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Berna Devezer

@devezer

Metascientist @ uidaho. I work at the intersection of behavioral sciences, statistics, and philosophy. Love thinking and talking about science. Post lots of cat and food pics. Allergic to unsolicited advice.

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Latest posts by Berna Devezer @devezer

I knew I forgot something!

07.03.2026 07:27 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
me sitting on a low, long, concrete platform with words Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz UniversitΓ€t carved in it

me sitting on a low, long, concrete platform with words Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz UniversitΓ€t carved in it

me and Leibniz, we go way back

07.03.2026 07:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I have my suspicions. Drunk on nervous liquor, you never know.

07.03.2026 07:14 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

edition*
it's getting late; the brain is mush

07.03.2026 07:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I waited for Mead to discover Newton's occult works and alchemical writings to explain the drivers of poisoning in much later addition. Alas... he might have drawn the line somewhere.

07.03.2026 07:11 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Me: Wow fascinating how little we knew about so much 300 years ago

Hubby: de Moivre wrote the first serious work on probability theory with Doctrine of Chances in 1718 and added the first special case of Central Limit Theorem (de Moivre-Laplace theorem) in the second edition

07.03.2026 05:55 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

What any of this had anything to do with Newton, no one seemed to understand. Which appears to be the main reason historians chided him.

He ended up tending to Newton as a physician in his later years so at least his fandom paid off in some way!

07.03.2026 06:28 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In the 9th ed of his book on poisoning, Mead switches gears from Newton's Principia to his Optiks (still a devoted fan), renounces his earlier mechanistic explanation and decides that poisons can't be acting on blood because their effects are too sudden, so they must be acting on nervous liquor!

07.03.2026 06:26 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Due to my earlier research I also remember him shrugging off the idea of someone else replicating his experiment as unnecessary (not using such generous words either) because he already showed why it should work and that it worked! No one should take heed of anyone else.

07.03.2026 06:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

LMAO very on character!

07.03.2026 05:56 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Me: Wow fascinating how little we knew about so much 300 years ago

Hubby: de Moivre wrote the first serious work on probability theory with Doctrine of Chances in 1718 and added the first special case of Central Limit Theorem (de Moivre-Laplace theorem) in the second edition

07.03.2026 05:55 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

well it did make me laugh out loud, derivative or not!

07.03.2026 05:47 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Quite surprisingly, Mead was able to offer some common features when explaining such distinct cases: poisons obstructing blood circulation, a process of fermentation, poisons damaging the internal fabric of the body mechanically (thru picking & tearing).

Apparently historians hung him out to dry.

07.03.2026 05:46 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

glad I wasn't drinking something hot while reading this

07.03.2026 05:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Newtonian physician Richard Mead wrote Mechanical Account of Poisons in 1702. His general mechanism of all poisons is based on a collection of five essays on poisonous things. Namely: vipers, tarantulas and mad dogs, poisonous minerals, opium, and bad airs.

A very puzzling combo to say the least!

07.03.2026 05:30 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

ah the 'I don't like X >> it's because X is a and b >> a and b makes X morally wrong >> no one should like or do X >> those who do X are both stupid and evil' pipeline

most confusing part is that it genuinely do be like that sometimes. not always though. not even most of the time.

07.03.2026 01:35 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

the suffering one must endure so one can endure more of the same suffering later. life can be so hard sometimes πŸ˜‚

06.03.2026 23:23 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Surely he was waiting for the rest: Jeff, the magnificent. Jeff, the divine. Jeff, the transcendent.

06.03.2026 22:56 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

now that you mention it hmmmmm

06.03.2026 16:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ₯°

06.03.2026 16:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

i should question him about his choices!

06.03.2026 16:26 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

my faith in this take is getting stronger every day

06.03.2026 16:11 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

on the right side*

06.03.2026 16:09 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

on my phone i deliberately started scrolling closer to the edge of the screen on the side to avoid accidental liking. now there's a save button exactly on that path.

06.03.2026 16:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

does anyone else's saved page include a bunch of random posts they must have accidentally saved while scrolling or is it just me? either that or my tastes change really fast and the past berna is currently unrecognizable to me.

06.03.2026 16:04 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

OK the actual closure to this 7-parter is here:

"It’s only from the incremental pieces that aren’t precisely reproducible or clean that we can see the big picture. Don’t worry about the distribution of p-values. Do think hard about how to produce reproducible data and coding artifacts."

06.03.2026 15:35 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Congratulations! Nice trick to get it done when no one else was looking πŸ˜‚

06.03.2026 15:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

That clip of Timothee Chalamet being like β€œno one watches the opera or ballet” is wild and I am dying over every ballet and opera acct (correctly) being like β€œwe’ve been here for hundreds of years before you and we’ll be here for hundreds of years after you” lmao

05.03.2026 22:28 πŸ‘ 1442 πŸ” 226 πŸ’¬ 13 πŸ“Œ 0

Anyhow ultimately this work wasn't as interesting to me as I hoped it would be. It's just a theoretical version of Devezer's urn again.

06.03.2026 01:35 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It upsets me that we have no standards whatsoever on this. Kitchen sink citation habits make it so much worse.

06.03.2026 01:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0