Todd Friesen

Pacing #ManitobaMarathon this year with the 3:50 crew! 1,250 full marathon racers registered this year up 20% from last year's sell out! Amazing! Who's joining me?

NDP has no leader, no money, no leverage and thus no coalition offer is pending.

To think back when Scheer (as incompetent as he is) narrowly won against Bernier and O'Leary (vastly more incompetent)? They had a competent, Michael Chong, on the ballot but only drew marginal support. As much as I disagree with Poilievre, he is better than anyone the CPC would consider.

I have mixed feelings whether the CPC should replace Poilievre. I think they have better leadership candidates to choose from, but they won't choose them, and they risk choosing someone far worse. CPC should win the next election (LPC 5th term?). I don't know if I'd want to roll the dice on this.

Final Update:

2025 Federal Election Seat Projection.

What do you think will happen tonight?

Canada Strong | Liberal Party of Canada Download our plan

A few comments on the @mark-carney.bsky.social platform released today. You can find it here: liberal.ca/cstrong/.

I provided some 'sounding board' advice here and there to those working on the platform. As always: I disclose, but you can decide what weight to put on that.

Thread below...

I would say that the NDP are really only truly favoured to win 1 riding (Edmonton-Strathcona), but they are close enough in several that they are expected to win 3 or 4, I just don't know for sure which ones.

The new model is less blind to NDP-LPC swing votes, and between CPC-PPC. Generally, lost PPC votes are assumed to move to CPC, NDP to LPC. There is a lesser degree of LPC->CPC and CPC->LPC, as this bridge is often tougher to cross.

I took a deeper dive into AB which has the largest swing of votes in the country (generally from NDP->LPC). But, this created some anomalies, and decent models can vary in projections from 3 LPC seats to 10. The truth might be in the middle. There appears to be a lot of close ridings in Edm/Cgy.

My prior model was more simplistic using proportionality between 2021 results and regional polling splits from the prior week. (I would also normalize the results such that each riding's vote distribution adds up to 100%, and each party's vote % reconciles with the polling averages).

New Canada seat projection model.
200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).

LPC: 198
CPC: 121
BQ: 19
NDP: 3
GRN: 1
IND: 1

Thanks!

Lib 206
Con: 119
BQ: 14
NDP: 3
Green: 1

Blue Jackets need a regulation win tonight to stay in the playoff hunt. Could we see a goalie pull in a tie game late in the 3rd? Canadiens on verge of clinching if Jackets don't win in regulation.

I wonder that too, though our trade relationship with China is a bit strained with Chinese EV's and Canadian canola strapped with high tariffs. Carney is also indicating he is looking outside of China for trade partners. Can China withstand an international boycott?

I've seen plenty of these mailers in the past, but this one steps up the level of egregiousness! How many false dichotomies and other logical fallacies can you spot?

I'm curious for anyone in Elmwood-Transcona, which election signs you've seen the most of (NDP/LPC/CPC)?

It's probably one of the harder to predict ridings in Canada right now. 2024 By-election saw very small LPC vote share, but it was much closer when Trudeau won a majority.

Based on these, LPC majority if they get 38%. CPC majority if LPC drops below 35.5%. At 44%, LPC still in comfortable majority territory.

2025 Canada Election projection.

Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.

Only one candidate can be identified as Rhino on the ballot, but they all are.

They are all (or almost all) Rhino Party. They pick a riding every election, and flood their entire slate of candidates there. It's a nuisance, but won't impact the outcome. None of these candidates get double digit vote counts.

I haven't seen any economists touch on these questions yet. Usually more focused on how bad tariffs are in general. And I suspect these are difficult questions to answer.

Similar question for exports. With reciprocal tariffs on US goods, does that give Canada an edge on products we compete with the US on exporting?

Curious where this will all go.

So, assuming these tariffs significantly reduce global trade with US, and manufacturing capacity doesn't go anywhere, would Canadian import prices come significantly down (excluding US)? Then again, maybe US demand is inelastic, they can't produce things more cheaply, and will pay the tariffs.

Down 6% today. Curious about where this ranks for 2-day drops.

IMO, the Green party should not qualify on the basis they have a seat and run a slate of candidates. The other criterion is 4% polling, but you only need to meet 2/3 criteria. The bar needs to be set higher. I wouldn't oppose a 10% threshold. This time it would narrow to 2 candidates.

Maybe Jack Layton was the last successful debater, which helped prompt an orange wave in QC. That was in the context of a 5-person debate, so moments can happen. But, I think Mulroney vs. Turner moments are largely a thing of the past.

I'm skeptical the federal debates will bring much opportunity to shift sentiment. 5 leaders is too many, and one of them is polling at 2%, and two others under 10%. 5 leaders = 20 (5x4) possible 1v1 confrontations. Far too little time, and any jabs will feel scripted.

NEW 🧵

A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far:

1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively.

These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.