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PML

@mortimerleepaul

Economist, Ex BoE, IMF, BNPP, NIESR. Runs a specialist school. Brit, living in NY. 2 kids, 2 cats, 1 snake, 4 dogs, 1 wife. Opinions my own, even the wrong ones

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01.11.2024
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Latest posts by PML @mortimerleepaul

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Ed Miliband: Unilateral UK Energy Disarmament The North Sea drilling ban will have zero climate effect but high UK economic costs.

Ed Miliband: Unilateral UK Energy Disarmament
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

26.02.2026 23:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

You mean we aren’t going back to the normal of expecting abnormal returns?

18.02.2026 00:37 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Of course, the radical change in the supply of low skilled undocumented labor has zero to do with faster productivity growth…

16.02.2026 19:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Will AI Raise Productivity, Lower Inflation and Rates? The effects may well not be what the new Fed Chair believes.

Will AI really allow the Warsh Fed to cut rates?
We need evidence, notbassumption.
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

16.02.2026 19:05 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Warsh, Rate Markets and Precious Metals The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair has not changed the market's central rate scenario much, though it should have, but it has shifted the rate distribution. Uncertainty abounds.

open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

03.02.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It took Deep Thought 7.5 million years to work out the answer was 42. How long did it take Blue Sky?

And what was the question?

12.01.2026 21:44 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Finance minister quote of the year 2025:
Rachel Reeves, May 2025,

β€œwe are beginning to turn the corner”
How very true.

01.01.2026 15:05 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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UK: The Insatiable Public Sector The public sector has swallowed virtually all the increase in UK GDP over recent years Projections of little future change in the public sector's share of the economy are totally unrealistic.

UK: The Insatiable Public Sector
Read my Substack here: bit.ly/4ryD4cg

30.11.2025 13:27 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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UK Budget: Spend Today, Tax Tomorrow Markets are oblivious to the obvious

UK Budget: Spend Today, Tax Tomorrow
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

27.11.2025 16:35 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Bank of England, MMT, and Money Creation Endogenous Money Is Not New β€” The Bank of England Understood It Half a Century Ago

How do banks create money? By employing reserves? Lending out deposits? Or through lending? The last - money is endogenous. MMTers think the Bank of England "admitted" to that in 2014, whereas the approach started in the late 1960s. Read my Substack here

bit.ly/488PZZu
@bankofengland.bsky.social

23.11.2025 20:13 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Britain’ Budgetary Choices

23.11.2025 12:57 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Come on, Robert, you’re just defending your own inbred metropolitan elitist buddies who have the same β€œcorrect” world view. Get some self awareness.

11.11.2025 04:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The BBC started as a news broadcaster with a little entertainment thrown in. It’s now an entertainment channel with a bit of news from a metropolitan elite perspective grafted on the side.

Once it told Britain what was happening. Now it tells Britain what to think β€” between game shows.

11.11.2025 04:33 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The culture of the BBC is elitist, arrogant and self-serving. It views its critics as ignorant barbarians ( like those who voted for Brexit) and accepts without question that its own take is the ”right” one.

The canker is deep rooted, permeates the heartwood, and is probably irradicable.

End it.

11.11.2025 04:27 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

A couple of points.
1) how come oecd Europe has price rises way beyond the countries comprising it?
2) i though Brexit was supposed to be a disaster for British food prices, so why is tge food-core gap smaller for the UK than the EU ?

07.10.2025 12:00 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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US: Low Corporate Sector Inflation The contributions of labor costs and profits as the long-term drivers of inflation are subdued. Service price inflation is a problem for the FOMC, and and therefore for jobs

US: Low Corporate Sector Inflation
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

14.09.2025 18:00 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Amid talk of an IMF program for the UK, what advice would Chancellor Denis Healey give? He was at HMT for the 1976 IMF program and raised the top marginal rate to 83% in 1974 and added a 15% surcharge on unearned investment income, ie a 98% top rate, in 1975.

In the style of James Gilray

12.09.2025 16:33 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

How about, "Wait 'till we get going, then we'll show you what chaos REALLY looks like"

06.09.2025 15:12 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In other words, a crisis is in the works. With so many holders of gilts having been hot money ( not sure of the stats for other countries), dumping, and then big short positions, probably explains the extent of the sell-off.
There's the smell of blood in the water, and the sharks are circling...

03.09.2025 10:12 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

A simple factor model of real yields explains 83% of the variation in the G7 up until 2024. That means that real yields are a global phenomenon The UK factor loading (ie the extent to which it follow the global trend historically) is close to 99%
A break from global trend is therefore significant

03.09.2025 10:12 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Tariffs Take a Tumble The Appeal Court ruing striking down many new tariffs will have profound effects

Tariffs Take a Tumble
The ruling has BIG economic and constitutional implications open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

30.08.2025 11:36 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Jackson Hole: Inflation First Among Equals I expect the speech to be more hawkish than the market prices. It will greatly displease President Trump.

Jackson Hole: Inflation First Among Equals

Powell will greatly annoy Trump today.
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

22.08.2025 12:08 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Las Vegas: Canary in the Coal Mine Fewer visits to Vegas mean underlying consumption has stalled

Las Vegas: Canary in the Coal Mine
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

17.08.2025 19:36 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Look who dropped in for dinner.

Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.

Fortunately the dogs were in...

14.08.2025 23:16 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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US: July CPI Preview I expect a stronger inflation print than the consensus

US: July CPI Preview
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...

11.08.2025 21:01 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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PML's Macro Focus (@mortimerleepaul) Check out my new post!

Inflation makes itself at home in the UK
substack.com/@mortimerlee...

10.08.2025 14:06 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

The narrative is that people are sick of what they have. I think that's a coherent story. What's not coherent is the thrashing around, Brexit, Corbyn, Boris, Labour landslide. If we ask, "what the heck do people want?" the answer is "they've no clue, but it's not what they've got."

09.08.2025 14:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The arrogance of the metropolitan elite, who ignored the huge red flag of the Brexit vote. People clearly felt ignored.

05.08.2025 14:48 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Trust in the media has evaporated, and now people just read stuff online that reinforces their priors

05.08.2025 14:43 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The (we thought) CIA guy on the mission shook my hand and said, "Congratulations, you just got rid of your first government." Two years later, I was offered a slot as special advisor to the PM, but I couldn't take it.

04.08.2025 15:16 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0