Rather than simply being ineffective, relying on air power alone can actually be counterproductive, a lesson the Trump administration now seems destined to learn the hard way in Iran, columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
OMG..."War is hell..." he said the line. He said the line. Internet comment section is overseeing this conflict. Nothing to worry about.
If you want to drag China into this, this is a good way of doing that.
Regardless of the future outcome, it looks unlikely that were facing a short conflict. Of course, Trump has shown a staggering short attention span for conflicts in the past, but this feels different. I have additional work on the aftermath of absolute defeats. But that's for another day. Fin/
Keep in mind that stating a goal and achieving that goal are two different things - just ask Russia about that. However, it is unlikely Iran is going to have significant states coming to its aid (unless they blackmail China over blocking the Strait of Hormuz?). 4/
However, I note that there are undoubtedly more sources of CCPs. The new conflict between the US/Israel and Iran has the necessary ingredients for us to observe an absolute outcome. This is of course enhanced by regime change being a stated goal. 3/
The argument is straightforward. Wars with credible commitment problems and a large imbalance of power between the combatants increases the likelihood of such an outcome. Now, in the paper, I argue that territorial disputes were a major source of credible commitment problems. 2/
Here's a little paper I published a few years ago about absolute war outcomes. These type of outcomes include regime change, which seems to be the main goal in Iran. 1/
So, Thursday I start teaching Pape's Bombing to Win in my Statecraft class. Warned my students it'd probably be pretty relevant. Folks, I'm tired of being relevant.
As soon as the Olympics and the State of the Union were done, it was game on.
My new piece on @goodauth.bsky.social: Can anyone stop Trump from going to war with Iran?
Spoiler alert: almost certainly no.
goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
This is why I don't gamble. On the plus side, Canada probably just avoided some extra tariffs on Monday.
My big prediction for tomorrow morning. The US will lose a close one to Canada. The silly penalties will finally catch up with them.
Applications for the 2026 Journeys in World Politics workshop (10/1-10/3) in San Diego are being accepted (due 6/1). The workshop features Kathleen Cunningham & Leah Windsor as senior mentors. Christina Schneider is our local host! Visit the site below to apply.
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Has anybody made the "I guess Kraft isn't getting his happy ending tonight" joke?
Hey journal editors, I haven't been asked to review a paper since June. I know you need reviewers. Hit me up.
10 degree wind chill in Pensacola
Can we impose tariffs on cold air from Canada? Asking for a friend.
In addition to teaching my Statecraft class, I'm also teaching International Political Economy. My Dry January pledge really doesn't stand a chance.
So, I guess Indiana is pretty good at football.
One of the last R&Rs I did, I told the editor there was nothing the authors could do to convince me their variable choice was correct. But I wasn't going to hold up the paper, and the editor was free to ignore my objection if they wanted to. Paper was published 😆
I didn't expect my "Dry January" resolution to be tested so soon. Yet, here we are.
This Winterclassic is not very compelling. Perhaps having the crowd nowhere near the ice isn't a good thing?
So, I guess Indiana is pretty good at football.
Too damn hot in Pensacola for Christmas.
This is rough for a Michigan boy. Merry Christmas?
New class of battleships to be operational in 2 and a half years...
SEC, SEC, SEC???
Texas A&M vs Miami is a good argument for going back to a 4 team playoff.
Peanut Butter Fudge
Second batch of peanut butter fudge for the season. First batch was perfection, so only down from there.
