daniel a. smith

How will Trump Running Venezuela Play in the U.S.? A Quick Look at Venezuela-born U.S. Citizens Registered to Vote in Florida

How will Trump Running Venezuela Play in the U.S.?
open.substack.com/pub/election...

Treating a friend to voter registration in a Divided America As partisanship strengthens in the United States, unaffiliated voter registration is also increasing. We conducted an original survey experiment to understand voter registration choices among register...

Nice to see this out! Open access @plosone.org journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

Well, it's finally out...

watermark02.silverchair.com/qqaf107.pdf?...

Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly…

"Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting" is now out at Electoral Studies www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

"Welcome to the Free State of Florida" In-Migration and Rising Republicanism in the Sunshine State

open.substack.com/pub/election...

News Flash: Restricting Voter Registration Activities Deters Voters from Registering Voter Registration Crisis in Florida

open.substack.com/pub/election...

Trump and Mail Voting Haven't we heard this before?

open.substack.com/pub/election...

Continue to be awed by my old man, now in his 90th year, Emeritus prof at Penn State, who founded the field of sport history. Walter Byers and the NCAA | University of Tennessee Press share.google/8aBlmclCEJhC...

To all those who celebrate #InternationalJazzDay a little of George Gershwin's Embraceable You by Jim Snidero and friends at the Bird's Eye Jazz Club in Basel

Now out at State Politics and Policy Quarterly www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Was quite enjoyable, tbh....

As the Miami Herald reports, "Doral, Miami-Dade’s Venezuelan stronghold, to empower cops in Trump immigration crackdown" At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

In light of the latest ICE crackdown in Miami, I’m ungating my Substack analysis from a couple weeks ago on the support for Trump in Doral. open.substack.com/pub/election...

Which Precinct in Doral is the Trumpiest? At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

open.substack.com/pub/election...

Nearly 1/5 Miami-Dade voters were born in Cuba and 57% are Republicans. Nearly 82% of GOP Cuba-born U.S. citizens voted in the 2024 GE. With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation. Will these actions erode Cuban-American...

May have time this summer to dig into this Q some more. open.substack.com/pub/election...

Which Precinct in Doral is the Trumpiest? At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

open.substack.com/pub/election...

Nearly 1/5 Miami-Dade voters were born in Cuba and 57% are Republicans. Nearly 82% of GOP Cuba-born U.S. citizens voted in the 2024 GE. With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation. Will these actions erode Cuban-American...

open.substack.com/pub/election...

Figure 1. Predicted probabilities for registering NPA/Unaffiliated by strength of partisanship. Note: Predicted probabilities generated from the estimates in the Florida and North Carolina models in Table 2.

Hey, this looks familiar! Be sure to check it out!

Florida Bars State Professors From Testifying in Voting Rights Case (Published 2021) After being hired as expert witnesses for groups opposing a restrictive voting law, three University of Florida academics were told they could not participate in the lawsuit against the state.

Congratulations, Michael Wines, on your retirement from the @nytimes.com. And thank you for breaking this bellwether story back in 2021 on the crackdown on faculty free speech at UF. www.nytimes.com/2021/10/29/u...

What do we know about Cuba-born registered voters in South Florida? With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation

electionsmith.substack.com/p/what-do-we...

‘Deport every person under the sun’: ICE detains Cubans during immigration appointments Beatriz Monteagudo and Laura de la Caridad Sanchez are two Cuban women detained by ICE after routine appointments in Miramar. More than a dozen others were also possibly detained.

"Federal authorities in South Florida have recently detained at least 18 Cubans."
My next Substack post for subscribers will be a deep dive into changes in party registration & turnout of the more than 460K Cuban-born registered voters in FL, 305K in Miami-Dade

www.miamiherald.com/news/local/i...

Will the deportation of Venezuelans affect the party registrations of Doral voters? At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

open.substack.com/pub/election...

Federal court finds Ohio's "fair and truthful" review of ballot initiatives runs afoul of Anderson-Burdick #ELB Decision in Brown v. Yost, stayed pending appeal to the Sixth Circuit: Citizens of Ohio have the power to amend the state constitution. Proponents of an amendment must follow a process that culminates...

And also pleased to see this decision by a Federal District Court Judge in Ohio concerning the rights of citizens to amend the state constitution via the initiative process. Several direct democracy scholars and I submitted an amicus brief on behalf of the plaintiffs. electionlawblog.org?p=149008

Federal Court Strikes Down Restrictive, Suppressive Texas Voting Measures in S.B. 1 that Limited Voting Assistance Media Contacts:  LDF, media@naacpldf.org The Arc, dilworth@thearc.orgDelta Sigma Theta Sorority, Inc., inquiries@deltasigmatheta.orgArentFox Schiff, nathan.carlile@afslaw.comRay Shackelfo

Highlighting some good news on the legal front. Proud to have served as an expert for the HAUL plaintiffs, working with the amazing attorneys at NAACP LDF, to successfully challenge SB 1 in TX. www.naacpldf.org/press-releas...

DHS official defends Mahmoud Khalil arrest, but offers few details on why it happened Homeland Security deputy secretary Troy Edgar offered few details on the Trump administration's legal reasoning to deport Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil.

From the Nathan Thurm School of Law... www.npr.org/2025/03/13/n...

Addressing Risks from Perkins Coie LLP By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1. Purpose. The

This is insane: www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

In honor of the passing of Robert Clark A note on the election of African American state legislators in the modern South

In honor of the passing of Robert Clark
open.substack.com/pub/election...

I'm hoping some of you might be interested in making a charitable contribution to support UF students working with @electproject.bsky.social and me in our Election Lab. Here's the direct link to give: Election Science Group Fund (023435) www.uff.ufl.edu/giving-oppor...

Some musings on method of votes cast in Florida Fewer than one-in-four Republicans voted on Election Day in the 2024 General Election

open.substack.com/pub/election...