(Models Available To Subscribers)
Alberta Provincial Polling:
UCP: 49% (-4)
NDP: 36% (-8)
ALP: 9% (+9)
ABP: 2% (+1)
Others: 2%
Abacus / Feb 25, 2026 / n=1000 / Online
(% Change With 2023 Election)
Check out AB model details from @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/alberta
Among Conservatives - "How long do you believe the war in Iran will last?"
🔵 Less Than A Month: 15%
🟢 1-6 Months: 39%
🟡 6 Months-1 Year: 18%
🟠 1-5 Years: 17%
🔴 5-10 Years: 2%
⚫️ 10+ Years: 2%
⚪️ Unsure: 7%
Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...
"How long do you believe the war in Iran will last?"
🔵 Less Than A Month: 9%
🟢 1-6 Months: 27%
🟡 6 Months-1 Year: 19%
🟠 1-5 Years: 21%
🔴 5-10 Years: 5%
⚫️ 10+ Years: 4%
⚪️ Unsure: 15%
Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...
Among Liberals - "How long do you believe the war in Iran will last?"
🔵 Less Than A Month: 6%
🟢 1-6 Months: 23%
🟡 6 Months-1 Year: 19%
🟠 1-5 Years: 26%
🔴 5-10 Years: 7%
⚫️ 10+ Years: 3%
⚪️ Unsure: 16%
Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...
Liberals are inching higher on the seat count this week
Latest model update is out tomorrow morning
Polling Average In Quebec:
🔴 LPC: 42% (-1)
⚜️ BQ: 28% (-)
🔵 CPC: 19% (-4)
🟠 NDP: 7% (+2)
🟢 GPC: 2% (+1)
(% Change With 2025 Election)
"Do you think the war in Iran will make life in Iran..."
All:
Worse: 34%
Better: 28%
No Difference: 19%
Among Conservatives:
Better: 54%
No Difference: 16%
Worse: 16%
Among Liberals:
Worse: 45%
No Difference: 23%
Better: 11%
Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...
"Do you think the war in Iran will make the world..."
All:
Less Safe: 47%
Safer: 27%
No Difference: 18%
Among Conservatives:
Safer: 51%
Less Safe: 25%
No Difference: 18%
Among Liberals:
Less Safe: 63%
No Difference: 19%
Safer: 11%
Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...
"Do you think the war in Iran will make Israel..."
All:
Less Safe: 43%
Safer: 26%
No Difference: 18%
Among Conservatives:
Safer: 47%
Less Safe: 27%
No Difference: 19%
Among Liberals:
Less Safe: 56%
No Difference: 19%
Safer: 14%
Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...
"MPs should not be allowed to switch political parties after being elected to the House"
Agree: 62%
Disagree: 38%
Ipsos / Feb 26, 2026
"It is likely that enough MPs will switch parties to the Liberals to give Carney a majority government"
Agree: 64%
Disagree: 36%
Ipsos / Feb 26, 2026
"If my MP switched to a different party, there should be an immediate by-election in my district"
Agree: 69%
Disagree: 31%
Ipsos / Feb 26, 2026
"Three MPs elected under Poilievre's Conservatives have left and joined Carney's Liberals. Does this make you more or less approving of..."
Carney:
No Difference: 40%
More: 37%
Less: 23%
Poilievre:
No Difference: 44%
Less: 34%
More: 22%
Ipsos / Feb 26, 2026
Quebec - Independence Polling:
Remain: 71%
Independence: 29%
Leger / March 2, 2026 / n=1000 / Online
Alberta - "If an independence referendum takes place, how do you think (X) would vote?"
Danielle Smith:
Independence: 53%
Remain: 29%
Pierre Poilievre:
Remain: 57%
Independence: 22%
Jason Kenney:
Remain: 57%
Independence: 16%
Naheed Nenshi
Remain: 77%
Independence: 6%
Abacus Data / Feb 25, 2026
"When do you think the next federal election should be?"
Now: 10%
This Spring: 11%
This Fall: 13%
In 2029, As Scheduled: 49%
Leger / March 2, 2026 / n=1627 / Online
Mark Carney Approval Polling:
Approve: 61% (+2)
Disapprove: 31% (-3)
Leger / March 2, 2026 / n=1627 / Online
(% Change With Jan 26, 2026)
Satisfaction With The Federal Government:
Satisfied: 59% (+1)
Dissatisfied: 33% (-2)
Leger / March 2, 2026 / n=1627 / Online
(% Change With Jan 26, 2026)
Alberta - Independence Polling:
Topline:
🔴 Remain: 64%
🔵 Independence: 26%
Full:
🔴 Strongly Remain: 56%
🔴 Somewhat Remain: 9%
🔵 Somewhat Independence: 13%
🔵 Strongly Independence: 13%
Abacus Data / Feb 25, 2026
Freebie subscriber model for everyone of the Leger poll
LPC 242
CPC 83
BQ 16
GPC 2
(Models Available For Subscribers)
Federal Polling:
LPC: 49% (+5)
CPC: 35% (-6)
BQ: 5% (-1)
NDP: 5% (-1)
GPC: 3% (+2)
Others: 2%
Leger / March 2, 2026 / n=1435 / Online
(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)
Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com
Leader Net-Approval Polling:
🔴 Carney: +25%
⚜️ Blanchet (QC): +4%
🟠 Davies: -6%
🟢 May: -7%
🔵 Poilievre: -7%
🟣 Bernier: -27%
Ipsos / Feb 26, 2026
"Should Canada have another federal election in 2026?"
No: 44%
Yes: 37%
Ipsos / Feb 26, 2026
(Models Available For Subscribers)
Federal Polling:
LPC: 44% (-)
CPC: 36% (-5)
NDP: 8% (+2)
BQ: 7% (+1)
GPC: 3% (+2)
PPC: 1% (-)
Ipsos / Feb 26, 2026 / n=826 / Online
(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)
Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com
Support For US-Israeli Airstrikes Against Iran:
⚫️ Oppose: 49%
🟢 Support: 34%
Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
Support For US-Israeli Airstrikes Against Iran:
⚫️ Oppose: 49%
🟢 Support: 34%
Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
18-29 Year Olds - Approval/Favourability Polling:
Mark Carney:
🟢 Approve: 59%
⚫️ Disapprove: 36%
Pierre Poilievre:
🔴 Unfavourable: 47%
🟢 Favourable: 44%
Liaison / Feb 28, 2026
35-49 Year Olds - Approval/Favourability Polling:
Mark Carney:
🟢 Approve: 63%
⚫️ Disapprove: 31%
Pierre Poilievre:
🔴 Unfavourable: 51%
🟢 Favourable: 38%
Liaison / Feb 28, 2026
50-64 Year Olds - Approval/Favourability Polling:
Mark Carney:
🟢 Approve: 60%
⚫️ Disapprove: 33%
Pierre Poilievre:
🔴 Unfavourable: 56%
🟢 Favourable: 34%
Liaison / Feb 28, 2026
Canadians are concerned about the war overseas ignited by the American-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran
Many Canadians also believe this war could drag on for years
Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
