This one is probably hard to blame on ChatGPT.
06.03.2026 09:06
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This one is probably hard to blame on ChatGPT.
As the IAA debate kicks into full gear, itโs important to highlight that Europe has learned to block Chinese acquisitions of strategic assets, but Chinese investments in Europe continue to pose economic security challenges.
In @sandertordoir.bsky.social and my new insight, we find ๐
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๐ฎ๐นโThe Italian government seeks to hold a referendum on reforming the judiciary. What is at stake? Proponents say it's a technical reform that will address persistent issues with the organisation of Italian judges and prosecutors. Detractors point to a power grab. What's the deal here? 1/
Glad to be in this great @europeandemocracyhub.epd.eu report on new approaches to defending global civil society.
I examine the growing phenomenon of exiled/relocated civic actors and offer ideas about how democracy promoters can support them better.
europeandemocracyhub.epd.eu/new-approach...
Orban has reneged on his commitment. Hungary now blocks the EUR 90bn EU loan for Ukraine.
The EU might be forced to go back to lending against Russias frozen assets.
So Iโm re-upping Paduano and my December piece on the ins and outs of this EU reparations loan.
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
Outstanding piece. Contains well-evidenced key takeaways:
"Democratic survival ... is determined in large part by how obvious the threat to democracy is. The more people recognize that an elected leader is trying to destroy democracy from within, the less likely it is that said leader will succeed"
Here is the Media poll showing Tisza well ahead of Fidesz. This is quite the bombshell -- it shows not just a widening lead but the possibility of an opposition supermajority. There is still 7 weeks to go though and Fidesz's campaign machinery, all-in on Ukraine, is just kicking into full gear.
Hungary's most trusted pollster, Median, came out with polling showing a massive lead for the opposition this morning. But why is Orban's power suddenly under threat? I've tried to answer this question for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/h...
I found that this is wrong. Democracy actually is a powerful motivating force for a critical slice of the population *if they perceive a real threat*.
I call this the "legibility" theory of democratic backsliding: the more legible the threat, the more likely it is to prompt effective pushback.
I wrote a piece for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social to mark 4 years of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, on lessons European leaders shd learn & the priorities they shd act on. Maybe most important: Europe needs to be on the pitch, not in the stands: Ukraineโs security is our security.
1/ โEU membership without veto rights is acceptable for Serbia. The most important aspects for us are the single market, as well as the free movement of goods, people and capital. These are the key values we wish to realise through EU membership,โ Aleksandar Vuฤiฤ, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. โฌ๏ธ
This seems to be an emerging issue but will other member states follow Warsaw? Here's a detailed report on risks associated with Chinese intelligent and connected vehicles from the OSW www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...
On The World ๐ today:
@joshuacoe.bsky.social: Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on fighting from abroad
@orlabarry.bsky.social: The future of Viktor Orbรกnโs 16-year rule is uncertain
๐ Russia's opposition movement still exists โ but it's 'rudderless'
Tune in ๐ป bit.ly/3xyRRfD
The EPP has a long tradition of shielding its own against EU scrutiny on the rule of law. It long protected Orbรกn when Fidesz was still member of the EPP, and now it is blocking rule of law fact finding missions to Meloniโs Italy, who has become an important EPP ally.
Also, a welcome change compared to earlier CEE investments in WEurope and concerns re oligarch takeover www.cjr.org/q_and_a/lefi...
Dennik N investing in EUObserver is your rare good news about media sustainability. Dennik has been an outlier, bucking the trend of closures & falling readership in Slovakia (and frankly, globally) euobserver.com/203123/euobs...
As EU politics looks more and more nervously at the elections in 2027, expect a very packed decision-making agenda in the second half of 2026, with this just one of many examples:
"if you face things that threaten the stability of your country, I know that President Trump would be very interested" is an interesting thing to read weeks ahead of elections for which Orban is trailing behind badly.
The FT reporting says the Commission may release fresh funding, as part of the SAFE pot.
Hungarian opposition leader Pรฉter Magyar has declared that, if he wins April's elections, his government would immediately extradite former Polish justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who was recently granted asylum in Hungary, back to Poland, where he is wanted on criminal charges.
And of course, the broder context would make it even worse given the AG opinion lambasting the Commission for unfreezing โฌ10B earlier. As @profpech.bsky.social noted here with non-existent reasoning bsky.app/profile/prof...
Looks like this reporting is about releasing the first tranche of SAFE. But if Hungary does receive the โฌ2.4B, that'd directly contradict what Commissioner Serafin said two weeks ago, that SAFE is subject to conditionality audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/media/video/...
Cuts to overseas aid by the UK are set to go further and faster than those made by the Trump administration in the US, as Sir Keir Starmerโs government wrestles with funding pressures
www.ft.com/content/ad52...
De Visegrรกdgroep, een alliantie van Polen, Hongarije, Tsjechiรซ en Slowakije, bestaat vandaag 35 jaar. De Russische aanval op Oekraรฏne heeft het verbond in tweeรซn gesplist.
www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/... in @nrc.nl
Dank aan @zecsaky.bsky.social en @ivovdw.bsky.social
So this is exactly what many of us were watching (and frankly, were a bit surprised it didn't happen earlier). The details are fuzzy but this would show a much more strategic foreign policy reorientation in the US and really start putting that National Security Strategy into practice.
The idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market".
Here is why:
Dear friends on Bluesky, it's been an overwhelming week since the mass layoff at the Post. I'll be continuing the work and would be so grateful if you sign up here to keep up with my future journalism. docs.google.com/forms/d/1dlh...
Also an updated chart showing where things stand with EU funds to Hungary. (I know it's ugly, sorry!) If the โฌ10B is rolled back, it would have a massive impact.
Adding to this excellent explanation of today's AG opinion that conditionality has been the EU's most powerful tool on rule of law to date. But the problems highlighted are not new. See an earlier assessment here www.cer.eu/insights/fre...