Seth Abramson

*FYI*

The decision capped a rapid downfall for the three-term lawmaker and former Navy cryptologist. bit.ly/4scTze5

Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base

U.S. forces likely bombed an Iranian elementary school on Feb. 28 during an operation targeting a nearby military base, a New York Times analysis suggests. It is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran — and no side has yet taken responsibility.

Exclusive: Trump on rising gas prices during Iran operation: 'If they rise, they rise' President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was not concerned about rising U.S. gas prices driven by the widening Iran ​conflict, telling Reuters in an exclusive interview that the U.S. military operation was his priority.

Exclusive: Trump on rising gas prices during Iran operation: 'If they rise, they rise' reut.rs/4aRAHuN

NYT.

OpenAI Had Banned Military Use. The Pentagon Tested Its Models Through Microsoft Anyway Sources allege the Defense Department experimented with Microsoft’s version of OpenAI technology before the ChatGPT-maker lifted its prohibition on military applications.

In 2023, OpenAI’s usage policy explicitly banned the military from accessing its AI models. But some OpenAI employees discovered the Pentagon had already started experimenting with Azure OpenAI, a version of OpenAI’s models offered by Microsoft, sources say.

“How am I going to sell my house with this crap in my backyard?” ICE wants to turn warehouses into detention centers. The suburbs are fighting back.

ICE wants to turn warehouses into detention centers. The suburbs are fighting back.

Government argues ICE facility protest was actually left-wing terrorist plot A first-ever trial against an alleged ‘antifa cell’ in Texas could be a playbook for cracking down on administration critics.

Texas prosecutors are arguing that an ICE facility protest was actually a left-wing terrorist plot. The first-ever trial against an alleged ‘antifa cell’ could be a playbook for cracking down on Trump administration critics.

More here:

It implies that we are visitors in someone else’s country.

Counterpoint: absolutely not

Kristi Noem going out praising herself for her courageous public service when all she did was steal our money and lie to America and brutalize the vulnerable and screw her boyfriend is pretty much the exit from DHS I expected of her

It is very important she eventually go to prison

I feel like the one thing most everyone can agree on is that nothing Trump and Hegseth say can be trusted, from casualty figures to claims that Iran is begging for a negotiation, from the prospective timeline of the war to whether either man gives a shit about the Iranian people

The way the US and UK are acting—not invoking Article 5, refusing to discuss what happened, providing flight paths that seem slightly improbable, shifting stories slightly—suggests to me something's off and that, whatever's going on, *these three* Iranian denials may be accurate.

The final allegation Iran denies are multiple drone strikes on Azerbaijan. But they were against an Azeri enclave; Turkey is being very weird and fidgety about them; and Azerbaijan has lately been at war with Armenia.

So... pretty dubious Iran is trying to draw it into a war?

I'm not being coy; Hegseth and the IDF offer three pieces of evidence Iran (not they) is trying to widen the war: a missile and two drones. Hegseth is all but admitting the first was a misfire. He won't speak of Cyprus—and *no one* can explain it beyond it being a Lebanon launch.

Hegseth says a missile fired from Iran flew over Iraq, then Syria, never entered Turkish airspace and was downed in the Eastern Mediterranean...

...headed for Turkey.

Would love to see maps of the trajectory.

Maybe there's a reason he says there's "no sense" this triggers A5.

Fair point!

CYPRUS UPDATE II:

* US won't comment on attack on closest ally
* UK caught off-guard by how drone acted, and will not say why
* Only UK explanation is guess: maybe a pro-Iran militia in Lebanon/Iraq (locals who know where secret US spy planes are kept on a UK base in Cyprus? No)

CYPRUS UPDATE:

* "Shahed-type" drone, not "Shahed"
* Confirmed fired from Lebanon, not Iran
* Hit secret US storage space Hezbollah almost certainly wouldn't know about, but allies would
* Hit location where chance of casualties was near zero
* "Looped" around to hit benign area

There's no reason for Iran to attack NATO nation Turkey—but a drone did. Iran denies sending it.

There's no reason for Iran to attack a UK base in Cyprus—but a drone did. Iran denies sending it.

Now Azerbaijan has been attacked. Iran denies involvement.

I think this is Israel.

If you were hoping for a DHS secretary even *one iota* better than Noem, stop hoping.

Mullin will be easily confirmed, and he's nothing more than a vacuous thug *gleeful* to be the mailed fist of the president against citizens and non-citizens alike.

There was a post I was going to post days ago—and didn't—that I now wish I had:

"The two most *brutally stupid* United States Senators are Markwayne Mullin and Tommy Tuberville."

The first of these two colossal imbeciles is now going to be the next DHS secretary, starting 3/31.

Keep in mind, 90%+ of those saying "Israel wouldn't do this" or "America wouldn't do this" are the same people who've *never* accepted the hundreds of *proven* atrocities both nations have committed—while accepting 100% of Iran's (equally proven) atrocities.

That's not objectivity, it's radicalism.

I am more than happy to indulge alternative theories of the case: e.g., Azerbaijan (via Turkey) and Kazakhstan (via Russia) supply around 70% of Israel's crude oil, and Cyprus a small amount of refined. But that would not explain these being denied one-offs *not* fired from Iran.

All this is easy to research, including the US retrieving an intact Shahed in recent years and making drones based on Iran's design. They're among the armaments the US has provided to Israel, which can now easily launch from the Iran-proxy position—Lebanon—these drones came from.

But candidly, it's not for those of us saying the facts of this war don't support the theory of Iranian strikes on Turkey, the UK and Azerbaijan to prove our case. It's on those who insist that Iran *is* behind these strikes to explain their *extraordinary* claim that Iran *wants* NATO to attack it.

In literature, we call this the "unmarked case": that is, if we fail to comment on a situation and note what makes it distinct, we let *whatever the existing presumptions are* govern. Right now the presumption is that Iran is at war with the world. But I rather suspect Israel is.

Some may ask, "Why develop a theory on this?" The answer: because we must. And urgently. Unsolved mysteries in a hot war *require* a "theory of the case" to determine what to do next. If we let default (improbable) suppositions reign, NATO could enter this war on false pretenses.

All this comes in the context of the US/IDF trying to get other nations to join their efforts—and seeing that the only thing moving the needle on that is having such nations' own assets be put under threat.

Meanwhile, Iran gains nil from these strikes. They're devastating to it.