commission’s legal workaround is a stretch.