Would Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates help small borrowers? They make credit unavailable to some. But unrestricted, some borrow more than they can pay back. On balance, caps help.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/02/19/usury-laws-and-trumps-proposed-cap-on-credit-card-interest-rates/
Tariffs did little damage to US GDP & inflation in 2025. Explanatn? 1. Govt shutdown derailed late-year stats 2. Trump backed off the most extreme tariffs 3. Importers stockpiled ahead 4. Firms absorbed higher prices, rather than passing on fully to consumers. Probably in 2026.
prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY
This year, the earliest sunset, at least in Boston, comes Monday, December 8, at 4:13:12 pm. (In London the sun will keep setting earlier, until December 12, at 3:51 pm.) From here on, darkness will start to arrive later.
How will US debt unsustainability end? 6 possibilities: growth; Near-0 interest rates; Default; Inflation; Financial repression; Fiscal austerity. Probably austerity, but not for some years yet. By then, adjustment will be severe www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/11/30/how-will-unsustainable-us-debt-end/
Recessions don’t start under Dems, only Repubs. The odds 5 recessions fit by chance: only 3%.
www.splinter.com/the-economy-does-better-under-democrats-but-most-people-dont-know-that
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/03/28/the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans/
The riddle why voters vote against their own economic interest is especially puzzling under Trump. The answer may be the same as why they decide to go to the polls at all: econ self-interest is not the #1 motivation.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/29/do-voters-pursue-their-economic-self-interest/
Why do MAGAs vote against self-interest? E.g.,Trump health benefit cuts. Perhaps they are not trying to vote in their self-interest, but rather vote to express their culture.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-do-trump-supporters-vote-against-their-economic-interests-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-09
“Is This the End of the US Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege?”. Link to panel on $ at AEI 9/12/2025 with Obstfeld, Sheets, Lachman + me.
www.aei.org/events/is-this-the-end-of-the-us-dollars-exorbitant-privilege/
MAGA acts as if trying to bring back 1990, health-wise: they oppose vax, intl cooperatn, scientific research, ACA, public health...Child mortality was 34 x higher in 1900, life expectancy 40 x lower, & incomes < 1/7 of today’s.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/01/turning-medical-science-back-to-1900/
Trump would take US back to McKinley's presidency. But life expectancy in 1900 was only 47 (vs 77 today). McKinley himself, when shot, died without anti-biotics. Medical science has come far since then, eg., new vaccines saved 154 m lives. MAGA is trying to reverse that progress. prosyn.org/SCOpb3N
Ken Rogoff, Michael Strain, and others weigh in on the unprecedented pressure that Trump is applying to Jay Powell and the Fed. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-bank-of-trump-doc-2025-07
"Taylor Rule" means central bank reaction function. What is Trump's Taylor Rule? A study of 145 times that he criticized the Fed, 2013-2025, shows: when president, he says interest rates are too high. He only says too low when out of office.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/07/30/trumps-taylor-rule/
Am I the only one who worries that if we
keep saying "TACO", it will goad Trump into following through on some of his absurdly high tariff threats?
International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025 www.nber.org/conferences/....
Thanks to CB of Croatia for hosting NBER ISOM in Split and to Kristin Forbes & Ricardo Reis for organizing the program.
Stan Fischer has passed away. He was in a class of his own, as scholar, public servant, and human being. Written when he was appointed vice chair of the Fed: www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/27/stanley-fischer-great-choice-federal-reserve
The Newark airport mishap illustrates again the need for US air traffic control system reform, preferably by privatizing it.
JF: www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control.
Dorothy Robyn: www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-air-traffic-control-plan-wont-fix-the-real-problem
Federico Sturzenegger, who is Minister for Deregulation in the cabinet of Javier Milei, spoke in the Forum at HKS, 5/1: “Beyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in Argentina.” I think Argentina needed radical reform; but the chain saw in the US is pure destruction. iop.harvard.edu/events/beyon...
BEA advance GDP estimate: negative 0.3% SAAR. But we can't say this means a 2025 recession is likely. The GDP change was driven by a big rise in imports. That can result from a rise in income. Morover, in this case, it could be due to front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs. Gold in particular.
BEA will announce the advance estimate of Q1 GDP growth Friday April 30. Can one predict a recession? The most popular leading indicators are not necessarily the best places to look. Prediction markets now say 57% chance of recession.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/04/24/how-to-forecast-a-recession/
This is a rare time, when one can venture that recession odds > 50%. It hasn’t yet appeared in data, but leading indicators point that way. (Confidence, PMI, ...) More importantly, so do Trump policies. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/odds-of-a-us-recession-are-high-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-04
The "Mar-A-Lago Accord" is a proposal, discussed by CEA Chair Miran & Treas. Secy. Bessent, to force foreign govts to agree to depreciate $ + restructure the US Treasury securities they hold. It's supposed to keep the $ as #1 reserve currency! www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/23/no-mar-a-lago-accord/
Most forget last 80 years of relative peace & prosperity were unique in human history. A rules-based internatl order, under US leadership, made it possible. Now Trump is throwing it all away. Video of an AEI panel on Trump implicatns for world economy. www.aei.org/events/trump-and-the-world-economy/
Trump & his officials told us the economy would boom from day 1, but now say there will be some disruption in the short run. It's as if unremitting chaos in federal personnel policy & trade wars could be predicted to have negative effects on the economy. news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
On 3/3, as Trump reiterated tariffs on Canada+Mex would go into effect at midnight, I wrote he would postpone at the last minute, as he had done in the past: www.koreaherald.com/article/10434345
But now, was I right or wrong?
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/06/trumps-far-out-negotiating-positions/
With Krugman in Lisbon in 1976. USAID paid for our MIT team to advise Portugal's central bank, despite our youth.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-up-to-...
I hate to disagree with Justin Wolfers. But I don't believe that DOGE has genuinely saved enough government money to be able to buy each American 3 cups of coffee.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/
Musk says that with all the money he saves by spending cuts, he will be able to distribute the proceeds to American taxpayers by a rebate. Absurd!!
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-tax-cuts-elon-musk-doge-us-debt
A small special interest blocks FAA privatization, impedes Air Traffic Control & allows crashes like Thursday's over the Potomac.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control/
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-to-fix-its-broken-air-traffic-control-system-america-should-copy-the/
Imagine a look-back on 2025 from 1/1/2026: A stock market crash precipitated by an intra-GOP budget fight & credit downgrade. Unexpected Trump reversals, e.g., on abortion & military interventions abroad.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/01/11/retrospective-on-the-first-year-of-trumps-second-term/
