Yes it has, particularly on Ukraine, where the UK having Trump’s ear has repeatedly brought Trump back from the brink and helped protect European security. Stand up where it’s right and helpful too (as Starmer has) but rising to the noise and lashing out to win votes is dangerous hubris.
For me, UK security and prosperity is far more important than winning a few extra votes in 3 years time.
There will be lots of pressure on Starmer at PMQs to make headline-grabbing statements about Trump. He must resist. Starmer was right to limit the UK’s involvement in Iran but shouldn’t unnecessarily provoke Trump with jibes given the possible economic consequences. Head down, carry on.
The Iranian regime is evil. But attacks like this undermine regional stability + security in the short term, and just as concerningly, undermine the principles of sovereignty and int. law long term that are integral for global security. The era of so called global values is in rapid decline.
Very interesting (and positive) to see the UK, Germany and France making a joint statement and acting in lockstep on the US-Israel attacks on Iran. We’re slowly seeing a revival of the E3, which given current global instability and breakdown on transatlantic relations, could be incredibly powerful.
Really looking forward to returning to Kings, where I did my Masters, in a few weeks for an IWD panel on gender and the under recognition of women’s achievements and its implication for politics and policy, a topic very close to my heart. Open to all.
www.kcl.ac.uk/events/invis...
As with the last time Trump u-turned on Chagos, this isn’t about the deal itself it’s about Trump’s wider foreign policy. Last time it was a stick to beat Starmer with for standing up for Greenland. This time it’s about Iran and Trump’s increasingly likely plans to attack it.
BFPG Director @evieaspinall.bsky.social speaks to Bloomberg TV in a wide-ranging interview covering the Munich security conference, negotiations between the US, Russia and Ukraine, US-Iran nuclear talks, and Europe's relationship with China and the United States.
This morning BFPG Director @evieaspinall.bsky.social was on Bloomberg TV discussing the Munich Security Conference and the future of the world order ahead of US-Iran nuclear and US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations today.
As Kier Starmer embarked on the first trip by a UK Prime Minister to China in 8 years, our Director @evieaspinall.bsky.social spent the morning on Sky News discussing the trip and providing analysis on what it means for UK-China relations and the UK more broadly.
Spoke to Politico about what Starmer should seek to gain/raise on his trip to China and why it’s so important we have a public facing China strategy.
www.politico.eu/article/expe...
Another tightrope for Starmer to walk as he heads off to China - as we saw with Carney, Starmer will want deals that drive growth but Trump will be v sensitive to anything he sees as his Western sphere of influence moving closer to China. Particularly challenging given last week’s Greenland crisis.
On Wednesday, Director @evieaspinall.bsky.social appeared on the Media Show to discuss the value of the BBC World Service as a soft power asset, and a tool for promoting truth, democracy, accountability and human rights.
Our Director @evieaspinall.bsky.social spoke spoke to Steve Holden on LBC about the Prime Minister’s response to Presdient Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs on the UK and other European allies over Greenland.
Multiple things can be true at once:
1. Carney's speech was excellent
2. The UK needs to diversify away from reliance on the US
3. Starmer should be firm with Trump BUT also be more constructive than other leaders as the UK plays a key role as a bridge between the US and Europe.
Trump stating that he won't use force to invade Greenland is a positive step. But it was always a negotiating tactic, and with the threat of tariffs still looming, there is still a bumpy road ahead.
Doing more media this afternoon:
4.15pm - BBC Radio 4, the BBC Media Show discussing Greenland, Iran and internet blackouts
5pm - Channel 5 News discussing the future of UK-US relations and developments at Davos.
Looking forward to speaking to @lbc.co.uk at 11.40am on how the UK is and should be approaching relations with Trump.
My review of Trump's first year in office, his foreign policy and what it means for global security and stability for @bestforbritain.org
5. Similarly Starmer talked up the UK's commitment to Greenland and commitment to the principles of sovereignty. No greater clarity on what the UK will do if Trump invaded Greenland but Starmer (I think rightly) is working on the assumption he won't invade.
4. In turn, Starmer was fairly forthright in his condemnation of tariffs as 'completely wrong' while still talking down the possibility of retaliatory tariffs to avoid a trade war. A more constructive approach than e.g. Macron, with emphasis on 'calm discussion' with Trump.
3. Much of Starmer's speech was focused on a domestic audience, in particular the 'national interest' and justifying the current approach (slightly more forthright but still cooperative) as the best way to limit the impact of disruption to energy, food, and jobs.
2. Within this, Starmer placed a strong focus on the importance of cooperation with the US on defence and intelligence. Here lies the crux of the UK's challenge - we're in dangerous times and we are heavily intertwined with the US defensively, limiting what the UK can do.
1. Starmer reaffirmed commitment to UK-US relationship that is 'strong, constructive and focused on delivery' - a very pragmatic framing rather than pulling on the emotional or the 'special relationship'. A notable shift in framing reflecting the transactionalism Trump has brought to relations.
Five key takeaways from Starmer's statement on UK-US relationship this morning.
Surreal start to the week waiting for an early morning PM statement on the relationship with the UK's biggest ally. Starmer will likely take a softer approach than others like Macron to avoid fanning the flames but he'll still need to appease a nervous domestic audience too.
I haven't. The equation for Europe has fundamentally shifted over the last week. Before Europe was rightly doing its best to maintain its relationship with US, that's increasingly untenable and we should be increasingly concerned about the future of European security, NATO and the economy.
While Trump often talks bigger than he acts on tariffs, the US essentially trying to blackmail Europe over territory which is already part of NATO is deeply troubling and a sign of how little regard Trump has for the transatlantic relationship. Increasingly concerning times.
5. Venezuela - Falling down the agenda quickly but watch out for Trump's meeting with opposition leader Machado today.
4. China - There will be lots of debate in the coming days about the proposed Chinese mega embassy, highly likely to be approved esp. as UK and Europe look to diversify their partnerships in light of Trump.
