๐ฎ๐นโThe Italian government seeks to hold a referendum on reforming the judiciary. What is at stake? Proponents say it's a technical reform that will address persistent issues with the organisation of Italian judges and prosecutors. Detractors point to a power grab. What's the deal here? 1/
I know the feeling. But trust me on this: it's a novel for history geeks.
Have you read the Kindly Ones by Jonathan Littell? It self-consciously overreaches but recreates the Nazi intellectual Zeitgeist convincingly, with a lot of differentiation.
Now that everyone is paying attention to Hungary thanks to Orbรกnโs threats to EU Ukraine policy, an obviously cynical campaign ploy, itโs another good moment to remind everyone weโve been talking about the election and scenarios such as these for the last two months. This is our latest episode:
Agree!
We probably pay a bit too too much into the system for what we get but at least it is "good" to "very good" in quality overall.
There's also the fact that many social democratic parties haven't necessarily followed the erstwhile voters whose social mobility they enabled. The "original" working class has thus shrunk, with immigrant labour plugging the gap. Since many can't vote, the political voter base doesn't recover.
I've been working on this for ages in various countries: the story of the intelligence buildup to Putin's 2022 invasion. How did the US and Britain find out so much, and why were Europe and Ukraine sceptical.
It's a long one:
www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
๐ต๐ฑโ๏ธPresident Nawrocki vetoes the law reforming the National Council of Judiciary, dispelling any hopes the Polish government had of reforming the rule of law through new legislation. Major, but expected, defeat for the new MoJ Waldemark ลปurek and his plans. 1/
Hungaryโs opposition leader Pรฉter Magyar says allies of PM Viktor Orbรกn are preparing a โRussian-styleโ sex-tape smear campaign ahead of Aprilโs election.
He says his ex-girlfriend set a honey trap in 2024 & Orbรกnโs camp plans to release the footage soon
๐ With two months until Hungary's next parliamentary election, time to take a look at what the foreign policy offer of Tisza, the main opposition party leading the polls ahead of Fidesz, would mean for the EU.
Read my piece published by the New Politics Project of @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/tisz...
๐ช๐บ๐ช๐บ New starterpack featuring researchers and analysts working in or thinking about Europe.. and active on Bluesky
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Enjoyed discussing the European implications of the Hungarian election with @zecsaky.bsky.social and her explaining to me why in several cases I don't quite get it
twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/trump-hasn...
Turning this around for the sake of argument: given the historically "big tent" nature of the Labour party, combined with the size and shallowness of the large majority, Starmer is in effect managing a multifarious coalition, even if that's not the reason he has been so cautious.
Keeping it in the realm of personalities: how fair do you think it is to describe Keir Starmer as the Olaf Scholz of UK social democratic politics, but with a large majority? Scholz was much more of a political animal as well as surprisingly flippant & emotional, but the end result is much the same.
Some kind of equivalent of what Alan Smithee is for film directors who disown their work.
In other words, Hungary may very well remain a major problem for the EU regardless of whether Tisza is successful or not. There is every chance that Orban and Fidesz will rebound in opposition. They have planned for exactly this scenario since their first defeat in 2002. 3/3
Even if Tisza succeed in winning, its majority will almost certainly not be the 2/3 required to rewire the state itself. It is unclear whether Tisza, with a mere absolute majority, have a plan to properly deal with the Fidesz shadow state. Poland shows that isn't necessarily the case. 2/3
My understanding is that the Commission as well as key capitals are assuming that Orban will be gone in April. If true, that is naive. Notwithstanding the capture of the state apparatus by Fidesz, the mixed, disproportional, quasi-rigged electoral system may produce wildly unpredictable results. 1/3
๐ธ๐ฐ๐ช๐บโ๏ธIt took a while, but the Commission is finally, belatedly, getting tough on Fico's softcore rule of law crisis. While not as severe as in ๐ญ๐บ๐ต๐ฑ, the slowly crawling dismantling of checks and balances by the Slovak government is finally getting the attention it deserves. 1/
That's miraculous news indeed, congratulations Anders! Must have been a gauntlet of a journey.
excellent summary of where we are now - BUT analysis by Political Capital shows that Orban could win back his 2/3rds constitutional majority with 45% of the vote while Magyar would have to win 55% of the vote to get a simple majority. See my analysis here www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how...
And by the professionals themselves, no less:
spectator.sme.sk/politics-and...
maybe just to put this in context this is someone whose own psychological state is regularly questioned on the domestic scene (post-assassination attempt)
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
Yes, and in that sense a powerful and valuable account. But the general tendency for Austrian writers of the time, of which Zweig was just one, to tinge everything in sepia becomes an exercise in legend rather than history making - but the popular imagination tends to conflate the two.
Controversial opinion: World of Yesterday is undeniably a classic, a timelessly rich voice of the period, but I find it a bit overrated. The nostalgic melancholy and starry-eyed reminiscence is over-egged, bordering on sentimental.
Very true. The relationship between the DNA and SRI was also cosy, often operating in the space between laws. The anti-corruption push was undeniably a good thing imho but it was heavy-handed - and without accompanying preventative reforms, effectively just mowing the grass.
The judiciary in Romania never "worked" in truth. Under the Kovesi era the anti-corruption agency (DNA) and the prosecutors took advantage of a highly favourable opportunity following the 2012 political divisions that paralysed the politic
Been thinking a lot about the European response to the new US National Security Strategy (followed up by Trump's interview).
Europeans panicked after J.D.'s Munich speech and Zelenskyy's humiliation in the White House but then got complacent when US policy seemed to resume its usual course.
